Sprint Cup Chase 2014: Updated Chase Odds for Each Driver After Talladega
Talladega did it again. That was about as harrowing a final 20 laps as we’ve seen all year. The desperation was tangible for drivers ninth through 12th in points—Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth—all of whom were driving hard to win the race.
And man, there were some Rebel yells when Keselowski crushed the final three laps, holding off a charging Ryan Newman to advance to the Eliminator Round.
There was nothing more wicked than Keselowski’s Redd’s Wicked Apple Ford cutting the field by another four.
And then there were eight. Read on for an updated list of odds for the remaining drivers with only four races to go.
Carl Edwards, 25-1
1 of 8
Carl Edwards hasn’t performed well in the six Chase races to date. He’s advanced this far, which says something about his team, but still, the ground is shrinking beneath his feet.
His Chase finishes have been 20th, 17th, 11th, fifth, eighth and 21st, respectively. That doesn't inspire confidence. The top four on this list have proved they can win in the Chase. Edwards will have a hard time reaching Homestead’s final four given the way the others are performing.
He’s a deep long shot at this point, but that’s more than Johnson, Earnhardt and Kasey Kahne (sorry Hendrick Motorsports) can say.
Denny Hamlin, 20-1
2 of 8
Denny Hamlin has feasted off the restrictor plate this year, which made losing in the Geico 500 at Talladega, a track where he won earlier in the year, all the more disheartening.
Hamlin failed to make that forward move that showed he was ready to break through into that top tier. That said, he’s one of eight drivers with a chance at hoisting up the championship trophy.
The Deliverminator has finished 19th, 19th and 13th at the next three tracks (Martinsville, Phoenix and Texas). Not ideal.
He too is a long shot, but with the best pit crew on the circuit, that could be the difference.
Ryan Newman, 20-1
3 of 8
Ryan “Harder to Pass Than a Kidney Stone" Newman was a boss late in the Geico 500 and just got outgunned by hungrier, more desperate drivers at the end of the race.
What Newman has going for him is his consistent racing in the Contender Round. He was fifth at Talladega, eighth at Charlotte and fifth at Kansas—this after a disappointing Challenger Round.
It says a lot that he’s made it this far, but until Talladega, when was the last time Newman felt like a threat? Maybe ’Dega was the shot of Sunoco fuel he needed.
At the next three tracks, Newman has finished 20th, seventh and 16th, and that also makes him a long shot.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Matt Kenseth, 15-1
4 of 8
When nuclear war sets in, all that will be remaining are cockroaches, Twinkies and Matt Kenseth. For a driver who hasn’t won a race in 2014, he’s managed to reach the final eight (he and Newman can boast that winning is overrated this year).
Kenseth drove with furious desperation at Talladega to finish second, ensuring his attendance in the Eliminator Round. He’s going to have to win a race eventually, right?
Kenseth performed well this year at the next three tracks, with a sixth, a 12th and a seventh at Martinsville, Phoenix and Texas. For the entirety of this season, it's felt like he was on the verge of that elusive win. He never needed it, but that's going to change.
He's closing that gap. He finished strong at Talladega, and it will be interesting to see if he can parlay his runner-up effort into wins in the Eliminator Round.
Jeff Gordon, 8-1
5 of 8
The Drive for Five continues as Jeff Gordon sneaks into the Eliminator Round. He’s a major favorite to reach the Championship Round at Homestead based solely on his record at Martinsville alone: eight wins.
“I’m just glad we made it,” Gordon said during the ESPN broadcast. “I can’t wait for Martinsville. I can’t wait for Texas. I can’t wait for Phoenix, all amazing tracks for us.”
That confidence could vault him into the final four in just the first race of the Eliminator Round.
And another thing: Gordon has three eliminated teammates—Kahne, Johnson, Earnhardt—who can block drivers, set screens and make it hell for anyone threatening the 24.
Kevin Harvick, 6-1
6 of 8
Kevin Harvick has one of the fastest cars on the circuit week in and week out. He’s the wild card here in this spot. Who knows what we’ll see?
Will it be the blitzing No. 4 who won at Charlotte? Or will it be the one who loses a lug nut or spins out on pit road?
The thing is, whatever is under Harvick’s hood, it always puts him in contention, and that’s really all that matters. He doesn’t have to be the last one standing—not yet, anyway.
Harvick won at Phoenix in the season’s second race, finished seventh at Martinsville and—gulp—finished 42nd at Texas. He’s got the car and the talent. For now, it’s a matter of keeping the package together. If he can, he’ll be very dangerous going forward.
Joey Logano, 9-2
7 of 8
Joey Logano does himself a great favor by winning early in these Chase rounds. He won the second leg of the Challenger Round at New Hampshire. Then he won the first leg of the Contender Round at Kansas.
On top of that, he’s had a great run through the next three tracks. He won at Texas and finished fourth at Phoenix and Martinsville. There's hardly a more confident driver going forward.
It’s clear that the 22 team put an emphasis on taking the stress out of the later races in each round. There’s a peace of mind knowing you’ve advanced with a few races left.
His teammate couldn't say the same thing in the Contender Round, which is why the favorite heading into the Eliminator is...
Brad Keselowski, 3-1
8 of 8
Keselowski crushed it in the Geico 500. He made it look so easy a caveman could do it. Well, not really. BK earned this one, giving new meaning to Queen's song "Under Pressure."
After a week in which he dealt with the fallout of his Charlotte-induced road rage that put him into a Kensethian headlock, the No. 2 Penske put together a do-or-die effort that advanced BK into the next round of the Chase.
Keselowski was humble in the win, citing last week’s tussle.
“I went through a lot of adversity," he said during the ESPN broadcast. "To win and make it to the next round. ... I know there’s probably some people that are pretty unhappy I won. I’m not proud of last week, but I am proud of today.”
This strikes me as the type of win that can galvanize a team. It’s the sixth of the year for Keselowski. He won with his championship hopes hanging in the balance at one of the toughest tracks on the circuit—this after being involved in a wreck early in the race. He held off Newman and Kenseth at the end and now finds himself a very tough car to beat the rest of the way.
Odds are largely based on how the drivers have handled the Chase and how they’ve performed at the upcoming tracks. All stats courtesy of NASCAR.com, unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
