Steven Jackson: 2009 Fantasy Football Projection

It feels like every season Steven Jackson enters with a lot of expectations surrounding him.  Unfortunately, injuries have helped to derail his last two years, limiting him to just 12 games in each.  That still didn’t stop him from exceeding 1,000 yards, now having done so in each of the past four years.

It’s that 2006 season that everyone hopes he can duplicate.  That year he not only rushed for 1,528 yards and 13 TD, but added 90 catches for 806 yards and three TD.  Those are enormous numbers, ones that are unlikely to be duplicated under any circumstance, even with him basically consisting of the entire Rams offense.

Ronald Curry (newly acquired), Keenan Burton, and Donnie Avery leading the way at the wide receiver position?  New tight end Randy McMichael may be the best receiver on the team, despite having just 11 receptions in four games last season.

Keep that in mind when looking at Jackson who has proven he can be a weapon out of the backfield.  Mark Bulger is going to need to get the ball to someone and with 38+ catches each of the past two seasons there is no reason to think that Jackson is not going to be a frequent target.

Is he going to reach 90 catches again?  Unlikely, but he certainly could get to 50+ if he stays on the field, a definite boost to his value.

That’s just an added bonus, however.  What owners really need to look at is his potential performance on the ground.  This is a team that is going to need to focus on defense and ball control and with new head coach Steve Spagnuolo (the former Giants defensive coordinator) at the helm that is exactly what they are likely to do.

The team added Mike Karney as the fullback, who played the last five seasons with the New Orleans Saints.  He started 46 games while in New Orleans, helping lead the way for Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush, and company and surely will help clear the way for Jackson to break off some big runs.

They also made a major change along the offensive line, having drafted Jason Smith with the No. 2 pick overall in the 2008 draft.  He replaces Orlando Pace, a perennial Pro Bowler, who leaves big shoes to fill.  While it’s going to be tough, Pace was 33-years old, so getting younger and more athletic could potentially help open some holes for Jackson.

The health is really the major concern.  If he can stay on the field he’s a lock to be a 1,000 yard back, no questions asked, especially when you consider that he’s never had a yards/carry of less than 4.1 (he’s at 4.3 for his career). 

Throw in the fact that the rest of the offense is so weak, he could really be leaned upon and shine in the passing game, as well as given ample opportunity to find the end zone.

I would project him out at:

Rushing - 1,300 yards, 12 TD
Receiving - 425 yards, 2 TD

Those are solid numbers, right around a Top five or six option in all formats.  His talent has never been a question, just his ability to keep himself healthy.  That’s an inherent risk with almost any running back, however. 

Knowing that he’s capable of posting numbers like he did in 2006 (however unlikely) certainly makes him worth the gamble in the middle of the first round.

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