How Does Todd Gurley Project at the NFL Level?
The best player in the country will not suit up Saturday and may never do so again in college football.
Running back Todd Gurley is out after the University of Georgia handed down an indefinite suspension. The star tailback and Heisman Trophy candidate is being investigated for an alleged violation of NCAA rules, the school announced Thursday evening.
ESPN's Joe Schad reports "the NCAA investigation centers around whether Gurley was given money for autographs, memorabilia or the use of his likeness. Georgia officials did not reveal the alleged violation."
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That's legal for me or you to do but not for a college "student-athlete."
Regardless of how asinine that rule is, NFL teams will be looking at Gurley sooner rather than later. If the suspension lasts the rest of the season—which is possible given a report from Chip Towers of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution—what will his impact on the field and individual talents say about his ability to be a starting running back in the NFL?
Let's take a look at the nation's best back and see how he projects at the next level.
Power
At 6'1" and 233 pounds, Gurley has the size, power and running technique to be a punishing hitter when a defender steps in his way.
The key to being an effective power runner isn't in size alone but in running with leverage and a fearless attitude. Gurley has both. When attacking a runner in space, he does a great job of lowering his shoulder pads to make contact on the defender, but he also keeps his feet moving through contact.
Other big backs will make contact and expect to simply roll over the tackler, but Gurley is smart in keeping his feet churning to power himself through. This also means his burst after contact is better because he's never stopped his forward momentum.
Gurley does more than just lower his pads and run over people, though. He has a strong, well-timed stiff-arm that allows him to avoid diving tacklers and keep going at full speed down the field. Whether it's with his thick, powerful legs or that deadly punch, he's the best in college football at breaking tackles and picking up yards after contact.
In short-yardage situations, he does have a tendency to run too tall and lose leverage. That's balanced out by his power in the college game, but once in the NFL, he'll want to learn to run lower and not rely on leg power or a dive over the line of scrimmage to pick up tough yards or goal-line touchdowns.
Another negative in the power department is that Gurley gives up his legs a lot as a runner. Defenders seem to aim for his thighs and knees, and he's often swept down in the open field by a heat-seeking tackler coming in low.
Gurley must learn to combat this with either a lateral move, a lowering of his shoulder pads or by bracing for the hit if he can't avoid it. Too many defenders chopping away at his legs will be a sure way to shorten his NFL career.
It's easy to watch Gurley running over linebackers and defensive backs and see some Marshawn Lynch in the way he moves. Lynch isn't quite as tall or as fast, but their powerful, tough running styles are very similar. So are the grass stains they leave on the backs of defenders who dare to get in their way.
Speed
The best way to explain Gurley's speed to you before any predraft workouts is this: He's 233 pounds and is a dangerous kick returner. And yes, that's incredibly rare.
Older readers will remember Shaun Alexander returning kicks at Alabama, and he weighed in at 220 pounds on a 6'1" frame. Gurley is listed at 13 pounds heavier and looks a lot faster than Alexander did back in the day.
No one will confuse Gurley for Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy, but his speed as a big back is unmatched in college football. He routinely shows speed out of the backfield, when back as a returner and when catching swing or screen passes. His burst to top speed is impressive and often leaves defenders taking poor angles to try and catch him down the sideline.
I would estimate Gurley to be in the 4.50 range in terms of 40-yard dash time right now. With pre-combine training, that could get down to a high 4.30 time. That would put Gurley in rare company for his size.
Remember, Adrian Peterson ran a 4.40 at the combine, and Marshawn Lynch put in a 4.46. Gurley has a chance to be faster than both.
Vision
The biggest adjustment for college running backs making the jump to the NFL is vision. Finding a rushing lane against bigger, stronger, faster defenders is a very tough job, and it's plagued quality running backs like Trent Richardson at the next level. Gurley has the skill set to acclimate just fine.
When evaluating vision, I like to look at different areas of the field for the running back:
- Vision when running between the tackles in short-yardage situations.
- Vision on cutback runs.
- Vision on outside runs.
- Vision in space.
Here's how Gurley stacks up in those areas:
1) Between the tackles, he locates the hole and runs with power to move the pile. He can run high and will leave his feet prematurely, but his ability to find the rushing lane isn't an issue. He finds secondary rushing lanes if the initial hole is closed and can make that adjustment on the fly with no hesitation.
2) Blessed with great agility, Gurley is able to plant and go on cutbacks and has the speed to pull away from defenders if he's asked to cross the formation. His peripheral vision to see the cutback and find a better way to space is impressive. He feels space on the move and has broken several long runs thanks to his ability to pick the right lane on a cutback.
3) On outside runs (pitches, tosses, etc.), Gurley operates with patience and vision. This allows him to find a lane on what amounts to a stretch play. He squares his shoulders and hits the hole with no hesitation. And unlike many college runners, he doesn't rely on his speed to get him to the sideline on every outside run. He'll actually cut upfield before completely hitting the edge if there's a lane worth taking.
4) As a runner, receiver and returner, Gurley finds ways to get to space. His vision to cut back against traffic is very good, and he's advanced in his ability to read blockers in space and keep defenders away from him.
Receiving
Gurley is a talented receiver coming out of the backfield, and NFL teams will value that ability. Where he'll need help is as a blocker and pass-protector, as that's an underdeveloped trait of his. He may struggle to see the field early if he's ever asked to stay in as a blocker as opposed to leaking out as a receiver.
NFL teams will definitely want to use him as a screen package receiver.
Gurley shows soft hands and an understanding of where to sit down on option routes out of the backfield. He also has exceptional burst in the open field once he makes the catch. He's a dangerous threat on plays that allow him to delay his route out of the backfield, make a grab in the flats and then explode upfield with his speed and vision.
The lack of blocking ability will be something teams can focus on in training camp and OTAs, but right away, Gurley's hands will be an asset on passing downs.
Overall
I reached out to several NFL scouts and general managers in the aftermath of Gurley's suspension, and while one did say Gurley's actions were "selfish to his team," none indicated it would hurt his NFL chances.
In fact, one even said that Gurley missing the rest of the season may help his stock since he's not taking SEC punishment for seven or eight more games. He is an elite-level running back, a once-in-a-decade talent on par with Adrian Peterson in terms of raw ability.
NFL teams may look at his suspension for selling his autograph as foolish, but it doesn't compare in any way to the rare abilities of this 20-year-old powerhouse running back. On talent, he should be one of the top 10 picks in the 2015 NFL draft.
The NFL has devalued the running back position of late, but it also hasn't seen a player of this caliber on the board. It was easy to bypass Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and Carlos Hyde in Round 1 (and teams would love to redo these picks now), but Gurley is in a talent class above where these players were slated.
Teams that want a do-it-all back with breakaway speed and bone-breaking power will have Gurley very high on their boards. On my personal big board, he currently ranks No. 6 overall and won't be moving from that spot based on this suspension.
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