Week 8 NFL Picks: Early Predictions Against the Spread for Marquee Matchups

We are approaching the midway point of the NFL season already. This is where the early-season narratives give way to finding real separation between contenders and pretenders. Week 8 features plenty of teams trying to prove their hot start was real while others need to make a statement quickly to avoid a downward spiral. 

Narratives drive the NFL. If you kept a notebook of how things changed from week to week with all 32 teams, you would single-handedly keep Dunder Mifflin in business for the next decade with all the paper you would use. This is the danger of each team only playing one game per week; we must react immediately to what we've seen.

There is no time to reflect on what came before the most recent game. We are an event-based society and there is no bigger sporting event in this country than a football game.  These are our predictions for Week 8 and a look at the biggest games on the schedule. 

Matchup, Spread	Pick
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5)	Chargers, 27-24
Detroit Lions (-4) at Atlanta Falcons	Lions, 20-17
Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Carolina Panthers	Seahawks, 27-20
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Pick 'Em)	Ravens, 24-21
Miami Dolphins (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	Dolphins, 26-17
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)	Chiefs, 20-16
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-7)	Patriots, 28-24
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5)	Bills, 20-13
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)	Buccaneers, 24-23
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Pick 'Em)	Texans, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)	Eagles, 27-24
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)	Raiders, 20-13
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers	Colts, 28-21
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (Pick 'Em)	Packers, 35-28
Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-10)	Cowboys, 31-13

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

This is a classic trap game, though one we should see coming because the Chargers are a team that plays to their level of competition. They lost a game against Kansas City last week they shouldn't have, but this is who they are. 

No team challenges your allegiance more than San Diego. Things appeared to be changing this season with five straight wins after a Week 1 loss, then the defense gets beat up and Jamaal Charles runs wild to bring Mike McCoy's team back to Earth. 

Yet the Chargers have proved to be a bad matchup for Denver. Last year in Denver on a Thursday night, the Chargers held the ball for more than 38 minutes to shock the Broncos and keep their playoff hopes alive. In fact, between last year's two regular-season games, San Diego held the ball for 76 minutes and 52 seconds. 

It's hard for Peyton Manning to throw four touchdowns in a game when he only has the ball for 20 minutes. By the way, Philip Rivers has been almost as good as Manning this season by ESPN's QBR metric, via John Buccigross:

Manning has a completion percentage of 68.7, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions; Rivers has a completion percentage of 67.4, 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The Chargers do come into this game with a beat-up defense, so the offense will have to control the pace and tempo of the game. They have the right quarterback to do it, as Rivers rarely makes mistakes. If they can establish some kind of running game against Denver's third-ranked run defense, another upset will happen. 

Chargers 27, Broncos 24

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-7)

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

This game is maddening to think about. The Bears appear to be reeling amid a report from Michael C. Wright of ESPN Chicago that Brandon Marshall called out Jay Cutler in a postgame locker room rant after losing at home to Miami. 

Three weeks ago, the Patriots were supposed to be reeling following an embarrassing loss to Kansas City on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady couldn't throw the ball deep and Bill Belichick didn't know how to build a championship-caliber roster anymore.

Three wins later, suddenly all is right with the Patriots' world again. The gut says to take New England for the straight up win, though falling into the dangerous trap of looking at things on paper makes Chicago look appealing. 

You can't trust Cutler to do the right thing because he so often makes mistakes in a big spot. Yet it's easy to get lost in the weapons he has to play with, especially against a New England defense that just gave up 226 passing yards to Geno Smith and 107 rushing yards to Chris Ivory. 

Matt Forte remains the best pass-catching running back in football and is on pace for a monster season out of the backfield, per Marcus Katkin of Blindside Football:

The difference, as these things in football tend to be, comes down to quarterback trust. Brady may not be what he once was, but nine touchdown passes and 914 passing yards in the last three games proves there's a lot left in the tank. 

On the other side, Cutler has thrown five interceptions in the last four games and lost a fumble in the fourth quarter of last week's loss against Miami. There shouldn't be any trust from anyone in that Chicago locker room with the quarterback because he hasn't earned it. 

If Cutler is able to get Forte, Marshall and Alshon Jeffery involved in the offense and create a couple of plays down the field, the Bears will have a chance to win. That's where the temptation to pick them comes, though it's not enough to push me firmly in their direction. 

Patriots 28, Bears 24

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (Pick 'Em)

Here's the problem with picking this game: The Packers are red-hot on offense right now, scoring 145 points since Aaron Rodgers told everyone to "R-E-L-A-X." The Saints, who have been a colossal disappointment at 2-4, are playing at home where they haven't lost in the regular season since Dec. 30, 2012. 

That's the only thing New Orleans has going its way right now. The defense is terrible, allowing 373.7 yards and 27.5 points per game. Drew Brees is regressing before our eyes, throwing another bad interception against Detroit and bringing his season total to seven with 11 touchdown passes. 

Bleacher Report's NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller even mentioned how no one wants to talk about Brees' play this season:

Then we contrast that with the unstoppable force that is Rodgers. He's got 18 touchdowns and one interception this season, the best ratio in the NFL. Jordy Nelson has been a monster thanks to Rodgers, averaging 15.1 yards per reception with six touchdowns. 

Big plays are nothing new for Nelson, who has been the best in the NFL at 50-plus-yard touchdown catches since 2011, per ESPN Stats & Info:

So we have an offense that can't be stopped playing a defense that can't stop anyone, even though the defense is playing at home. All streaks come to an end at some point. Given the way this season has gone for the Saints, the home winning streak will end is disastrous fashion. 

Packers 35, Saints 28

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