What Will the New England Patriots' Revamped Front 7 Look Like?

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Time to reset the depth chart.

With several injuries and a pair of midseason acquisitions, the New England Patriots defense is about to look a whole lot different in Week 8 than it did in Week 1.

The Patriots have already lost defensive tackle Sealver Siliga to short-term injured reserve until at least Week 12 and linebacker Jerod Mayo to IR for the year. Now, add defensive end Chandler Jones to the list of players who will not be suiting up for the Patriots on defense for a length of time. Shalise Manza Young of The Boston Globe reports that Jones will miss "about a month" with a hip injury.

We're over a decade removed from the Patriots' dynasty defense, and we've now arrived at a dystopian defense.

To respond to the shakeups, the Patriots announced a trade with the Tennessee Titans for linebacker Akeem Ayers, and a separate Globe report indicates the Patriots have signed free-agent defensive lineman Alan Branch.

How will those players fit into the defense? Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is not entirely sure yet.

"He's played linebacker, he's played defensive end in sub situations," Belichick said of Ayers' best positional fit in his defense. "We'll start working with him. ... I'd say he's got some versatility, but we'll see."

It will also depend on which alignment the Patriots prefer as their base defense at this juncture. 

Position	Starter	Backup
DE	Chris Jones	Zach Moore
NT	Vince Wilfork	Casey Walker/Alan Branch
DE	Dominique Easley	Zach Moore
OLB	Jamie Collins	Akeem Ayers/Zach Moore
ILB	Dont'a Hightower	Chris White
ILB	Deontae Skinner	Chris White
OLB	Rob Ninkovich	Akeem Ayers/Zach Moore

When the Patriots have been in a base defense this season, it's been mostly the 3-4 alignment. They were mixing and matching with Vince Wilfork, Casey Walker, Dominique Easley and Chris Jones on the line. Chandler Jones was primarily used as an outside linebacker in this alignment, with Rob Ninkovich lined up on the opposite side and Jamie Collins and Mayo on the inside. Dont'a Hightower played a variety of linebacker spots in this alignment, as well.

That alignment will instead look like the one shown in the chart above. It's an especially stout front against the run but does not look as favorable in passing situations; neither Ninkovich nor Ayers is renowned for his coverage ability.

Zach Moore is kind of a wild card in this group. He has played some at the defensive end spot in a three-man line but could also potentially stand up to an outside linebacker role—though he has not dropped into coverage much, if at all, this season.

Ayers could find himself in the starting lineup, depending on how quickly he learns the defense.

If he starts, Collins could move inside, which would send Deontae Skinner to the bench. 

Position	Starter	Backup
DE	Rob Ninkovich	Zach Moore
DT	Vince Wilfork	Casey Walker/Alan Branch
DT	Chris Jones	Dominique Easley
DE	Zach Moore	Akeem Ayers/Dominique Easley
SLB	Dont'a Hightower	Akeem Ayers
MLB	Deontae Skinner	Chris White
WLB	Jamie Collins	Akeem Ayers

If the Patriots want to go with a 4-3 instead, this is probably what it would look like.

The Patriots have some options at the defensive end spot opposite Ninkovich. If they want to go a little heavier against the run, Easley or Chris Jones would be the best option. Moore could continue to get looks if they are looking for more of a pass-rushing presence on the edge.

The linebacker group is also a little undecided and dependent on the immediacy of Ayers' impact. If he can pick up the defense quickly, Hightower could move inside.

From this perspective, the Patriots may be better off plugging into a 4-3 defense if only to prevent multiple players from playing out of position. A 3-4 would cast someone like Moore or Ayers into a stand-up outside linebacker role where he may not be comfortable dropping into coverage on a consistent basis, where a 4-3 would accentuate his ability to get after the passer.

There are multiple configurations the Patriots can use in a base defense, but in the four weeks that Chandler Jones will be absent, the Patriots will probably spend most of their time in a nickel defense. Whether that is a 3-3-5 (three linemen, three linebackers) or a 4-2-5 (four linemen, two linebackers) will probably depend somewhat on the situation and the offensive alignment.

But ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss has been tracking the Patriots' use of base and sub defense all season and notes that they have been in their sub-package 59.4 percent of the time through seven games. Thus, we can expect to see more of the sub than the base, anyway.

Team	Pass plays	Run plays	Pass play %
Bears	281	162	63.4%
Broncos	226	159	58.7%
Colts	317	221	58.9%

That's especially true with three pass-heavy teams ahead on the schedule.

A 4-2-5 would likely consist of Ninkovich and either Moore or Ayers at defensive end, with Wilfork and either Walker, Chris Jones, Easley or Branch at defensive tackle. Collins and Hightower are the most likely duo at linebacker in those situations.

A 3-3-5 could have a three-man line with some combination of Wilfork, Walker, Jones and Easley, and it would probably have two of Collins, Hightower and Ayers on the outside and Skinner in the middle. 

In truth, though, none of these lineup predictions really means anything. The Patriots will always be changing their strategy from week to week, sometimes even from series to series, depending on how they feel they can best attack their opponent.

There could be some benefit from giving one group a majority of the workload, but do not expect the Patriots to show their hand in that regard. The Patriots are preparing for anything. 

"You've got to be able to do a little bit of everything," Chris Jones said. "You've got to know what the guy next to you is doing, just in case he does go down or we're trying to switch things up, then you've got to be able to play that position. ... We try to prepare for most situations we believe we may get."

The good news is, with Siliga and Jones both eyeing a mid-November return, the defense could get better by the end of the season. The bad news is, the Patriots will have to patch things together for the next few weeks. 

What will that look like? We think we know, but we have no idea. 

Unless otherwise noted, quotes are obtained firsthand.

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