Reggie Wayne's Injury No Cause for Concern for Colts

Our sports culture is one based on reactionary thinking. So, with Colts receiver Reggie Wayne's availability in question for next week following an elbow injury with no public MRI results, it is somewhat understandable for Colts fans to remember last year's woes at receiver and begin biting their fingernails. 

But that was then; this is now. 

When Wayne went down with a season-ending ACL tear against the Broncos last year, he forced T.Y. Hilton into a No. 1 role the young receiver wasn't ready for.

The other Colts receivers weren't at all ready for a featured role in any offense; promising tight end Dwayne Allen had already suffered a season-ending injury of his own; and the Colts were playing running back Donald Brown so much they didn't have much of a receiving game at running back.

This year, quarterback Andrew Luck is spoiled for choice. Hilton has made the leap to a true No. 1 receiver. Allen has been unstoppable when allowed to run routes. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw has become a terrifying weapon out of the backfield in the red zone, and even the maligned Trent Richardson is doing well as a receiver. The role players have shifted into roles they can actually be successful in. 

Add it up, and, outside of the volume of passes he's caught, Wayne hasn't been doing much for the offense on the season. 

Player	DYAR	DVOA	Targets	Catch Percentage
T.Y. Hilton	212	26.7%	69	69%
Ahmad Bradshaw	147	63.7%	30	80%
Dwayne Allen	93	34.1%	33	64%
Reggie Wayne	67	1.2%	62	63%
Trent Richardson	65	34.9%	24	79%
Coby Fleener	49	13.9%	31	57%
Donte Moncrief	22	12.9%	11	82%
Hakeem Nicks	-10	-16.4%	35	53%

Then there's the fact that Wayne's play has declined precipitously over the past few weeks. His four-catch, 19-yard game stood out while the rest of the offense was cruising to victory over the Bengals. 

Week	DYAR	DVOA	Targets	Catch Percentage
1	10	-3.4%	13	69%
2	-14	-41.1%	7	43%
3	21	40.4%	5	80%
4	69	94.7%	8	88%
5	-3	-15.8%	12	58%
6	3	-8.3%	9	56%
7	-19	-42.8%	8	50%

The Colts are not in a position where they desperately need Wayne to be good to contend. Indianapolis' AFC South competition has done pretty much all it can to gift-wrap the division for the Colts, who stand two games up with a head-to-head win on the reeling 3-4 Texans.

The only other division leader with a lead that big is Arizona, who still has plenty to be worried about given the presence of last year's NFC Championship Game participants on its heels. 

The Colts are also in a spot where they have a young receiver who has shown himself worthy of the field in limited action. Rookie third-rounder Donte Moncrief has shown signs of being more NFL-ready than scouts initially thought, and while he will probably be inconsistent at first in a full-time role, his size and speed could result in even more downfield routes for Luck.

Moncrief was already pushing the washed-up Hakeem Nicks to the edges of the bench, seeing 23 snaps to Nicks' 19 last week. This just speeds up the coming-out party. 

The Colts can afford to sit Wayne until they feel he's as close to 100 percent as he'll be this season. It feels weird to say this just as the rest of the roster is seemingly manifesting itself as a contender, but Wayne playing like he has the last few weeks is almost an extraneous part for Indianapolis. 

It was a bit weird that head coach Chuck Pagano had Wayne out there late in the game, mostly because of how ineffective he was. I've heard from a few people I respect that Pagano might have made the injury worse by having Wayne play deep into the game. 

I don't necessarily buy that. If the 2000s Colts taught us anything it's that the whole "resting your starters" gambit is a terrific item for red barn talk: Very few people can criticize a coach effectively for his route combinations, but give commentators something simple like a sit/start decision and all of a sudden the takes go from chilly to scalding. 

I'm willing to give Pagano the benefit of the doubt. Maybe there is some record-chasing going on. (Texans wideout Andre Johnson and Wayne seem to leapfrog another receiver on the career receiving yardage list every week.) But either way, it's better that the Colts find Wayne's limits now than in three months, when the games really count. 

The Colts have certainly been gifted plenty of slack to work with by their AFC South cohorts. That, plus a rare example of good roster-planning from general manager Ryan Grigson, has created a new dynamic for the team.

The Colts don't actually need Reggie Wayne to play to have a good passing attack. And until they feel Wayne is ready to contribute as his highest level, the Colts don't need him out there. The goal here needs to be putting the best version of Wayne possible on the field when the playoffs roll around.

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.