NFL Predictions Week 6: Can't-Miss Picks and Matchup Guide

With road teams favored in eight of the 15 games on the Week 6 NFL schedule, one can only assume that the unpredictability of the 2014 season will continue this weekend.

Although every week is independent from others in the NFL, the law of averages makes it quite obvious that there will be some unexpected results with so much confidence being placed in road teams. At the same time, favored home teams come at a premium, and this may be the week to put extra trust in some of them.

Expecting the unexpected has become the norm in the current landscape of the NFL, but there are always a few games on the schedule that can be exploited.

Here is a full rundown of picks both straight up and against the spread for Week 6, as well as further analysis regarding the best selections on the board.

*Point spreads courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Date	Away	Home	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Oct. 9	Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans	IND (-3.5)	IND	IND
Oct. 12	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	DET (-3)	DET	DET
Oct. 12	Denver Broncos	New York Jets	DEN (-9.5)	DEN	NYJ
Oct. 12	New England Patriots	Buffalo Bills	NE (-3)	BUF	BUF
Oct. 12	Baltimore Ravens	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	BAL (-3.5)	BAL	TB
Oct. 12	Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-7)	CIN	CAR
Oct. 12	Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	TEN (-6)	TEN	JAC
Oct. 12	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	CLE (-2)	PIT	PIT
Oct. 12	Green Bay Packers	Miami Dolphins	GB (-3.5)	GB	GB
Oct. 12	San Diego Chargers	Oakland Raiders	SD (-7)	SD	SD
Oct. 12	Chicago Bears	Atlanta Falcons	ATL (-3.5)	ATL	ATL
Oct. 12	Washington Redskins	Arizona Cardinals	ARI (-4)	WAS	WAS
Oct. 12	Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-9.5)	SEA	SEA
Oct. 12	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-3)	PHI	PHI
Oct. 13	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	SF (-3)	SF	SF

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Perhaps no team in the NFL is more surprising than the 4-1 Dallas Cowboys. Despite huge question marks surrounding the defense and the health of quarterback Tony Romo, Dallas has been among the NFL's best teams and is currently riding a four-game winning streak.

With that said, nobody is particularly shocked that the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks are playing excellent football. Aside from a slip-up against the San Diego Chargers, the Seahawks have looked every bit as good on both sides of the ball as they did last year.

The Cowboys have an opportunity to make a big-time statement by upsetting the Seahawks, but that is much easier said than done, especially in Seattle. The Seahawks are 9-1 in their past 10 games at CenturyLink Field, and they are huge favorites despite Dallas' strong play.

Home-field advantage is a big reason for that, as is the potential weather. According to KIRO 7 meteorologist Morgan Palmer, there is rain in the forecast for Sunday's game:

Although the Cowboys have thrived with a ball-control offense that emphasizes the running game, they are used to playing in a controlled climate at AT&T Stadium. Romo isn't exactly adept at making big plays in adverse conditions, while Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson seems to thrive in those types of situations.

In addition to that, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett seems intent on lessening running back DeMarco Murray's workload. While Murray has been the driving force behind Dallas' success, Garrett wants to preserve him so that he remains effective as the season progresses, per ESPN.com's Todd Archer.

"

DeMarco was out there and we think that's probably too many carries in the game, week in and week out. He ended up with 31 so we'd like to get that number lower. We'd really just like to get the other guys an opportunity. I don't see any wear and tear in DeMarco but having said that, we want to make sure we create a rotation and we'll focus on doing that in the next few weeks.

"

That means there will be more responsibility heaped on Romo's shoulders, and that isn't a recipe for success against Seattle's all-world secondary in rainy conditions.

Also, the Cowboys defense has yet to be exposed because of the offense's ability to control the ball. The Seahawks offense may be even better in that regard, though, because of Wilson's decision-making and the hard running of Marshawn Lynch.

Dallas is allowing nearly 370 yards of offense per game, and that is something the Seahawks can take advantage of. The Cowboys are due for a reality check of sorts, and the champs are more than willing to deliver it.

Washington Redskins (+4) at Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals were one of just two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL entering their Week 5 clash with the Denver Broncos. The Cards suffered their first loss of the season in that matchup, but they have a chance to right the ship at home against the Washington Redskins in Week 6.

While Washington is floundering in last place in the NFC East at 1-4, it turned in a positive performance against the Seahawks in Week 5. The Redskins took them down to the wire, which suggests that they can compete with a Cardinals team that is Seattle-lite in many ways.

Perhaps the biggest thing working in Washington's favor is Arizona's quarterback situation. Carson Palmer has missed the past three games, and it is unclear if he will be able to return this week. Palmer is still nursing a shoulder injury, and head coach Bruce Arians didn't exactly seem to be overflowing with confidence regarding Palmer's status on Tuesday, according to Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com. Said Arians:

"

He threw some more today. We'll see how that thing responds. The last time he upped the ante on it, it swelled back up so tomorrow will be a very critical day to see how it responds. If he can continue then I think he could possibly practice Thursday or Friday.

"

If Palmer can't go, then rookie Logan Thomas may have to start. Thomas played in relief of Drew Stanton against the Broncos when Stanton was forced to leave the game due to a concussion, per Craig Morgan of Fox Sports Arizona:

Thomas did throw an impressive touchdown pass to running back Andre Ellington, but he is definitely a project at this point. If Thomas is forced to start, the Washington defense is likely to apply plenty of pressure on the rookie.

At the same time, the Cards may not be much better off if Palmer starts, since it is unlikely that he will be 100 percent. Arizona's quarterback situation is in disarray, and that is something the Redskins can take advantage of.

Also, Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins performed well against the Seahawks. He happens to have a varied receiving corps featuring DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon as well. The Cards struggled to slow down Denver's deep group of receivers in Week 5, so Washington may be able to do something similar.

Arizona is a team that often finds ways to win even when adversity is mounting, but the quarterback conundrum will prove to be too much to overcome.

Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. New England Patriots

On the heels of the New England Patriots' dominant victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5, many are back on the bandwagon after burying them following an embarrassing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. In actuality, the real Pats are likely somewhere in between those two performances.

They are tied atop the AFC East at 3-2 despite their issues, and the team they are tied with is the surprising Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a great deal of momentum after a come-from-behind victory over the Detroit Lions on the road in Week 5. With sole possession of first in the AFC East up for grabs, Sunday's meeting should be an exciting one.

That excitement is augmented by the fact that Terry and Kim Pegula were unanimously approved as the Bills' new owners on Wednesday, according to SportsCenter:

With the Bills' future in Buffalo cemented, fans will have even more to cheer about at Ralph Wilson Stadium. In fact, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady knows that the Buffalo fans will be quite rowdy on Sunday, per ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss:

Those intangibles will definitely help the Bills, but it can be argued that Buffalo simply has a better all-around team than New England. There are definite question marks on offense with veteran Kyle Orton starting under center, but he made enough plays to help the Bills win against a tough Lions team on the road.

Where Buffalo truly shines, though, is on defense. The Bills are eighth in the league with less than 323 yards allowed per game and fifth in scoring defense at under 18 points surrendered per contest.

Add in the fact that Buffalo is tied for fourth in interceptions with six and first in sacks with 17, and it isn't difficult to imagine this being an incredibly tough assignment for Brady and the Pats.

The Bills were spectacular against a potent Lions offense last week, and they did it without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kyle Williams. While Williams is no lock to play, he did return to practice Wednesday, according to ESPN.com's Mike Rodak:

Even if Williams doesn't play, fellow tackle Marcell Dareus had three sacks last week, and he has the skill set necessary to exploit New England's poor guard play. The Pats also have to worry about Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes rushing off the edge, so they'll essentially have to pick their poison.

Provided Orton is able to manage the offense and limit mistakes, there is no reason why the Bills can't win this game. Giving Buffalo three points at home is almost ludicrous in this situation, and it will prove in Week 6 that it should have been favored.

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