Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Complete Week 8 Preview for Vikings
After last Sunday's demoralizing loss to the Buffalo Bills dropped the Minnesota Vikings to 2-5 and probably dashed any realistic playoff hopes for this year, one question pops to mind for Vikings' fans:
"Where do we go from here?"
2014 has already been a roller-coaster ride for Vikings fans. With new head coach Mike Zimmer's providing a positive spark all summer long, the team seemed to have turned a corner in plowing through a perfect 4-0 preseason and then beating the St. Louis Rams on opening day in dominating fashion.
The first shoe then dropped on September 12, when the team's best player, Adrian Peterson, was indicted on child-abuse charges. Peterson is currently on the exempt list as he awaits trial in Texas.
Things took another major turn in a loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 3, when starting quarterback Matt Cassel broke his foot and was lost for the season.
Cassel was replaced by rookie first-round draft pick Teddy Bridgewater, who filled in admirably that week and then starred the following week in a thrilling 41-28 win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Bridgewater sprained his ankle late in that win, however, and third-string quarterback Christian Ponder was forced into action in a Thursday night shellacking at the hands of the Green Bay Packers.
Bridgewater returned the following week against the Detroit Lions but has been ineffective for two games—the Vikings offense has been completely ineffective during consecutive losses.
Minnesota takes to the road this week, heading to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers, who they've dropped six consecutive games to, dating back to 2001.
You can call this matchup the "very resistible force against the easily moveable object."
The Vikings are averaging 17.1 points a game, which ranks 30th in the league (they've averaged just nine points a game in their five losses), and the Buccaneers defense is giving up 34 points and 423 yards a game, which are both last in the league.
Minnesota is passing for 183.9 yards per game, which ranks last in the league, and Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 295 passing yards a game, which also ranks last in the league.
Something's gotta give.
For the Vikings, this week's game begins a stretch of nine where they have absolutely nothing to lose. Bridgewater was drafted to be the quarterback of the future. But that future has begun early, and much of its success will depend on how quickly he can reach his obvious potential.
The Vikings have played pretty bad football for three straight weeks, particularly on offense. In the 1-5 Buccaneers they're playing a team that's even worse than they are.
Minnesota's defense is improving quickly and showing promise. Here's hoping the offense can follow suit.
Vikings' Week 7 Recap
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Stop me if you've heard this one before.
In a scene that's becoming way too familiar for Minnesota Vikings' fans, the Buffalo Bills capped off an improbable final drive that saw Kyle Orton hit Sammy Watkins with a two-yard touchdown pass with just a second left on the clock to give the Bills a 17-16 win over the Vikings last Sunday.
The Vikings gave up game-winning scores in the last minute four different times in 2013, but perhaps none of them was as heartbreaking as Sunday's loss to the Bills.
The loss dropped the Vikings to 2-5 on the season, and any realistic shot of making the playoffs may be out the window.
A win, which seemed all but assured until Buffalo converted on 4th-and-20 from its own 40-yard line with just 1:18 left, would have put the Vikings at 3-4 with two very winnable games up next on the schedule.
This one hurts the Vikings' fanbase because it probably douses any hopes for the 2014 team to make a run at being a contender.
By the time the 2013 team lost for the fourth time with under a minute to play—against the Baltimore Ravens on December 8—it was almost comical. Cordarrelle Patterson had taken a short pass 78 yards for a go-ahead touchdown with just 45 seconds left, only to have the Ravens retake the lead with just four ticks left.
It's a new season and a new defense, though, and while the 2013 Vikings probably deserved all the bad fate that came their way, the loss to the Bills stained what had been a very good performance by Minnesota's defense.
While the defense gave up the crucial score at the end of the game, this was clearly a loss that should be pinned on the offense.
Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater struggled for the second straight game, throwing for just 157 yards and one touchdown while getting intercepted twice and sacked five times.
Ben Goessling of ESPN.com reports that even though Bridgewater struggled for most of the day, head coach Mike Zimmer saw plenty of things to like in his quarterback's play, especially several throws on third down that extended drives:
"That's what we see every day out of him. He made a great throw to Jarius (Wright); two of them, I think. There are a lot of positives to take from this game. Even though it's going to show up as a loss, I do think there are a lot of positives of where we can go from here.
"
The offensive line continued to be a problem area for Minnesota, as Bridgewater was under siege for most of the afternoon. The Vikings lost two offensive line starters on the same play at the end of the first quarter, when John Sullivan suffered a concussion and Vlad Ducasse hurt his right knee.
Rookie running back Jerick McKinnon was the lone bright spot on the Vikings offense, picking up 103 yards on 19 carries.
The Vikings defense was led by Everson Griffen, who tied a career high with three sacks, and rookie linebacker Anthony Barr, who had 10 tackles and two fumble recoveries.
News and Notes
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Familiar Faces in Tampa
The Vikings will see some familiar faces across the sidelines at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier is the defensive coordinator for the Buccaneers. Frazier compiled a 21-32-1 record as Minnesota's head coach from 2010-2013 and was the defensive coordinator from 2007-2010.
Tampa Bay's head coach is Lovie Smith, who's in his first year with the Buccaneers. Smith was the head coach of the Chicago Bears from 2004-2012 and posted an 11-7 record against the Vikings in that time.
Smith hired Frazier to be his defensive coordinator just a week after the Vikings fired him, and Frazier said working with Smith was a "natural fit," according to Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press.
Smith and Frazier are clearly part of a rebuilding process in Tampa, and while the Vikings have never won at Raymond James Stadium, it hasn't exactly been a home-field advantage in recent years.
The Buccaneers are just 14-29 at home since they fired Jon Gruden after the 2009 season, according to Ira Kaufman of the The Tampa Tribune.
Bucs' current linebackers coach Hardy Nickerson recalled the Tampa glory days at home in the 1990s under head coach Tony Dungy to Kaufman:
"You had a full stadium, a packed house, with a crowd all into it. It was a tough place to play. It was an event, absolutely. But I can take you back to 1996. We'd be sitting watching video. On field goals and extra points, you could see the stands half empty and coach Dungy would say it's not going to be long before we start filling them. As this team plays better, those stands will fill up ... it's going to happen.
"
Tampa Bay is 0-3 at home this season and gave up five first-half touchdown passes to Joe Flacco in a 48-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in its last time out at home.
Ponder Giving Advice to Bridgewater
After a sterling debut as a starter, it's been pretty rough sledding for the Vikings rookie quarterback. Bridgewater's current quarterback rating of 67.4 ranks dead last among NFL starters, and he's thrown five interceptions and been sacked 13 times in the Vikings' last two games.
According to Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press, Bridgewater has been getting advice this week from Christian Ponder, the Vikings backup quarterback, who also struggled as a rookie quarterback for the Vikings in 2011.
"He just tells me that everything isn't going to be perfect. You're going to have some throws that get away from you. You're going to have some days where you're off. It's all about having a short-term memory. Forgetting the previous game, forgetting the previous play and move on to the next.
"
It never worked out for Ponder as a starting quarterback for the Vikings, so he can certainly boost his stock by being a good teammate and helping out Bridgewater in any way possible.
While Bridgewater was forced into action in just his third NFL game, Ponder underwent a similar scenario when he took over the Vikings quarterback job six games into his rookie season.
Here's a look at how the two fared in their first four games:
| Comp/Att | Yards | TD | Int | Rating | |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 69/113 | 812 | 1 | 5 | 67.4 |
| Christian Ponder | 56/111 | 744 | 3 | 3 | 71.1 |
The numbers are pretty similar, but the eyeball test says that Bridgewater has a much higher ceiling. While neither quarterback was given great protection, Bridgewater has shown a better ability to hit open receivers when given sufficient time.
Although Bridgewater has thrown five interceptions, three of them have come off tipped balls. He seems to have a higher football IQ than Ponder and looks to be learning from his early mistakes. After two early interceptions against the Bills, Bridgewater went 12-of-15 the rest of the way.
First-Quarter Troubles for Both Teams
If nothing else, the first quarter of Sunday's matchup should be pretty interesting.
While you might expect the following stat from a pair of teams that are a combined 3-10 on the season, it's still a little eye-popping: The Vikings and Buccaneers trail their opponents by a combined 123-44 in the first quarter of their games.
While neither team is getting off to a good start, Tampa Bay is much worse than Minnesota, trailing by a whopping 72-17 after one quarter. The Vikings are also struggling in the first quarter, but their 51-27 deficit almost looks palatable compared to the Buccaneers' awful margin.
Minnesota shut out the Bills in the first quarter last Sunday, which broke a streak of five straight games where the opposing offense scored at least one touchdown in its first two possessions.
The Vikings' best first quarter of the season came in Bridgewater's initial start, where he was 6-of-6 for 99 yards in a quarter that saw Minnesota score two touchdowns. The team has only scored one other first-quarter touchdown, against the New England Patriots, on the season.
Most of the Buccaneers' troubles can be traced to games against the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens, where they've managed to fall behind 21-0 and 28-0 respectively after just one quarter. (We'll note that the Falcons made it 28-0 on the first play of the second quarter.)
Maybe we should also note that the Buccaneers have been shut out in the second quarter in all but one of their games. This isn't a great football team.
| Points For/Against | 1st Q | 2nd Q | 3rd Q | 4th Q | Total |
| Minnesota Vikings | 27-51 | 36-48 | 13-34 | 44-27 | 120-160 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17-72 | 10-51 | 38-45 | 55-30 | 120-204* |
* The Buccaneers gave up six points to the New Orleans Saints in overtime.
What does all of this mean for Sunday's game? Perhaps it means nothing except that both teams will have a chance to put some points up on the board early on.
This is a game between two teams who are struggling on offense, and each should have plenty of opportunities to get untracked on Sunday. While the Vikings defense is performing better than Tampa Bay's, both units have plenty of young, talented players.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Gerald Hodges | LB | Questionable |
| John Sullivan | C | Probable |
| Vlad Ducasse | G | Probable |
| Jabari Price | CB | Probable |
| Antone Exum | S | Questionable |
| Josh Robinson | CB | Questionable |
| Chase Ford | TE | Probable |
| Corey Wootton | DE | Probable |
| Sharrif Floyd | DT | Probable |
All injury reports are courtesy of Mike Wobschall of Vikings.com unless otherwise noted.
The biggest injury concerns for the Vikings this week are center John Sullivan and right guard Vlad Ducasse, who both left last week's game on the same play.
Sullivan suffered a concussion, and Ducasse hurt his right ankle. Ducasse was a full participant in practice on Thursday and is likely to play on Sunday.
Sullivan has passed concussion protocol and was a limited participant on Thursday.
"Mike Zimmer said that John Sullivan has cleared the concussion protocol. Said Josh Robinson "wasn't going very fast" when he got hurt today.
— Matt Vensel (@mattvensel) October 23, 2014"
Cornerback Josh Robinson tweaked his ankle during Thursday's practice and limped off the field, according to Master Tesfatsion of the Star Tribune.
Linebacker Gerald Hodges, who missed last Sunday's game with a sore hamstring, remains limited in practice and probably won't play against Tampa Bay unless he sees a lot of improvement in the next two days.
Defensive end Corey Wootton, who also missed last Sunday's game with a lower-back strain, is back as a full participant in practice and will play Sunday unless he suffers a setback.
Rookie safety Antone Exum did not participate in Thursday's practice and is questionable with an ankle injury. Fellow rookie defensive back Jabari Price was limited in practice with a hamstring issue but should be OK to go on Sunday.
Defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd is still limited in practice due to his lingering ankle issue, but he played very well last Sunday and will be on the field against Tampa Bay.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Everson Griffen vs. Anthony Collins
Griffen had his best game of the season against the Bills, getting three sacks and eight tackles and being a constant disruption in the Bills passing game.
Griffen leads Minnesota and is tied for second in the NFL with seven sacks. He is just one shy of his career-high. His 25 tackles on the season are the most for any Vikings defensive lineman.
Across from Griffen on Sunday will be left tackle Collins, who's one of seven new starters on Tampa Bay who was signed via free agency this offseason. Collins signed a five-year, $30 million deal after having a great season with the Cincinnati Bengals last year.
Collins was highly sought in free agency after giving up zero sacks and just 12 quarterback hurries last season.
Like a lot of Buccaneers free-agent signings, things haven't worked out very well for Collins so far in Tampa Bay.
Pro Football Focus has given him a negative grade in four of his six games for Tampa Bay, including its last game out against the Ravens, where he gave up a sack, two quarterback hits and four hurries.
John Breitenbach of Pro Football Focus wrote this about Collins after the Ravens game:
"Signature Play: Suggs made him look foolish on one rush mid-way through the second quarter as Collins failed to get even a fingertip on the outside linebacker who faked an inside move before getting around the edge for a hit.
"
Griffen has historically been a player who goes on hot streaks for the Vikings, and coming off a three-sack game against the Bills, he should be raring to go against the Buccaneers. His quickness and athleticism should give Collins fits all afternoon.
Jerick McKinnon vs. Lavonte David
Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David is yet another draft tale that NFL teams never seem to learn from.
David was a tackling machine at Nebraska, and everyone who scouted him loved him. He's fast, has a high football IQ and tackles with authority.
But he's undersized and didn't measure particularly well at the combine. Therefore, a top-15 talent dropped to the 58th pick, where the Buccaneers were more than happy to select him.
All he's done is lead Tampa Bay in tackles by a wide margin during both his years in the league. He currently leads the team with 66 tackles, which ranks him fifth in the NFL.
David already has 350 career tackles.
Nick Perry, a bigger linebacker who measured much better at the combine and was drafted 30 spots ahead of David, has 60 career tackles.
Melvin Ingram, a bigger linebacker who also measured much better at the combine and then was drafted 40 spots ahead of David, has 57 career tackles.
Draft lessons aside, David is a Tasmanian-devil type of player for the Tampa Bay defense. He flies all over the field and has forced two fumbles and recovered another. Tampa Bay's rushing defense ranks 17th in the league but would be a lot lower without David, who's its best defensive player.
McKinnon was given the starting running back job last week by the Vikings and responded with his second 100-yard rushing game of his rookie season.
Pressed into duty with the absence of Adrian Peterson, McKinnon has proved to be a better option as the every-down running back than Matt Asiata.
McKinnon has a nice blend of speed and power and has shown good vision in setting up blocks and cutbacks. He's averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and his ability to establish a running threat should go a long way toward easing the pass rush on Bridgewater.
It's become obvious that without Peterson in the lineup, defenses that are playing against the Vikings have decided to just pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. In order to get defensive units to respect the run even a little bit, McKinnon will need to continue to prove that he can be a threat.
McKinnon had 19 rushing attempts against the Bills, and you can look for a similar type of number against Tampa Bay. With that number of carries, McKinnon is sure to be seeing a lot of Lavonte David.
Matt Kalil vs. Michael Johnson
"Kalil penalized for hands to the face. Progress. Contact with a defender.
— Jim Souhan (@SouhanStrib) October 19, 2014"
"Matt Kalil gives up another sack...thankfully this is not a drinking game.
— Dave Schwartz (@Dave_Schwartz) October 19, 2014"
"Matt Kalil is no longer the NFL's worst-rated tackle by Pro Football Focus. He's 70th while Atlanta's Jake Matthews is last at 71.
— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) October 22, 2014"
It's been a pretty rough season for Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil, who's obviously become a popular whipping post for media who cover the Vikings.
That comes with the territory when you're a fourth overall draft pick and were touted as a franchise left tackle for years to come.
The quickest way for Kalil to stop all the negative press is to simply start playing better.
Kalil made the Pro Bowl two years ago as a rookie but just hasn't been the same player since injuring his right knee at some point in the 2013 season. Kalil hasn't looked nearly as quick as he did as a rookie, and his confidence seems to be shot as he continues to play poorly in 2014.
The Vikings' future is mostly in the hands of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. It's hard for Bridgewater to learn and improve while he's constantly under siege.
This Sunday Kalil will line up across from Buccaneers defensive end Michael Johnson, who cut his teeth in the NFL playing for Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer while the two were with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Johnson had thoughts of following his former defensive coordinator to the Vikings as he entered free agency this offseason, according to Mark Craig of the Star Tribune.
In five games with Tampa Bay Johnson has two sacks, a forced fumble and 13 tackles. At this point, he's another expensive free agent (five years, $43 million) who isn't paying enough dividends for the Buccaneers.
He should be salivating getting to go up against Kalil.
As for Sunday's game, it's imperative that Kalil start playing better for the Vikings to have success in their passing game. Minnesota has to keep Bridgewater on his feet, and Kalil is an important cog in accomplishing that.
Vikings' X-Factor of the Week: Harrison Smith
Safety Harrison Smith has become the best player on the Vikings' roster.
Minnesota's secondary has shown tremendous improvement in 2014, and while Xavier Rhodes, Captain Munnerlyn and Josh Robinson are all a huge part of that, Smith is reason No. 1.
Smith is doing a little bit of everything for the Vikings; he leads the team with three interceptions, is second with six passes defensed and is fourth with 36 tackles.
He brings a swagger to the Vikings back end that's been missing for far too long. He has a very high football IQ, and he sets a good tone for his teammates by playing with a hint of reckless abandon.
If he makes a mistake, he's going to make it at 100 mph, and that's what coaches love in football players. The great thing with Smith is that he's going to make very few mistakes.
The Vikings secondary faces a very tall task (literally) against the Buccaneers, who start two 6'5" receivers in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans.
Jackson leads the Buccaneers with catches for 344 yards and two touchdowns. Evans, the rookie out of Texas A&M, is second on the team with 21 catches for 258 yards and also has two scores.
Smith will play a huge part in limiting the Tampa Bay duo from hitting on any big plays. Bills rookie Sammy Watkins became the first opposing receiver to go over 100 yards against the Vikings this season when he caught nine passes for 122 yards last Sunday.
Jackson and Evans will get their catches, but you can be sure that Smith will be there to hit them—and hit them hard when they do.
Prediction
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Teddy Bridgewater has made three starts in his NFL career.
Two of them were against very good defenses with exceptionally good front fours. The Lions rank No. 1 in the league, giving up just 290.3 yards a game, and the Bills rank 11th, giving up just 328. They rank third (Detroit) and first (Buffalo) in the league in sacks.
He struggled against both teams.
He played his best game against the Atlanta Falcons in his first start, throwing for 317 yards and posting a 98.0 passer rating. Atlanta's defense ranks 30th in yards given up per game.
Tampa Bay ranks 32nd.
All of that is to say that Bridgewater has a very good shot at bouncing back this Sunday. The good news for Vikings fans is that even while Bridgewater has struggled in his last two starts, he's gotten better as each game wore on.
He's learning from his mistakes.
There's no doubt he needs a lot more help from his offensive line and receivers and that he has to step up his own game as well.
He's been holding on to the ball for too long, which has led to him getting sacked far too many times.
The Tampa Bay game brings a great opportunity for Bridgewater to get comfortable in the pocket and learn to find receivers a little more quickly in the play and deliver the ball. The Buccaneers have just nine sacks on the year, and Bridgewater should have more time than he's had during the last two weeks.
Look for running back Jerick McKinnon to continue to impress. And as he re-establishes the running game for Minnesota, it will only help the passing game.
Cordarrelle Patterson? Who knows? The Vikings would love to see him start contributing again, as he's been virtually invisible since his explosive game against the Rams in the season opener.
"Cordarrelle Patterson said Leslie Frazier has no secret to stopping him and nobody has a secret
— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) October 23, 2014"
So far, it's been no big secret at all—just cover him. The Vikings need Patterson to start developing in the passing game, or he's a wasted talent. He's already proved that he can be an electric player with the ball in his hands, but he has to learn how to get it in his hands via the passing game.
Other than a disastrous half against the Packers, the Vikings defense has actually been humming along pretty nicely this season. Minnesota might be 2-5, but the defense deserves better than that at this point.
You could certainly categorize Sunday's game as two bad football teams. Come Sunday afternoon, one of them is going to look slightly better. Expect the Vikings to be that team.
Prediction: Vikings 26, Buccaneers 21
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