Gennady Golovkin vs. Marco Antonio Rubio: Preview, Prediction for Title Fight
Saturday night from Carson, California, undefeated WBA middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin makes his West Coast debut when he faces tough veteran Marco Antonio Rubio. It's become an event every time GGG gets in the ring, and Rubio is exactly the kind of fearless warrior that should make for an exciting fight with the champ.
Both of these guys are come-forward fighters with high knockout percentages. The promotion around the showdown has been hyping a "Mexican-style war" since the fight was announced.
So expect an entertaining fight, for as long as it lasts.
Golovkin vs. Rubio will be shown on HBO starting at 10 pm ET/PT on Saturday, October 19.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Gennady Golovkin | Marco Antonio Rubio |
| Record: | 30-0, 27 KOs | 59-6-1, 51 KOs |
| Height: | 5'10.5" | 5'10" |
| Reach: | 70" | 70" |
| Weight: | 160 lbs | 160 lbs |
| Age: | 32 | 34 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Karaganda, Kazakhstan | Torreon, Coahuila |
| Rounds: | 127 | 317 |
Marco Antonio Rubio is one of the most experienced veterans in the middleweight division. He was fighting as a professional while Gennady Golovkin was still an amateur.
Of course, GGG was an Olympic silver medalist. So his amateur experience was probably more valuable than Rubio's early professional career.
Although Rubio and Golovkin have nearly identical physical dimensions, Golovkin looks to have the tighter, more powerful build. Both men have dangerous power.
Main Storylines
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Since making his North American debut in September 2012, Gennady Golovkin has been the hottest fighter in the sport. He has knocked out 17 straight opponents, smashing top-rated contenders and former world champions along the way.
Inside the ring, Golovkin is a relentless stalker. He is an assassin who cuts off the ring and batters opponents with his otherworldly punching power. There hasn't been a more destructive puncher since the glory days of Mike Tyson more than 20 years ago.
But outside the ring, GGG is soft-spoken and quick to smile. The intriguing contrast between his two personas has rallied fans around him.
So far, his promoter, K2, has kept Golovkin in the Northeast. But Saturday, he makes his West Coast debut in Carson. After his three-round demolition of Daniel Geale earlier this year, Golovkin told HBO's Max Kellerman that he tried to fight with a "Mexican style."
And Saturday he'll fight a tough, experienced Mexican fighter in Marco Antonio Rubio, who has been a top contender at 160 pounds for half a decade. Since losing to Kelly Pavlik by TKO in 2009, he's lost just once, to Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in 2012.
Rubio trains near Carson, at Robert Garcia's famous boxing gym in Oxnard. Rubio has played the role of momentum killer before, handing highly touted, unbeaten contender David Lemieux his first loss in 2011.
But Golovkin is magnitudes better than Lemieux was in 2011. To have a shot here, Rubio is going to have to turn in the biggest performance of his career.
Strengths
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Gennady Golovkin is a wrecking machine. He is a physically powerful pressure fighter who lands fight-ending punches with both hands. He has a granite jaw as well.
Golovkin relies on his punching to win fights, but his first-rate boxing pedigree is still obvious. He doesn't just wade forward, throwing punches. He throws punches while knowing exactly where he plans to move to throw the next one.
Marco Antonio Rubio is a crafty, experienced veteran fighter who has fought at the world-class level since 2006. He has a very good right hand and sets it up well with his jab. He varies the speed of his punches like a baseball pitcher varies the speed of his pitches, making it very hard to time him.
Rubio is a gutsy, durable fighter with very good power. He'll be one of the bigger punchers Golovkin has faced.
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Weaknesses
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Gennady Golovkin has not been especially tough to hit during his professional career. I'm not sure if that's a weakness or simply a tactical choice, though. GGG is confident that his punches will break the other man before the other man can break him.
Still, Rubio has a hard, sneaky right hand. Golovkin's indifference to being hit could cause trouble for him.
Marco Antonio Rubio leaves a lot of space to be hit, and getting hit multiple times by Golovkin is asking for trouble. Rubio has trouble fighting when he's being pushed onto his back foot, and against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Rubio struggled against a stronger fighter who stayed in his face.
Golovkin is smaller than Chavez, but I'd wager he's at least close to as strong.
Gennady Golovkin Will Win If...
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Marco Antonio Rubio should be exactly the kind of fighter Gennady Golovkin can look good against. Rubio fights best when he's coming forward, and that's playing right into GGG's hands.
But Golovkin needs to remain patient in this fight and take his time breaking Rubio down. Against hard-punching David Lemieux in 2011, Rubio lost the first half-dozen rounds before he started to find the timing with his right hand and turned the fight around in a hurry, to win by stoppage.
Golovkin should look to stay in close range and push Rubio backward. In the early rounds, he should throw a lot to the body in order to test the 34-year-old's conditioning. GGG has won fights with a single punch to the body in the past.
Golovkin knows if he can land enough punches, his opponent is going to fall. He has to limit the punches he takes in return. But as he showed against Daniel Geale in his last fight, even when GGG gets hit flush in the face, if he's in position to land his own shot, he's an extremely dangerous man.
Marco Antonio Rubio Will Win If...
6 of 7Even though Gennady Golovkin leaves plenty of space to be hit, once most opponents have felt his power, they hesitate to throw their own punches out of pure intimidation. Overcoming that intimidation will be the first thing Marco Antonio Rubio has to do.
I don't think he'll have a lot of problem with that. Rubio is a warrior, and this could be his last big break. He'll put it on the line.
However, as we saw when Golovkin fought Daniel Geale, even when GGG gets hit flush by a world-class opponent, he is able to land his own fight-ending punch. So Rubio will have to limit how much damage he takes.
To do that, he'll need to use a stiff jab and some head movement. I don't think Rubio should try to move away from Golovkin. He does not fight well going backward. As tough as it is to fight Golovkin in the pocket, if Rubio tries to move away and leaves some space, GGG will easily cut off the ring and batter him.
Rubio's overhand right is a very good punch. He has to hang in against Golovkin while waiting to find the opening and timing to land it without getting smashed in return.
Prediction
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Marco Antonio Rubio is a tough, experienced fighter. He's one of the best middleweights in the world.
But Gennady Golovkin looks like a special fighter, the kind that only comes around a few times in a generation. He has completely demolished top fighters like Matthew Macklin and Daniel Geale without showing even a hint of vulnerability.
There is a chance Rubio will give Golovkin a tougher fight than he is used to. But ultimately, GGG will win a war of attrition and finish Rubio inside of 10 rounds.
The fight that Golovkin deserves at this point is a shot against lineal and WBC champion Miguel Cotto. But I don't think Freddie Roach is going to let Cotto anywhere near that fight. I also think Cotto will fight Saul Alvarez next.
In the meantime, maybe Golovkin will at least be able to start collecting belts. It's unlikely that new IBF titleholder Jermain Taylor could get a bigger payday than he would against Golovkin. Then again, with Taylor's history of head injuries, I'm not anxious to see him fight GGG.
The WBO belt is also newly vacated. If the WBO would actually like to have its middleweight belt be worth something, it should let Golovkin fight for it.
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