NFL Week 6 Picks: Breaking Down Weekend's Biggest Survival Pool Locks

Conventional wisdom suggests that it should be easier to identify locks in the NFL as the season progresses, but the unpredictability of the league makes picking games an inexact science.

That is a conundrum for those who take part in survival pools, which prompt participants to pick one winner per week. The caveat, however, is that a team cannot be picked more than once over the course of a season.

With many survival pool players likely leaning on the league's elite teams early in the year, the pickings may already be getting thin for some in Week 6.

There is also a dearth of convincing home favorites, and there is no question that there is some degree of risk involved when it comes to relying on a road team.

Even so, there is a handful of picks that people should feel comfortable making this weekend in survival pools. Here is a closer look at those potential selections as well as a full listing of picks both straight up and against the spread.

Date	Away	Home	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Oct. 12	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	Even	DET	DET
Oct. 12	Denver Broncos	New York Jets	DEN (-10)	DEN	NYJ
Oct. 12	New England Patriots	Buffalo Bills	NE (-3)	BUF	BUF
Oct. 12	Baltimore Ravens	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	BAL (-3.5)	BAL	TB
Oct. 12	Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-7)	CIN	CAR
Oct. 12	Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	TEN (-4)	TEN	JAC
Oct. 12	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	CLE (-1)	PIT	PIT
Oct. 12	Green Bay Packers	Miami Dolphins	GB (-3.5)	GB	GB
Oct. 12	San Diego Chargers	Oakland Raiders	SD (-7.5)	SD	SD
Oct. 12	Chicago Bears	Atlanta Falcons	ATL (-3)	ATL	ATL
Oct. 12	Washington Redskins	Arizona Cardinals	ARI (-3.5)	WAS	WAS
Oct. 12	Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-9)	SEA	SEA
Oct. 12	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-3)	PHI	PHI
Oct. 13	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	SF (-3.5)	SF	SF

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

The 3-1 Denver Broncos travel east this week to take on the disheveled New York Jets, who are 1-4 after getting romped by the San Diego Chargers in Week 5. Some might feel as though this contest has trap game written all over it with a team from out west starting at 1 p.m. ET, but the Broncos are essentially immune to that type of letdown.

Quarterback Peyton Manning is the ultimate professional, and he will have the offense ready to roll. He is just six touchdown passes away from breaking Brett Favre's all-time record, and it won't be particularly shocking if he does so on Sunday considering Gang Green's recent struggles.

The Jets are in disarray on both sides of the ball, and there has been no sign of a turnaround. They have given up the second-most passing touchdowns in the league defensively with 12, and head coach Rex Ryan almost seems resigned to Manning picking them apart, according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News:

Manning is going to put some points on the board with weapons like Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker at his disposal, while the Jets simply don't have enough firepower on offense to counter. Despite an awful performance last week against San Diego, second-year quarterback Geno Smith will get the smart for New York, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:

Smith has seemingly regressed since last season, and he is going to have his hands full against a Denver pass rush that features DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. If that isn't ominous enough, it is uncertain if Smith will have the services of No. 1 receiver Eric Decker, according to Around The NFL:

Whether or not Decker plays, though, the difference will be negligible. These are two teams on completely different ends of the spectrum, which means that this game could get ugly in a hurry.

A Jets win would arguably be the biggest upset of the year, but Manning and Co. won't allow it to happen.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have silenced their doubters thus far with a surprising 4-1 start, but they will face their biggest test of the season on Sunday when they take on the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks in Seattle.

In addition to winning nine of their past 10 home games, the Seahawks are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball. They are likely best known for a defense that helped carry them to a title last season, but they have more than enough on offense to win a high-scoring affair if they have to.

Perhaps the biggest key to this game will be the rush offense and defense for both teams. Dallas has strayed from its usual pass-first philosophy and enjoyed a great deal of success with running back DeMarco Murray tearing it up on the ground. Murray leads the NFL with an impressive 670 rushing yards, and he has helped the Cowboys play a ball-control style of offense.

As good as Dallas has been when it comes to running the ball, Seattle may be even better at stopping it, as evidenced by this graphic courtesy of ESPN The Magazine:

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Who has the edge: #Cowboys run game or #Seahawks defense? That and other Week 6 storylines: http://t.co/ep0925sv59 pic.twitter.com/yctYmMRuRD

— ESPN The Magazine (@ESPNMag) October 10, 2014"

Also, the Cowboys defense has bent and not broken, but that could very well change in Week 6. According to Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, there is a huge disparity between Seattle's rush offense and Dallas' rush defense:

The Cowboys allow 5.2 yards per carry, which is the second-worst in the league behind only the Carolina Panthers. The Seahawks will undoubtedly provide a heavy dose of running back Marshawn Lynch, and quarterback Russell Wilson proved capable of doing damage with his legs as well by rushing for over 100 yards in Week 5.

There is no doubt that Dallas' success has been a nice story, however, it won't continue in a hostile environment against arguably the best team in football.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Divisional rivalry games tend to be tricky since there is more emotion involved than usual, but that shouldn't be a major concern for those who want to pick the San Diego Chargers to beat the Oakland Raiders on the road this week.

Since blowing a late lead to lose to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, the Bolts have been on fire. They are currently 4-1, with one of those victories coming over the Seahawks. The Raiders are a different story with a record of 0-4 and very little positivity to speak of.

Sunday will mark Tony Sparano's first game as Oakland's head coach since the firing of Dennis Allen after a loss to the Miami Dolphins in London. That could provide the Raiders with a bit of a boost, but the talent simply isn't there.

They have struggled to move the ball on offense behind rookie quarterback Derek Carr. The Fresno State product is expected to play this week, but he is banged up, according to Jerry McDonald of the Oakland Tribune:

That isn't particularly good news against a San Diego defense that is tied for seventh in the league with 12 sacks. Not only does Oakland figure to struggle on offense, but it will be hard-pressed to stop the Chargers defensively as well.

Bolts quarterback Philip Rivers is enjoying a spectacular season, and he is arguably leading the MVP race. He has thrown for over 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns, but his most impressive statistic may be his completion percentage of over 70 percent.

Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com is among those who are in awe of the form that Rivers has displayed through five games:

The Raiders are also No. 31 against the run, as they allow 158 yards per game. Undrafted rookie running back Branden Oliver will start for the Chargers after rushing for more than 100 yards last week against the Jets. He is running with a purpose, and he could prove to be the biggest difference in the game.

San Diego is playing as well as anyone right now, and it won't experience a letdown against a moribund Raiders club in Week 6.

*Point spreads courtesy of OddsShark.com. 

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