Florida State Seminoles vs. Syracuse Orange Betting Odds: Analysis, Prediction

Playing through controversy and suspensions, Florida State is off to a 5-0 start in defense of its national championship. The Seminoles are also 3-1 against the spread in their last four road games, showing that good teams giving shorter spreads than usual are good bets. FSU finds itself in that spot again this week, when it visits Syracuse Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: Seminoles opened as 20-point favorites at Carrier Dome, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 42.5-21.1 Seminoles

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

The Seminoles are 5-0 after brushing off Wake Forest last week 43-3, covering the spread as 37-point favorites. Florida State spotted the Demon Deacons the first three points of the game, then scored the last 43, picking up the cover on a meaningless field goal with five minutes left in the game.

The 'Noles outgained Wake Forest 475-126 and went 10-of-18 on third-down conversions. Two weeks ago, FSU spotted North Carolina State an early 24-7 lead, then rolled back for a 56-41 victory, coming up just short of the cover at -16. So in the four games this season Jameis Winston has started, the Seminoles have averaged 43 points.

Why the Syracuse Orange can cover the spread

The Orange started 2-0 this year but have struggled recently, as the schedule has gotten a little tougher. Three weeks ago, Syracuse outgained Maryland by over 200 yards but lost because it gave up a couple of big plays for scores.

Two weeks ago, the Orange gave Notre Dame a decent game at MetLife Stadium, although they couldn't quite cover as 10-point dogs.

Last week, Syracuse only trailed Louisville by six points late into the third quarter but gave up the last 16 points of the game. If the Orange can limit the big plays, perhaps pull off a couple of their own and give a full four-quarter effort, they could stay in this one.

Smart Pick

Florida State beat Syracuse last year 59-3, covering at -37, and while the 'Noles won't win this one by 56 points, they will win. And teams that win games usually—repeat, usually—cover the spread. So the pick here goes with FSU, at a line that's two touchdowns less than the one it covered in this spot last year.

Trends

• The total has gone over in six of Florida State's last seven games on the road.
• Syracuse is 2-4 straight up in its last six games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.