World Series 2014: Step-by-Step Guide for San Francisco to Win the Series
San Francisco sits on the cusp of baseball immortality, four games away from officially becoming baseball's next dynasty.
That's what happens when you win three World Series crowns in a five-year span.
But in order to become the newest members of one of baseball's most exclusive fraternities, the Giants will have to go through an unlikely yet not unfamiliar foe, the Kansas City Royals. It was just over two months ago that the Giants paid a visit to Kauffman Stadium, a trip that they'd like to forget.
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While the regular season and postseason are two completely different animals, the Royals head into the Fall Classic knowing that they can beat the team on the other side of the field. The Giants may believe the same thing, but unlike Kansas City, they have no recent head-to-head matchups to point to as proof.
But the game isn't played on paper or in the past.
Consider what comes next a blueprint for the Giants to follow as they look to derail a seemingly unstoppable Kansas City train and hoist the Commissioner's Trophy over their heads once again.
Don't Believe the Hype
We've heard a lot about San Francisco's experience, Kansas City's lack thereof and how that experience somehow gives the Giants an edge over their opponents.
Phooey.
It wasn't that long ago that the Giants were a wet-behind-the-ears bunch of upstarts making their first appearance on baseball's biggest stage. Out of the group that won the 2010 World Series, only Edgar Renteria, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand and Juan Uribe had ever appeared in the Fall Classic before.
Veteran reliever Jeremy Affeldt believes that experience is important, as he explained to MLB.com's Ryan Hood: "Experience is a big deal. We don't live in the past, but we rely on the past to get us through situations that we know we can pull through."
Yet a lack of experience didn't doom the Giants against Texas back then. To think that a similar lack of experience is going to put the Royals at a distinct disadvantage against the Giants is foolish.
Kansas City isn't supposed to be here—the Royals are playing with house money. Win or lose, they've already won.
The same can't be said about the Giants, who by way of their recent success are expected to contend for a World Series ring on a yearly basis.
Do More Damage Earlier in the Game
San Francisco has done a good job of getting on the board early thus far in October, crossing home plate 26 times in the first six innings, accounting for nearly 65 percent of the team's postseason scoring.
But that's not going to be good enough against Kansas City, with a bullpen that has allowed one run to score in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings combined in eight postseason games.
That lone run, by the way, came in the eighth inning of Game 3 of the ALDS against the Angels, with the Royals sitting on a six-run lead. Kansas City never even looked toward home plate, gladly giving up a meaningless run in exchange for the second out of the inning.
Simply put, the Giants cannot count on being able to mount late-inning rallies against the Royals.
Among the team's regular starters, only two have mustered an OPS above .800 over the first six innings of play in October:
| Gregor Blanco | .161 | .235 | .429 | 3/3 |
| Joe Panik | .194 | .194 | .484 | 0/1 |
| Buster Posey | .259 | .300 | .559 | 1/3 |
| Pablo Sandoval | .370 | .433 | .915 | 2/4 |
| Hunter Pence | .308 | .400 | .746 | 4/2 |
| Brandon Belt | .300 | .444 | .744 | 6/6 |
| Travis Ishikawa | .316 | .419 | .830 | 3/4 |
| Brandon Crawford | .208 | .240 | .573 | 1/5 |
While Travis Ishikawa has been a terrific surprise for the Giants—his pennant-winning home run will forever buy him goodwill and love from the Giants faithful long after his playing career ends—can the Giants really count on him to continue producing, especially in the early innings?
Someone near the top of the order—Buster Posey, perhaps—needs to pick up the slack, allowing the heart of the order to come to the plate with runners on base in the first few frames.
Not only is getting more runs on the board early never a bad thing, but it opens the door for a potential Yostian moment.
Royals manager Ned Yost has been widely criticized and questioned for some of his rather unorthodox decisions, and if there's one thing we've learned about him, it's that he doesn't like to deviate from the norm when it comes to his relievers.
There's simply no telling what he'd do if, say, the Giants were able to run a Royals starter from the game in the fourth inning.
Control Kansas City's Running Game
After going 12-for-13 in stolen base attempts against Oakland and Los Angeles, Kansas City attempted only three steals against Baltimore—and was successful only once.
Does that mean the Royals, who led baseball with 153 stolen bases during the regular season, aren't going to take off running against the Giants?
Not a chance, especially against a San Francisco team that they went 8-of-9 on stolen base attempts against in their trio of regular-season contests.
Granted, seven of those steals came against J.C. Gutierrez, who hasn't been included on the team's roster at any point in October; Tim Lincecum, who has yet to get into a game; and Andrew Susac, who got the start behind the plate while Posey was the designated hitter.
But the absence of that trio doesn't make Kansas City's speed any less dangerous a weapon.
“Anytime you get good base stealers, it’s important to do a lot of things to disrupt them," Posey told the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman. "Our pitchers have to vary their times, hold the ball, and it’s going to be important for me to make good throws.”
While Posey ranked fifth among qualified major league catchers, throwing out 29.8 percent of would-be base stealers during the regular season, he's going to need to do a better job against a speedy Royals club that will put his arm to the test.
Be Patient Against Kansas City's 'Big Three'
If there's one thing that we've learned about Kansas City's much-ballyhooed bullpen triumvirate of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, it's that all three love to bring the heat.
Per ESPN's David Schoenfield, they each throw their fastball more than 50 percent of the time: Holland (54 percent), Davis (63 percent) and Herrera (75 percent). Herrera especially loves to start off an at-bat with his heater, throwing a first-pitch fastball 89 percent of the time.
Don't think for a second that they're all heat and nothing else, however. As Dave Skretta of The Associated Press writes (via The Topeka Capital-Journal), each one the aforementioned Kansas City relievers has an equally impressive secondary offering to keep batters honest:
"All three relievers have four-seam fastballs that approach 100 mph, and all three have a devastating secondary pitch. Herrera has a lightning-quick two-seamer, Davis’s new cutter has been dynamic, and the vicious slider that Holland can unleash leaves hitters waving at air.
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As tempting as it is to swing at the first pitch, especially when the numbers say that it's probably going to be a fastball, the Giants need to take a patient approach against the trio when they enter the game.
Take a look at their postseason numbers when they're ahead in the count as opposed to behind:
| Ahead in Count | 10.2 | 4 | 0 | 0/22 |
| Behind in Count | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 9/2 |
While the opposition has managed to score only one run, it's at least gotten on base far more frequently after working the count into its favor than it has when the pitcher sits in control of the at-bat.
Win Game 1
From 2004 to 2013, the team that won the opening game of the World Series has gone on to win the title nine times. The only exception to that rule was the 2009 New York Yankees, a team that lost Game 1 to the Philadelphia Phillies but wound up winning the Fall Classic in six games.
While Kansas City's ace James Shields has allowed more than twice as many home runs on the road (16) as he has at home (7) this season, the Royals ace has been significantly better when he takes the mound in the bottom half of an inning.
| Away | 10-2 | 2.97 | 1.15 | 7.5 |
| Home | 4-6 | 3.51 | 1.22 | 6.7 |
In two postseason starts at Kauffman Stadium, Shields has been even less effective, pitching to a combined 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
That bodes well for the Giants' chances in Game 1, especially with their own ace, Madison Bumgarner, who has been the best pitcher in the postseason, toeing the rubber. Not only has he been nearly untouchable in the playoffs, but like Shields, he's been significantly better on the road this year.
| Away | 11-4 | 2.22 | 0.98 | 8.5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 4.03 | 1.24 | 9.9 |
His splits are even more extreme than Shields', and Bumgarner has done his best work in October when he's away from the cozy confines of AT&T Park, tossing 16.2 innings of shutout baseball, scattering eight hits while walking two and striking out 17.
Taking the series opener, when all signs point to Bumgarner being at the top of his game, is imperative if the Giants hope to be the last team standing when it's all said and done.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are current through Oct. 20.
Want to talk World Series or anything baseball related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
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