NFL Picks Week 6: Odds and Over-Under Advice Before Sunday Kickoff
With a couple of lopsided affairs thrown in with sure spectacles, the Week 6 NFL schedule boasts 15 matchups that should entice both viewers and bettors alike.
Anytime you have a surging Super Bowl contender playing against a struggling foe, the Las Vegas lines can be skewed. This weekend is no different, as the Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers and Seattle Seahawks face highly favorable odds.
Road teams should be given a closer look this week, with six road teams being favored in Week 6. But as tends to be the case in this parity-stricken league, there's no telling what we will get from a handful of games that could really go either way.
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Here's a last-minute look at the odds and over-under lines for every game, and a highlight of the best bets.
NFL Week 6 Odds, Over-Under Lines and Picks
| Oct. 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4) | 1 p.m. | 43 | Titans |
| Oct. 12 | Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 p.m. | 43.5 | Ravens |
| Oct. 12 | Denver Broncos (-10) at New York Jets | 1 p.m. | 48 | Jets |
| Oct. 12 | Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Even) | 1 p.m. | 43 | Lions |
| Oct. 12 | New England Patriots (-1) at Buffalo Bills | 1 p.m. | 45 | Patriots |
| Oct. 12 | Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) | 1 p.m. | 43.5 | Panthers |
| Oct. 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Even) | 1 p.m. | 47 | Browns |
| Oct. 12 | Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins | 1 p.m. | 49 | Packers |
| Oct. 12 | San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders | 4:05 p.m. | 43.5 | Chargers |
| Oct. 12 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3) | 4:25 p.m. | 54 | Bears |
| Oct. 12 | Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) | 4:25 p.m. | 46.5 | Seahawks |
| Oct. 12 | Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) | 4:25 p.m. | 45.5 | Cardinals |
| Oct. 12 | New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) | 8:30 p.m. | 50 | Giants |
| Oct. 13 | San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams | 8:30 p.m. (Mon.) | 43.5 | 49ers |
Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, updated as of Oct. 11 at 1 p.m. ET
Best Bets
Carolina Panthers (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were trending upward while the Panthers were mired in struggles entering Week 5, but both teams have effectively swapped places as we head toward this Week 6 matchup.
After a 3-0 start to the season followed with a bye, Cincinnati was crushed on the road by the previously struggling Patriots on Monday Night Football. The mighty Bengals defense gave up a whopping 505 total yards.
Meanwhile, Cam Newton and Co. looked poised for a midseason slump after two straight losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore followed with a brutal upcoming schedule. Instead, the Panthers turned things around with a 31-24 win over Chicago.
As if the 43-17 defeat last weekend wasn't bad enough, the Bengals will be without star wideout A.J. Green along with backup Marvin Jones Sunday, via the Bengals' injury report. That makes Mohamed Sanu the only receiver in play that has more than 74 yards on the year.
The Panthers' stable of backs is banged up beyond belief, but Cam Newton should find success over the middle again with Greg Olsen. He's set to play, according to ESPN's David Newton, and his success should continue against a Bengals team that just allowed 185 yards and two touchdowns to Patriots tight ends.
Facing a different defensive scheme should help as well, per The Charlotte Observer's Joe Person:
Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill should give Cincinnati a big leg-up on offense, but hardly enough to win the game. Taking the Panthers to cover as touchdown underdogs seems like easy money.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)
CenturyLink Field is where opposing dreams go to die. A single loss won't do anything to ruin the Cowboys' 2014 hopes, but they will learn just how far they are from royalty on Sunday with a visit to Seattle.
After an opening-week loss to San Francisco, Dallas has been unstoppable, rattling off four straight victories by a combined 43 points. On the other hand, the Seahawks are 3-1 coming off a road win over Washington on Monday Night Football.
DeMarco Murray has had his way on the ground this season, but that should all come to an end against one of the few units that can hang with the Dallas offensive line. The Seahawks defensive front leads the NFL by allowing just 62.3 rush yards per contest, and they out-gained the Redskins 225-32 on the ground last week.
The Cowboys will have to win this one on the outside, and that will be easier said than done with the likes of Richard Sherman locking things down, per NFL:
Sherman hasn't really been tested yet this season with no interceptions, but that's for a reason. Spreading the ball around allowed the Chargers—the only team to find much of any success against him—to thrive, so it will take an effective game from Murray to open things up aerially. I don't see that happening.
Tony Romo will have to put up big points to hang with the Seahawks at home. Marshawn Lynch is set to have a field day against a depleted Cowboys front seven, and Russell Wilson is coming off the best rushing performance of his career to face a team ranking 20th in run defense.
Expect the Seahawks to pull away in the second half and win this one by double digits.
Under 43 Points: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are plummeting in a fashion that makes it impossible to conceivably pick either as a winner.
Instead, betting on the over/under line might be your best bet.
Odds Shark has a 43-point prediction for Sunday's game at LP Field, which is in many cases a low line—but not for this matchup, in which points should be at a premium. The Jaguars have failed to score more than 17 points in a game all season long.
The Titans offense has been hit or miss, but it should struggle without Jake Locker. The Tennessean's Jim Wyatt reports Locker is expected to miss Sunday's game and Charlie Whitehurst should get the nod.
The problem? Other than two touchdowns in the matter of a minute last week versus Cleveland, Whitehurst was blanked in the second half in a 29-28 Browns comeback. The Titans have been held scoreless for 10 of their last 16 quarters played.
The only way this game gets over 43 total points is if the Titans stretch out Jacksonville aerially with Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright. The Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense, but Whitehurst is no Andrew Luck, Nick Foles or Philip Rivers—three of the QBs Jacksonville has faced in 2014.
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