Upcoming Schedule Will Define Packers' Revitalized Defense

The next two weeks should help provide much-needed clarity about where the Green Bay Packers really fall on the defensive spectrum. 

Through six games, the Packers defense ranks 12th in points (21.7 per game) and yards per play (5.3), third in takeaways (13), second in opposing passer rating (71.4) and 15th in sacks (13). The club's placement in these significant defensive categories suggests Green Bay is—at the very least—in the upper half of the NFL in defense to start 2014.

But there's also lies, damned lies and statistics (of which we'll only present more, so excuse the hypocrisy), which makes it worth wondering if the numbers posted by the Packers so far are based more in smoke and mirrors than in reality.

Luckily, facing Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton and New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees over the next two Sundays should illuminate some answers.

The primary difficulty in clearly identifying the Packers defense lives in the quality of quarterbacks faced through the first six weeks, but especially those faced recently. 

Since being drilled in Seattle by Russell Wilson (110.9 passer rating in Week 1) and the Seahawks, the Packers have battled the following quarterbacks: Geno Smith, New York Jets; Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions; Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears; Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings; and Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins. 

Even at first glance, the five names listed above do not represent a murderer's row of opposition. 

QB	Cmp/Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating	2014 Rating
G. Smith (NYJ)	16/32	176	1/1	64.1	69.7
M. Stafford (DET)	22/34	246	0/2	61.6	88.4
J. Cutler (CHI)	22/34	256	2/2	82.5	97.4
C. Ponder (MIN)	22/44	222	0/2	45.8	45.8
R. Tannehill (MIA)	20/31	244	2/2	83.3	81.5

To be fair, Stafford and Cutler are both experienced and accomplished quarterbacks. 

Then again, Stafford is on pace this season for new career lows in attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns over a full 16-game schedule. The Lions offense—which is averaging just 19.3 points per game—has often sputtered in 2014 while adjusting to Joe Lombardi's new scheme. 

Cutler is having a career year, but it took a reappearance of "Bad Jay" in the second half of Week 4 to keep that game from going into full shootout mode. Two second-half interceptions eventually helped the Packers leave Chicago with a comfortable win. And defensive coordinator Dom Capers has always fared well against the Bears quarterback (19 interceptions, 67.0 passer rating over 10 regular-season games). 

Smith, Ponder and Tannehill have combined to throw 14 interceptions this season. The trio's total passer rating in 2014 is a dreadful 71.5, while five of Green Bay's nine interceptions came against the three. 

There is certainly something to be said about forcing an average or struggling quarterback to play poorly. The Packers have done that consistently this season, which is much more than the defense can say recently. Far too often in past years, Green Bay has allowed middling quarterbacks to play above and beyond expectations. 

Newton and Brees represent a true two-week litmus test for Capers' unit. 

John Grieshop/Getty Images

Newton will arrive in Green Bay Sunday coming off one of his most productive games. Facing the Bengals in Cincinnati, Newton compiled 391 total yards—including 107 rushing—and three scores (one rushing). Carolina scored 37 points and had 431 yards of total offense, just one week after scoring 31 against the Bears at home. 

In his first meeting with Green Bay, back in Week 2 of the 2011 season, Newton threw for over 400 yards. But it's more than just Newton's arm that should worry the Packers. 

His ankle, which was an obvious problem earlier in the year, now looks as healthy as it has been in 2014. He ran 17 times against the Bengals—or three more times than he had during his the first four games of this season combined. 

Newton's ability to run the read-option is especially concerning for a Packers defense that showed in Miami it still has problems defending mobile quarterbacks in that look. 

Here are two views of why that could be a problem against Newton:

NFL Game Rewind

NFL Game Rewind

Not only did Clay Matthews crash hard on the running back, but so did linebackers Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk and safety Morgan Burnett. The result was a running lane that Newton likely would have used to score six points. Tannehill dashed for 40. 

Brees is a different kind of animal.

Over five career games against the Packers, Brees has 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions, with a passer rating of 110.0. His last three—all with the Saints—include 10 scores and zero picks, while New Orleans has averaged 37.3 points per contest. 

The Packers will also get the difficult assignment of playing Brees in New Orleans during prime time. 

This chart from Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders explains why, in chilling fashion:

It doesn't get more dominant from a quarterback under the bright lights. The Saints have scored at least 35 points nine times in 20 tries, while Brees has finished with a quarterback rating over 100.0 11 times over the last 12 games. Amazingly, he's thrown 54 touchdown passes over the 20-game sample. 

Brees hasn't been his dominant self to start 2014. He's tossed six interceptions—putting him on pace for 19 this season—and only twice has he finished a contest with a passer rating over 100.0. Still, put him in prime time in New Orleans, and fireworks are almost sure to follow. 

From Green Bay's point of view, facing Brees will be a stress for the back end of the secondary and, in particular, rookie safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. 

The Packers' first-round pick has become a steadying force for Capers, who is growing increasingly more comfortable giving Clinton-Dix single-high safety responsibilities. The look meshes with Green Bay's defensive personnel, and it's been a favorite for Capers dating back to when he could rely on Nick Collins in the role.

However, Brees is the kind of veteran quarterback who could take advantage of the rookie.

Below is one example from in Miami when Clinton-Dix might have been exploited by a better quarterback:

NFL Game Rewind

This play ends with the rookie being credited with a pass breakup. He closed on the underneath route in a flash, meeting receiver Mike Wallace with a collision at the catch point. However, Tannehill missed his read. 

Had he instead used his eyes to manipulate Clinton-Dix on the underneath route, like Brees does as well as any quarterback in the game, Tannehill could have attacked downfield to Brian Hartline, who was running behind the coverage. 

Again, Clinton-Dix made a fantastic play to attack the receiver. It is not difficult to see why Tannehill pulled the trigger here—Wallace was running free. But just a little patience and read discipline could have turned this incomplete pass into a big play at the expense of the rookie. Brees has that capability, while a quarterback like Tannehill—or Ponder or Smith, for that matter—is still firmly in the developmental phase. 

Further complications could arise if Tramon Williams (ankle) or Sam Shields (knee), who both left the game in Miami with injuries, can't play against Newton, Brees or both. All bets are off if Green Bay's two best cover corners are on the sideline. 

On Wednesday, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy kept the door open for both playing Sunday against the Panthers, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN: 

There's a chance to learn much about the Packers defense if the two can go. 

The numbers certainly say the Packers are playing quarterbacks well. Green Bay's defense is in the top six in the NFL in completion percentage (59.8, sixth), passing touchdowns (seven, tied for fifth), interceptions (nine, second), yards per attempt (6.6, tied for sixth) and passer rating (72.4, second). 

However, beating up on scrubs and playing well against quarterbacks likely to be alive in January are two very different things. 

The warm-ups are over. The Packers now have an opportunity to stamp their place among the NFL's best pass defenses over the next two weeks. Harass and disrupt Newton and Brees, and the Packers defense will leave no more room for doubt. 

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2