New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions are 4-2 and tied for first place in the NFC North, but this week they run into a team they've struggled with lately. Detroit is 0-4 both straight up and against the spread in its last four games against the New Orleans Saints. The Lions will try to snap that string when they host the Saints Sunday afternoon at Ford Field.

Point spread: Lions opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.6-20.7 Lions

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are off to a slow start, at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, but two of those losses came on the road on the last plays of the games. Two weeks ago New Orleans rallied to beat Tampa Bay in overtime, outgaining the Bucs 511-314, then had last week off. On the season, the Saints rank second in total offense and eighth in rushing, as second-year pro Khiry Robinson has stepped in for the injured Mark Ingram and averaged five yards per carry on 60 carries.

The New Orleans defense, which ranked fourth overall last year, ranks just 23rd this year, but probably won't have to deal with either Calvin Johnson or Reggie Bush Sunday.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions are coming off a 17-3 victory at Minnesota, holding the Vikings to just 212 total yards, intercepting rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater three times and winning outright as one-point road dogs. So Detroit is 4-2 both SU and ATS, and would be 5-1 had it not blown that game a couple weeks ago against Buffalo.

The Lions only rank 23rd in total offense and 29th in rushing, but they lead the league in total defense and points allowed, giving up less than two touchdowns per game. On top of that, the Detroit stop unit probably won't have to deal with Saints tight end Jimmy Graham, who's troubled by a shoulder injury.

Smart pick

Detroit is just 3-6 ATS the last nine times it's been favored at home, so apparently the home-field advantage at Ford Field is a little overrated. Also, while the Lions averaged almost 25 points per game last year, with Johnson catching 1,500 yards worth of balls, they're averaging almost a full touchdown less this season. So for what might be a tough, close game the smart pick goes with the Saints and the points.

Betting trends

• New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
• Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.