Pittsburgh Steelers Top 2009 Breakout Candidates

The Pittsburgh Steelers are famous for their low roster turnover from season to season.  In an era of free agency, where established stars seemingly change teams as often as socks, the Steelers always seem to find a way to retain most of their players.

There is no denying that players love playing in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers' success in the age of free agency goes beyond the environment.  The Steelers have some smart football people in the front office.

Director of Football Operations Kevin Colbert and his staff have a zen for signing and drafting not only the right people, but people who will spend most if not all of their careers in Pittsburgh.

That does not mean that the Steelers lack several potential breakout candidates as they head toward the opening of 2009's training camp.  In fact, for a team with so many established stars, the Steelers have quite a few players primed for a career year.

Here's a look at those players:

Offense

Santonio Holmes, WR

It's hard to say that a player coming off of a Super Bowl performance that earned him MVP honors is a breakout candidate, but Holmes' stellar postseason performances masked a so-so regular season.

Holmes' statistics from the 2008 regular season (55 receptions, 821 yards, 5 TDs) are pedestrian for starter.

As a former first-round pick, Holmes will be expected to step it up in his fourth year.

Hines Ward is approaching the downside of his career and, with the physical way he plays the game, is becoming an injury risk. Holmes should emerge in 2009 as Ben Roethlisberger's top target.

His good hands, crisp routes, and circus-catch ability make him a potential star in the NFL, but he must avoid the mental lapses and off-field issues that seemed to mark his 2008 campaign.

I would expect Holmes to catch between 80 and 90 passes, eclipse the 1,000 yard barrier, and have around 10 touchdowns in 2009.

Limas Sweed, WR

If anyone had a more visibly difficult postseason than Sweed, the Steelers' 2008 second-round draft pick, I missed it.

Sweed dropped a sure touchdown pass near the end of the first half of the Steelers' AFC Championship matchup with Baltimore.  He made a nice block a few plays later, but he struggled to step up in the Steelers offense during his rookie season.

Now that Sweed has that experience under his belt, he will be asked to take on at least part of the role vacated by Nate Washington, who fled to Tennessee in the offseason.

Sweed has great tools, particularly his height and speed. He projects as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 receiver, but he played nothing like that in 2008.

For Sweed, success will be all about taking every opportunity to make a play of some kind. He has good blocking skills and decent route running ability (which should improve with experience) and, in college, nice hands.

Perhaps the best thing for Sweed will be the competition with Shaun McDonald and others for the third receiver spot.  If Sweed can thrive on the competition, he should have a breakout campaign much the way his predecessor (Washington) did.

I would expect Sweed to eventually emerge as the team's third option in the passing game and to have 30-50 catches, 500-600 yards, and five touchdowns.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB

Mendenhall had quite possibly the shortest rookie season in memory.  Mendenhall played in four games and had only 19 carries for 58 yards before a hard hit by Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis broke his shoulder and ended his season.

Mendenhall has great skills, but until we see how he reacts in a full season of NFL action, it will be hard to judge whether or not he can run at the NFL level.

Healthy once again, Mendenhall could reasonably be expected to split the starting running back job with Willie Parker.  Mendenhall will be expected to get the tough yards in the middle that the smaller Parker cannot.

Mendenhall should give the Steelers a presence near the endzone as well. He will compete with rookie Frank Summers for the job that Gary Russell did last season. Mendenhall should win that job.

It is hard to project Mendenhall's statistics with so little information to work with. If he successfully platoons with Parker and is the team's red zone running back, Mendenhall should be expected to contribute at least 500-600 yards and 10-plus touchdowns.

Defense

William Gay, CB

Gay, now in his third season, filled in nicely when Bryant McFadden was injured last season.  Now, Gay gets the first crack at replacing McFadden, who bolted for Arizona this spring.

Gay has good speed and coverage skills to make up for his lack of height.  His vertical jump is also quite good.  His above-average hands make him a threat to take a pass away if he has the opportunity.

More so than veteran Ike Taylor, Gay is a smart player who does not often take pass interference calls. He plays large and fast. 

Gay should beat out aging Deshea Townsend for the starting job this season, and it would not be surprising to see him finish with a few interceptions and sacks next season. Dick LeBeau loves to bring the corners on a blitz, and Gay's speed will make him dangerous in that regard.

Lawrence Timmons, LB

With veteran Larry Foote leaving for his native Detroit after this April's draft, it is now up to Timmons to carry on the great tradition of Steelers linebackers.

Timmons should prove to be an upgrade from Foote because of his speed and pass rushing ability.  Foote was a good run-stuffer, but was not as effective on passing downs.  Timmons began to take playing time away from him last season. Now it will be his job to lose.

Expect the Steelers to use Timmons on several blitz packages and for him to play a role similar to that of Ray Lewis. His job will be to disrupt the middle of the field and be a threat to rush or drop into coverage. 

If Timmons plays to his potential, he will likely free up outside linebackers James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley even more. Timmons should contribute at least five sacks to the defensive effort if not more. I'd also expect him to come away with an interception or two thanks to his pass rush and coverage ability.

Rookies Who Could Contribute in 2009

Joe Burnett, CB; Frank Summer, RB; Mike Wallace, WR