Lions vs. Vikings: Breaking Down Minnesota's Game Plan

The Minnesota Vikings will meet the Detroit Lions in the home team’s second divisional game, coming off a thumping in Green Bay last week.

Minnesota mopped the floor with Detroit in the friendly confines of the Metrodome, winning 15 of the last 16 showdowns. This matchup will be the Lions’ first trip to TCF Bank Stadium, the temporary home of the Vikings. Whether Minnesota can replicate previous dominance over Detroit in a new setting remains to be seen.

Only a single game separates the bottom of the NFC North from the top, so every divisional game will have increased importance at this point in the season. Detroit will look to extend their lead atop the black-and-blue division. A win for Minnesota brings the team’s record back to even within the division and in terms of total record.

One not-so-typical aspect of this Lions-Vikings matchup is the quality of the Detroit defense. The Boys in Blue have been strong offensively but leaky defensively in recent years. That description no longer fits.

Detroit’s defense has the league’s best drive success rate, a Football Outsiders measure for percentage of down series resulting in a first down or touchdown for the offense. The unit is also No. 1 in defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders, a more encompassing measure that adjusts for strength of opposing offenses. Basically, the Lions defense has been one of the league’s best thus far.

Let’s draw up a game plan for the Vikings offense first, trying to figure out how an up-and-down unit can be successful against a defense like Detroit’s.

Spread the field with appropriate personnel groupings

The Lions have an excellent pair of cornerbacks on the perimeter in Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis. The No. 3 cornerback position leads to question marks, however.

Detroit’s secondary depth was undercut by injuries, with two cornerbacks on injured reserve in Bill Bentley and Nevin Lawson. Danny Gorrer has been called into action in their stead, and the Lions have also played three safeties occasionally, both responses achieving mixed results.

Sending more receiving threats onto the field forces Detroit's hand. The depth of the defense’s secondary is one of its weak spots.

Spreading the field means more of the same for Minnesota’s offense with Teddy Bridgewater back into the fold. These are the offensive personnel groupings used by the Vikings, while Bridgewater was under center against Atlanta.

Down	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total	Percent
11	18	15	8	0	41	62%
12	9	6	1	0	16	24%
21	3	2	1	0	6	9%
22	0	1	1	0	2	3%
6+ OL	0	0	0	1	1	2%

Groupings are numbered to represent which skill players are on the field. The first number indicates how many running backs are on the field, and the second number represents how many tight ends. The rest, up to five, are receivers unless an extra offensive lineman enters.

As you can see, offensive coordinator Norv Turner greatly preferred using 11 or “Posse” personnel. Beyond that, he preferred to use two tight ends, consisting of some combination of Rhett Ellison, Chase Ford and MarQueis Gray.

The best plan for Minnesota against Detroit is to use less of the 12 personnel and more of the 11. Introducing some sets with four receivers would be productive as well, though Turner did not do so in Bridgewater’s first start.

Bringing on the No. 4 receiver, most likely Adam Thielen, and taking off the tight ends periodically can help the offense. None of the Minnesota tight ends have been especially effective as run-blockers, and Thielen holds his own in this category. The tight ends also stood up in two-point stances frequently against Atlanta, similar to slot receivers, so making this player an actual wide receiver makes sense.

Spreading the field also creates more operational space in the box, which would aid a run game that lacks an effective runner in tight spaces. The spacing can also dissuade Detroit from blitzing, simplifying the job for Minnesota’s offensive line.

Key on the Detroit defensive tackles and anticipate stunts

The best way for a shaky Minnesota line to protect the recently injured rookie quarterback is to slow down the duo of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Ends Ezekiel Ansah and Jason Jones can also punish an offensive line, but the Vikings are especially overmatched on the interior.

Center John Sullivan holds his own, but he can only do so much. Guards Vlad Ducasse and Charlie Johnson are the two players Detroit will pinpoint as weak spots.

Exotic blitzes aren’t Detroit’s forte. Instead, they have done a terrific job freeing up their rushers through varied alignments and stunts along the defensive front.

Suh and Fairley have the athleticism to contain as rushers from the outside, while Ansah and Jones have the power to be effective between the tackles. The versatility of those four players gives defensive coordinator Teryl Austin the freedom to play games with opposing offensive lines up front.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

This alignment has both defensive tackles on the defense’s left. Suh crashes inside, Fairley loops around and the Lions corral Aaron Rodgers for a sack.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Suh loops around Jones this time, coming free to put a big hit on Kyle Orton.

These plays can create confusion for any offensive lineman who doesn’t properly anticipate the stunt and react accordingly. When one rusher comes off the ball with power and crosses a whole gap, the blocker must anticipate another rusher coming around the bend. Suh, Fairley, Jones and Ansah will put the hurt on Bridgewater unless the Vikings line can properly handle the stunts.

Create numerical advantages with packaged plays

Turner went away from the difficult-to-defend packaged plays with Christian Ponder at quarterback, despite the success Bridgewater had with them against Atlanta.

These plays can be effective against defenses that aren’t sound in terms of position or defenses that lapse in assignment responsibility. The quarterback has defined reads after he catches the snap that tell him to hand off, throw the ball quickly or even run it himself.

Packaged plays are similar to read-option plays in that a defender can essentially be removed. Usually that means leaving a defensive lineman free, allowing the quarterback to read his momentum and react appropriately. Bridgewater will often read a second-level defender to decide run or pass. Extra space can be created in the box by using these reads, which will help the running game come along too.

Bridgewater was able to successfully key on Atlanta’s linebackers and safeties in Week 4, showing decisiveness in his reads. If Bridgewater is as healthy as he says, Turner doesn’t need to pull back on these read-option-like plays. They are ones he has succeeded with thus far after all.

Here's an example of what one of these plays looks like, per Matt Bowen:

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#Vikings tape: Multiple packaged plays for Bridgewater to target inside throwing windows. Seam out of Trips: pic.twitter.com/NHAXUbrbvg

— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) September 30, 2014"

Short and intermediate passing is the rookie’s specialty as a quarterback, so expect Minnesota to emphasize underneath passing as well. Bridgewater has the autonomy to check into different passing plays, which he showed against Atlanta, and that should continue too.

Take shots over the top to keep Detroit’s safeties honest

As the Vikings nickel and dime their way down the field offensively, the Lions will be tempted to get more aggressive with their safeties, making the rookie quarterback beat them with deep passing.

Minnesota must be willing to let Bridgewater unleash the deep ball, even while admitting that he thrives in other areas of the passing game.

Jarius Wright or Cordarrelle Patterson getting single coverage on the outside is the most opportune time for the deep ball, because both possess the long speed to win down the field. Bridgewater must recognize coverage in order to pick his spots correctly.

Even if these plays aren’t successful, the Lions safeties will take notice. Manufacturing these deep throws through effective play-calling gives the offense a chance to sustain their success through small gains by keeping the safeties deep. Hopefully Bridgewater throws with more accuracy down the field as well.

Expect imbalance from the Detroit offense

Despite an overhauled coaching staff in Detroit in 2014, the reliance on the passing game is still a feature of the offense.

With five weeks in the books, this is how the Lions’ offensive balance compares to previous Vikings opponents in terms of first-half play selection:

	Run	Pass
Lions	35.4%	64.6%
'14 Opponents	40.3%	59.7%

That imbalance should implore the Minnesota defensive line to anticipate pass, especially in longer down-and-distance situations. Stopping the run on early downs can help.

Pressure Stafford early

Generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks is always important defensively but even more so against Matthew Stafford. Bleacher Report NFL National Lead writer Michael Schottey highlighted Stafford's reaction to the Bills pressure:

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Safe to say that Stafford is not exactly feeling it right now. Bills defense getting minor pressure and he’s feeling it in a major way.

— Michael Schottey (@Schottey) October 5, 2014"

Early pressure sets the table for the rush the rest of the game. If Stafford’s trust begins to slip with his offensive line, he will feel ghosts in the pocket and be even more sensitive to rushers who are there. Productivity from pass-rushers has increased value against Stafford in comparison to other quarterbacks. Rod Beard of The Detroit News shared Stafford's completion percentage when under pressure:

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#Lions Matthew Stafford ranks 26th in the league in completion percentage under pressure (34.1 percent).

— Rod Beard (@detnewsRodBeard) October 7, 2014"

If the Minnesota defensive line fails to assert itself and blitzes fail to get home, Stafford will pick up big gains with downfield throws. No secondary is designed to hold up for longer than a few seconds on a regular basis, and that threshold may be even lower for the Vikings defense right now.

Give extra attention to Golden Tate

Calvin Johnson did not practice on Wednesday, and his status is still up in the air for Sunday. That may ease the minds of Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota defense, but Golden Tate has blossomed into a star receiver over the last few weeks.

He currently stands as the No. 5 receiver in the league in receiving yards and tied at No. 10 for receptions. No other player on Detroit’s offense can beat the Vikings in a variety of ways like Tate can.

Detroit uses the diminutive receiver in numerous ways, lining him up more often than not in the slot. Tight end Eric Ebron will occasionally line up in the slot too, sometimes outside of Tate to see how the defense reacts. Minnesota will most likely address Tate with Captain Munnerlyn, though the summer signing has had a rough patch of recent games for the Vikings.

The Lions have been especially keen on working Tate over the middle of the field, using his short-area quickness and spatial awareness to find holes in the defense. Stafford and Tate have picked on defenses in recent weeks with simple slant routes too.

Wide receiver screens are another way Detroit has tried to capture Tate’s jitterbug-like qualities.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

After Tate catches the passes, he looks to follow his blocks and make the correct cut to find daylight. Pursuit lanes at the second level are critical for the Vikings. After quick-play recognition, safeties must drive on the play with the correct leverage, with someone containing Tate’s running lanes from the outside. Linebackers must flow to the perimeter and pursue from inside out, closing off cutback lanes.

Missed tackles will be even more costly this week. Both Tate and Reggie Bush, if the running back is a go on Sunday (did not practice Wednesday), are elusive in the open field and require technically sound tackling to get to the turf. Poor tackling will let the Detroit offense march right down the field without having to expose Stafford to the rush.

Keep the Lions out of the red zone

Once the Detroit offense crosses the 50-yard line, the Minnesota defense can spare themselves a great deal of points by stiffening up as soon as possible. The Stafford-led Lions are No. 9 in the NFL in points per red-zone visit and No. 11 in touchdowns per red-zone visit, per Football Outsiders.

Testing out the Detroit kicking game by getting stops before the offense reaches the red zone could save the Vikings defense in Week 6. Woeful is an optimistic analysis of the Detroit kickers to this point. Nate Freese and Alex Henery are a combined 1-9 on field-goal attempts of 40 yards or more in 2014.

Now the Lions have moved on to Matt Prater, the team’s third kicker of the season. Sunday’s game will be his first of the 2014 season, so a little rust can be expected.

Anytime the Vikings defense doesn’t break, no matter how severe it bends, that’s great news.

No coverage gaffes

Blunders in communication or positioning have let down the Minnesota defense in crucial situations in each of the last three weeks. The unit cannot afford to give up easy points to Detroit on Sunday if the Vikings wish to hang around.

Detroit’s slow pace may sooth those concerned with the defense’s readiness. The Lions have one of the most methodical offenses in the league, running a play every 29.5 seconds, according to Football Outsiders. Only five teams take more time than Detroit between an average offensive play.

The bigger windows should give Minnesota’s defense adequate time to communicate assignments, align properly and cut out major mistakes while the physical and mental drainage lessens. 

The confidence of the team should rebound with the return of Bridgewater to the offense and the extra time off between this game and the last.

A win on Sunday would bring the Vikings to 3-3 as the team heads into a soft part of the schedule. Building momentum with a divisional victory is the perfect way for Minnesota to set up the rest of the season for success.