Is Chipper Jones Becoming a Fantasy Liability?

Featured on: Rotoprofessor.com

Larry Wayne Jones Jr. is 37-years-old and has been a dynamic force in the big leagues for almost two decades now. He was named the Rookie of the Year in 1995. He’s made it to six All-Star games. 

He’s been a National League MVP. If those accolades aren’t enough, Jones has eight consecutive 100-plus RBI seasons (1996-2003), was the NL batting champion in 2008 and is working on his 15th consecutive 20-plus home run season.

I think it’s fair to say Chipper Jones has been a top fantasy third basemen for a long time now. But has his time as a legitimate starting 3B expired? Let’s take a look…

In a baseball world marred with tainted records, Chipper Jones has been a true mark of consistency, even as he’s aged. At 37, Jones is still playing at a very respectable level and he’s doing it while playing a rather demanding position. 

Currently, Chipper is batting .286 with 11 HR and 47 RBI. He doesn’t have his typical high batting average, nor has he displayed the power numbers we’ve all grown accustomed to. Jones is on pace for a career-low 20 HR, his third lowest batting average of his career and his third lowest RBI total.

Without a doubt, from an average baseball fan’s point of view, it really does appear that Chipper Jones’ numbers are deteriorating.

Jones hasn’t played a full season in seven years. Especially as he’s gotten older, he has been plagued with variety of injuries. It’s quite astounding that he’s still competing at such a high level with all the bumps and bruises he’s endured. This season, he’s missed just 11 games, which is quite an impressive feat for him.

Looking at the new stock of third basemen, Jones doesn’t put up the flashiest numbers, but he’s quite capable of impacting fantasy rosters. As of July 23, he was 11th among 3B in HR, 11th in RBI and eighth in batting average. 

Players like Alex Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval, Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis, and Mark Reynolds are all out-producing Chipper Jones in one way or another.

Don’t let these comparisons fool you into thinking that Chipper Jones’s days of helping your team are over. If he can stay healthy for the duration of the second half, Jones is primed to be an extremely valuable asset. Some overall aspects that play into Chipper’s favor:

• He’s vying for his first playoff berth since 2005, so he’ll be rejuvenated and play as much as his body lets him.
• He is playing in a very complete lineup. With the addition of Nate McLouth, a middle-of-the-order-threat in Brian McCann and the emerging Yunel Escobar, Jones seems to have the lineup depth to make a run.

Using last year’s historic season, where Chipper batted a league leading .364 (with 22 HR and 75 RBI), you’d have to say the average has certainly dropped the most. Jones’s career BABIP is .322.

Last year, Jones was extremely lucky with a BABIP of .388 while this season we can say he is a bit unlucky with a BABIP of .309. While a slight improvement in batting average is feasible, if Jones’ average ends at .290, owners can’t be complaining too much.

Jones has certainly not regressed in any aspect of the game all that much, despite what his drop in batting average may signal. His eye at the plate hasn’t worsened. His career walk rate is 14.6 percent, while this season he’s walked 16.9 percent of the time. 

Chipper has also hardly struck out this season, with a 14.3 percent rate (which is on par with his career 15.5 percent rate). Sure, Chipper has seen a reduction in OPS (.885 compared to a .953 career mark), but that is largely due to his lower than normal batting average.

His doubles production should continue as his line drive rate is at 20 percent and over his career it’s been at 21.3 percent. Chipper is hitting more fly balls this season, but his home runs have been flying out at a remarkably low rate, at 12.8 percent. His career average is 17.3 percent. 

A tick more in the HR rate should translate into an increase batting average. Sure, a regression based on aging is expected, but one of nearly five percent seems a bit drastic for the type of advanced hitter Chipper Jones still is.

Just because Jones is in his 16th season doesn’t mean you should ignore him when discussing the top options at 3B. Clearly, he’s not a 3B option with tremendous upside or unlimited potential; he’s already exhausted that. 

What Chipper Jones is now is an underrated third basemen with substantial production left in the tank but who gets overlooked because of his age. He is still a feared hitter capable of putting up quality numbers in the second half.

What do you guys think?  Will you take the chance with Chipper Jones in the second half?  Or do you see age really playing a factor?