Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons: Breaking Down Atlanta's Game Plan
If the Atlanta Falcons don't at least compete this week versus the Detroit Lions in London, the game planners and head coach all need to be stranded there and fired. The Falcons have too much talent and potential on this team to be 2-6 after the Lions game, regardless of just how good the Lions have been this season.
Atlanta doesn't deserve to lose this game by more than a score. The Falcons need to realize that there are going to be some challenges when they face Detroit this week outside of the standard England-week jet lag and off-kilter timing.
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Atlanta needs to follow a specific plan to win and make sure to adjust at halftime. Right now, the Falcons are 2-5, but they could just as easily be 5-2 with the proper halftime adjustments against some of the weaker teams on the schedule.
Offense
Pass Protection
Detroit has the best defensive pass rush in the NFC this season. Through seven games, Pro Football Focus has credited that defense with 28 sacks, 33 hits and 81 pressures for a combined 142 quarterback disruptions on the 299 passing plays the defense has seen. That means the Lions put pressure on the quarterback more than 47 percent of the time and have one of the highest rates in the league there.
The Falcons, on the other hand, have the complete opposite of talented play going on with their offensive line. Atlanta is allowing pressure on just over 31 percent of their snaps through the season. However, over the past three games, the Falcons have allowed it on more than 37 percent of their snaps. That's unacceptable against a team like the Lions.
Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are both having career seasons in their contract years. Ziggy Ansah is having a great season as a sophomore player in the NFL.
The Falcons are going to get a reprieve on the edge from what they have been facing despite going against Ansah, though. Atlanta has seen Terrell Suggs, Jason Pierre-Paul and Jared Allen in back-to-back-to-back weeks with rookie Jake Matthews.
The Falcons should be able to play better against these defensive tackles in England than they have played against other defensive tackles all year, due to the cohesion of the unit looking better and Justin Blalock healing up a little bit better from his back injury. That being said, it's going to be a long day for the Falcons with their third starting center of the year in James Stone.
Atlanta has to keep Matt Ryan upright if it wants to have a chance against the Lions. When Ryan is pressured like he has been on 110 snaps this year, he's got a 58.9 passer rating and thrown three of his seven interceptions. When he isn't pressured, he has a 106.6 passer rating and despite throwing almost double the passes, has just one more interception. If Ryan stands at the end of the game, the Falcons can win.
Passing Attack
If the Falcons can keep Ryan upright, he can exploit the Lions defense through the air in a big way. They have been susceptible to the intermediate routes. The Falcons are extremely talented there and should focus on using Roddy White as a slot receiver, considering Harry Douglas is looking like he's going to miss yet another week. White is looking slower than his usual self, but he can still attack the mid-range.
Devin Hester and Julio Jones both have the speed to decimate the Lions deep, and Atlanta should go after the average Detroit secondary there quite often. Running max-protect schemes should be a common thing for Atlanta, as they need to make sure Ryan can get the ball off. Ryan also has to trust his tight end Levine Toilolo to catch the ball on those intermediate routes.
Toilolo hasn't been excellent this year by any means, but he can only go one way from how he's performed, and that's up. Toilolo has been arguably the worst tight end in the league this season and should he continue on his current track, the Falcons should look into potential trade options to upgrade over the Stanford product.
Last but not least, the Falcons need to have more of Antone Smith involved in the passing game. With Douglas not looking like he'll get any better, Smith should run some of the routes that he did in the slot and a lot of the screens he used to run. Smith on a bubble screen could be a scary proposition for the Falcons offense, as it would give them a potential scoring threat every time it was run.
Screens could also help the Falcons keep the great Lions pass rush at bay. By forcing Detroit to work more laterally than vertically, Atlanta could end up tiring them out before they took some deep shots. With how Devonta Freeman and Jacquizz Rodgers have done out of the backfield on routes, some swing routes to them wouldn't be bad ideas either and could complement the running game.
Running Offense
The best way for the Falcons to improve their running attack against anyone would be to start putting in their best run-blockers and running more six- and seven-linemen formations. However, without resorting to that, Atlanta should look into playing their speedier backs more often. As good as Steven Jackson's career has been, his best fit is as a short-yardage and red-zone running back.
Devonta Freeman has been slowly working his way into the Falcons offense. The Florida State back has shown a propensity to get better every game as a pass-blocker, and that's led to more snaps. He needs to get the run game going, and Atlanta would be wise to play him as the starting running back, eating up most of the snaps and giving the team an explosive element it needs on all downs.
Jacquizz Rodgers is the team's best pass-blocker and deserves to see a ton of snaps for that alone. However, he's not a great running back and tends to take what the offensive line gives him. His best role is on 3rd-and-short where he can turn a one-yard out into that three-yard gain that extends the drive. The Falcons need to get him more involved than he has been this year, though.
Antone Smith is also someone who isn't nearly involved enough in the offense. He's someone who should see 12 touches a game, and he doesn't even see 10. If the Falcons can get him the ball more so that he can make those big plays, the offense will only get better. Atlanta really needs to involve him more than he currently is involved. It doesn't make sense to take the ball out of his hands.
Two-back sets should be something the Falcons look into way more. Rodgers and Smith or Rodgers and Freeman would be combinations that would make it interesting for Ryan and the rest of the offense to use. Because they both present a threat in the passing game, having Freeman and Smith both run the ball out of a shotgun could create a new, unexpected element against a very good Lions defense.
Defense
Pass Rushing
The Detroit offensive line hasn't been a group of world beaters as pass-blockers this season. According to Pro Football Focus, the Lions have allowed Matthew Stafford to be sacked 21 times, hit 11 times and hurried 48 times. They haven't done well giving him a ton of time in the pocket to hit his receivers. The Falcons need to exploit speed advantages that they have on both the interior and exterior of the line.
At left tackle, Riley Reiff has had a solid season thus far, but he would struggle with Jonathan Massaquoi and Osi Umenyiora's raw speed across from him all game. Inside at guard, Rob Sims has allowed just as much pressure as Reiff has. The Falcons need to take advantage of this by having Corey Peters, Jonathan Babineaux and Ra'Shede Hageman line up over Sims and force him to need help.
This could then allow inside-outside stunts where the 3-technique at either defensive tackle or defensive end—depending on alignment—would open an inside lane for either Massaquoi or Umenyiora to attack the quarterback and blitz through. They should try it even more often on the right side of the offensive line, where LaAdrian Waddle has been battling injuries and Larry Warford has struggled with size.
If the Falcons can use Hageman and Paul Soliai in proper rotation to force Dominic Raiola to have way too many double teams in the passing game, the Falcons could wind up getting Stafford on his butt more often than they have any other quarterback. This is going to be key for a Falcons win, because the Lions passing attack can be deadly.
The final thing the Falcons should do is have more A-gap blitzes. They ran just three against the Ravens and were able to generate a sack on them. With how the Falcons need to attack both the run and the passing game, more blitzes would be very helpful. Additionally, using some safety blitzes wouldn't hurt, despite the lack of calls there in previous games.
Pass Coverage
If Calvin Johnson is out, then pass coverage looks to favor the Falcons. Golden Tate is a tough person to guard, as he has excellent speed and understands how to run routes effectively. Outside of him, there aren't many great options for the Detroit Lions to use to attack the Falcons mediocre pass defenders with. Corey Fuller and Jeremy Ross are uninspiring as second and third wide receivers.
And if Reggie Bush is out, the backfield of Joique Bell and George Winn doesn't strike much fear into anyone through the air, as Bell's 13 catches for 115 yards make him seem like a manageable target to cover. Winn doesn't even have a catch on the season, and even Bush has been just mediocre as a receiver out of the backfield when he's been healthy.
The biggest threat to the Falcons coverage will come from the Lions' tight ends. Brandon Pettigrew has all the tools to attack the linebackers over the middle if he can just get the ball thrown his way. He has just over half as many targets (13) as Levine Toilolo (25). Eric Ebron doesn't see as many targets as he should either, with a total of 20 on the year, according to Pro Football Focus (login required).
The Falcons can impact this game through the air if they can run some coverages that aren't just soft zones, due to how average the Lions targets look without a fully healthy Bush and Johnson. The Falcons need to attack with their coverages just as much as they need to attack with their pass rush. They could end up surprising with turnovers again if they take some chances.
Run Defense
This is the spot where the Falcons should have the advantage. Atlanta's run defense has been a middle-of-the-pack defense in yards per carry allowed at just 4.12. It looks like the Falcons should have a much better game this week when compared to Detroit's running game, which averages just 3.1 yards per carry.
The Lions have been terrible as run-blockers this season. They also have a pair of running backs who are boom-or-bust type backs that have been busting more often than they boom this year. The Falcons should be able to attack them behind the line more often than they are expecting to. Atlanta has the right kind of defense to 1-gap the Lions to death and penetrate the offensive line.
If they can use Hageman and Soliai in rotation at nose tackle and Peters and Babineaux at under tackle all game, they should be able to keep Paul Worrilow and Prince Shembo clean against the Lions' mediocre offensive linemen.
Atlanta should be able to flow to the ball more effectively this week, and running some more base 4-3 and 3-4 plays would be ideal for the Falcons defense.
Against the Ravens, the Falcons played base defenses 67 percent of the time after not playing them more than 40 percent of the time through the first six weeks. Atlanta needs to trust in their front seven to make plays, because the Lions don't have the personnel to stretch the Falcons laterally. If Atlanta can stuff the run, their pass rush should be able to get home, and it would only help the Falcons as a whole.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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