Houston Texans Need to Control Game Flow to Beat Indianapolis Colts

The strength of the Houston Texans, at this point, is their ability to close out games. They have one of the very best pass defenses in the NFL (sixth in DVOA, per Football Outsiders), headlined by J.J. Watt and the coverage skills of cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson.

And while their running game has been more inconsistent this year, running back Arian Foster's vision and Houston's solid offensive line make it easy for the Texans to drain clock with the lead. 

Of course, to use that strength, Houston has to actually grab the lead. And that's been problematic over the last three weeks. 

Chase Stuart at Football Perspective has created a score that he calls "game scripts." It reads the average margin a team faces for every second of a football game. See if you can figure out where Houston started losing games: 

Week	Opponent	Game Script
1	v. WAS	4.3
2	@ OAK	15.9
3	@ NYG	-7.5
4	v. BUF	1.5
5	@ DAL	-1.9

Simply put, the run/pass ratio often follows the game script. And, when Houston has asked quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to step up and win the game with his arm, that prayer has often gone unanswered.

Squared off against the Colts, the Texans should be able to run the ball effectively. The Colts come into this game with the 31st-ranked rushing defense in the league, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. (Yes, Colts fans, this is the end result of all that emphasis on stopping the run this offseason. This is where it has gotten Indianapolis to this point.) 

For Houston to spring the upset and keep its hopes of a division title alive, it'll want to always keep the game script accommodating. That keeps the run as a major option, allows head coach Bill O'Brien to manufacture safe and easy passes for Ryan Fitzpatrick and makes the Colts have to fight the Houston pass defense rather than ganging up on the soft run defense. 

	Pass Offense	Run Offense	Pass Defense	Run Defense
IND	27.6% (9th)	-19.4% (24th)	-0.5% (11th)	8.4% (31st)
HOU	4.9% (23rd)	-10.6% (20th)	-6.1% (6th)	1.2% (25th)

Now, part of Houston's success in pass defense has been a matter of it being opportunistic. Nobody even comes close to the nine red-zone turnovers Houston's defense has forced this year, and that has fortuitously kept it in some games. (In the case of the J.J. Watt pick-six, it probably won it that game all by itself.) 

Houston's pass rush will also benefit from the news that both starting Colts guards—Jack Mewhort and Hugh Thornton—will sit this game out with injuries. That leaves the Indianapolis starting lineup in question.

Assuming that shifting center A.Q. Shipley to guard so that undrafted free-agent center Jonotthan Harrison could take over inside is something that continues, expect either guard Lance Louis or swingman Joe Reitz to draw a start. 

However, quarterback/witch Andrew Luck isn't exactly easy to take down. One of the under-the-radar improvements Luck and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton have been working on is getting the ball out quickly. Indianapolis ranks sixth in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate. Luck has cut the sack rate nearly in half, from 5.3 percent last year to just 3 percent so far this year. 

Thus, a weakness versus a weakness may be the deciding factor in this game. The Colts will be starting three questionable offensive linemen. The Texans will be looking for a pass rush from a unit that, outside of Watt, has seemed incapable of providing it. 

Colts OL	Pass-Blocking Rating	Texans Rusher	Pass-Rushing Rating
A.Q. Shipley	+2.2	Whitney Mercilus	-3.6
Jonotthan Harrison	+1.5	Tim Jamison	-4.7
Lance Louis	-0.5	Jared Crick	1.4
Joe Reitz	DNP (+1.9 in 2013)	Brooks Reed	-1.6

In the AFC South, this is how games are often decided: by seeing which unit is weaker. 

Houston's game plan is simple: jump on the Colts early, pray that inconsistent Andrew Luck shows up in the first half and pray that Andrew Luck in Full Witchcraft Mode (second-half version) slips up just enough to let the Texans win. 

Of course, given that the Texans' first-half offensive DVOA is minus-28.9 percent—31st in the NFL per Football Outsiders—you'd be forgiven for not believing they can pull that off.