Why Dan Bailey Could Be on Track to Become the Best Kicker in NFL History
With his 100th career field goal on his 110th career attempt Sunday in Seattle, Dan Bailey of the Dallas Cowboys officially became the most accurate placekicker in NFL history.
| Dan Bailey | 2011-2014 | 91.07% |
| Mike Vanderjagt | 1998-2006 | 86.47% |
| Steven Hauschka | 2008-2014 | 86.29% |
| Nate Kaeding | 2004-2012 | 86.19% |
| Stephen Gostkowski | 2006-2014 | 86.15% |
Because field-goal kicking has become so much better now than at any other point in the past, being the best kicker of this era essentially means you're the best kicker of all time. Placekicking success rates skew so dramatically from past eras to this one that comparisons are comical. It's like comparing home run numbers from baseball's steroid era to anything that came before McGwire, Sosa and Bonds.
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Amazingly, the top 38 most accurate kickers in NFL history have been active in the last decade. Twenty-three of those kickers are active right freakin' now. There isn't a single active kicker with enough field goals to qualify (100 in the minimum) who isn't in the top 50 on the all-time accuracy list.
The six active non-rookie kickers who don't have enough field goals to qualify—Justin Tucker, Caleb Sturgis, Randy Bullock, Kai Forbath, Blair Walsh and Greg Zuerlien—would all rank in the top 60 if they could. And Tucker, Walsh and Forbath would rank second, third and fourth, behind only Bailey.
Hell, even rookies Brandon McManus, Cairo Santos, Cody Parkey, Patrick Murray and Chandler Catanzaro are 42-of-48 kicking, which is 87.5 percent. If they were one player and maintained that pace for another 67 kicks, they'd be the second-most-accurate kicker of all time.
And yet Bailey stands out from that crowd as the only kicker with at least 100 field goals and a success rate above 90 percent.
That alone doesn't make him the best kicker right now, let alone all time. But dig a little deeper and it's hard to deny him that distinction.
Until an uncharacteristic miss from 53 yards in Week 5, Bailey had made 30 consecutive field goals. He's missed only 10 attempts his entire career, but half of those came when he was a rookie back in 2011.
Seven of his misses have come from 49 or more yards, one was blocked and the other two came from short range. The first of those "regular" misses came in his second career game back in 2011, when he botched a 21-yard attempt in San Francisco:
He also sliced one from 35 yards last September against St. Louis, but he has no other non-blocked misses from inside 49 yards in his entire career.
| 1. Dan Bailey | 97.4% |
| 2. Dan Carpenter | 95.5% |
| 3. Sebastian Janikowski | 95.3% |
| 4. Shayne Graham | 95.3% |
| 5. Justin Tucker | 94.1% |
And while the majority of his misses have come from long distance, don't underestimate Bailey's ability to hit from beyond 50 yards. The 56-yarder he nailed in the third quarter Sunday in Seattle was the longest of his career, but it would have been good from 66:
He's made 13 of his 19 attempts beyond 50 yards, but he's actually hit nine of his last 11 kicks from that distance. Since the start of 2013, nobody has made more kicks than Bailey has from that distance, and he ranks fourth among kickers with at least six 50-something-yard attempts during that span.
| 1. Graham Gano | 7 | 7 | 100.0% |
| 2. Phil Dawson | 9 | 8 | 88.9% |
| 3. Stephen Gostkowski | 7 | 6 | 85.7% |
| 4. Dan Bailey | 10 | 8 | 80.0% |
| 5. Mason Crosby | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| 6. Matt Prater | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| 7. Matt Bryant | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| 8. Dan Carpenter | 9 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 9. Rian Lindell | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| 10. Adam Vinatieri | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| 11. Justin Tucker | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| 12. Josh Scobee | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| 13. Blair Walsh | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| 14. Caleb Sturgis | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 15. Randy Bullock | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| 16. Mike Nugent | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| 17. Alex Henery | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| 18. Billy Cundiff | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| 19. Sebastian Janikowski | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
But it's not just about making the majority of your kicks or hitting home run kicks. Kickers really make their money when games are on the line. And that's where Bailey once again comes up big. He already has nine game-winning field goals, which is the most in team history. More than even Rafael Septien, who made 162 field goals during his nine-year tenure with Dallas in the 1970s and '80s.
Since Bailey came into the league, the Cowboys have won only 29 games. Bailey's foot has been the deciding factor on 23 percent of those occasions.
Only three times in his career has Bailey missed a potential game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter.
But on the first occasion, in his rookie season, Bailey was actually good from 49 yards but was accidentally iced by his own head coach when Jason Garrett called a timeout just before the snap. On the do-over, he missed.
The second potential game-winning miss took place just two weeks ago when he couldn't convert from 53 yards at the end of regulation against Houston. In his defense, it was a long kick. And Dallas still won the game after Bailey nailed a 49-yarder in overtime.
Only once has Dallas lost directly off of a Bailey miss, but that was way back in October of 2012 when he was wide left by a couple yards on a 51-yarder that would have given the Cowboys a 32-31 road victory over the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens.
These are tiny blips for a guy who is 30-of-34 in his career in the fourth quarter or overtime.
Again, it's tough to compare kickers across eras, but let's at least compare Bailey's numbers in those key areas to kickers who have received at least three Pro Bowl nods or at least two first-team All-Pro credits and were active in the last 20 years.
| Dan Bailey | 91.1 | 70.0 |
| Adam Vinatieri | 83.3 | 52.6 |
| David Akers | 80.9 | 54.0 |
| Jason Elam | 80.7 | 60.0 |
| Gary Anderson | 80.1 | 30.0 |
| Nick Lowery | 80.0 | 44.9 |
| Morten Anderson | 79.7 | 47.6 |
What's also notable about Bailey is he doesn't just make the vast majority of his kicks, but he makes them without a shadow of a doubt. Here's a look at his last six successful kicks:
So right now, considering that he's probably just entering his prime at the age of 26 and continues to get better each year, you have to believe Bailey's working at a pace that could one day have us calling him the greatest kicker in NFL history.
That's why he's already the highest-paid kicker in the game in terms of contract value, according to Spotrac.
| Dan Bailey | $22.5M (7 years) |
| Stephen Gostkowski | $15.8M (5 years) |
| Sebastian Janikowski | $15.1M (4 years) |
And it's why, this year, he'll make more money than key Dallas position players Justin Durant, Anthony Spencer and George Selvie.
"There’s plenty of more kicks to make and there’s probably going to be some misses in there too," Bailey said this week, per Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. "Realistically, it’s just not that big of deal right now."
He's right, because it's still early and because it's important to note that Bailey has yet to make a single kick in an NFL playoff game. Adam Vinatieri is a four-time Super Bowl champion with three Super Bowl-winning kicks. Steven Hauschka and Stephen Gostkowski are a combined 30-of-32 in 21 playoff games. Martin Gramatica made all six of his Super Bowl attempts.
But Bailey has plenty of time to add accolades. Right now, though, he's off to a near-perfect start, which says a lot about the unpredictability of the NFL. After all, the guy was an undrafted free agent only four years ago, and he was nearly cut early in his tenure at Oklahoma State, according to head coach Mike Gundy.
"I’d love to give you some great story that I saw something in him,” said Gundy, his former coach at OSU, during a press conference last week, according to Michael Baldwin of The Oklahoman. "I don’t remember. I can remember thinking, ‘He’s a good kid, but we’re going to have to get somebody else in here.' I’m not exactly sure why we did (keep him around), but I’m sure glad we did."
About half a decade later, he's Mr. Automatic.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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