Sprint Cup Chase 2014: Updated Odds for NASCAR's Chase for the Championship
They’re 400 miles into the Contender Round of the Chase, and Joey Logano punctuated Kansas with an exclamation point with his second win of the Chase.
As the field of 12 drivers head to Charlotte, the pressure mounts. The big, bad wolf that is Talladega closes out the Contender Round, so drivers need to take care of business while they can.
Kansas showed us that nothing is certain and that even the mighty Hendrick Motorsports team is fallible. It may have taken a six-time champion out of the Chase.
Jay Pennell of Fox Sports writes:
"This weekend at Kansas Speedway has been anything but typical for six-time Sprint Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson, who wrecked out early in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 and appeared to take a big hit in his hopes of successfully defending the latest championship he won last year.
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Others fared better. Let’s look at their updated odds now that we’re one race into the Contender Round.
Odds were created by the author. The odds represent a driver's total body of work going back to the regular season and the Challenger Round with consideration given to recent performances. The slideshow runs in ascending order (12th place to first in points) and labels each driver either a favorite, contender, dark horse or long shot.
Jimmie Johnson
1 of 12
Contender, 18-1
Current Place, 12th
Jimmie Johnson, fourth in the Chase standings entering Kansas, was tagged by Greg Biffle and slammed into the inner wall. As a result his odds took a significant whack as well. Now he's 12th in the Chase and needs to win.
The crash put the six-time champ out of the race and put his chances at winning the Chase in serious jeopardy. Johnson hasn’t been the force he was earlier in the year, and now the pressure is on as he heads to Charlotte where he won this year’s Coca-Cola 600. Can the No. 48 regroup and be a force in the remaining six races?
On the ESPN broadcast after the crash, Johnson said:
"It just means we’ve got to be on our game in Charlotte and Taladega. There’s still a lot of racing left and see how the other Chasers fare. If I can get taken out today then somebody else can in this event or at Charlotte. We’ll do our best to get on track and assume we need Ws going forward.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2 of 12
Contender, 15-1
Current Place, 11th
Hendrick Motorsports took another hit when Dale Earnhardt Jr. blew a right front tire and smashed into the wall. The No. 88 had company in the garage seeing as the No. 48, his teammate Johnson, had arrived 15 minutes before.
The 88 car burned it up at Kansas leading 45 laps before he slammed into the wall.
“That was a great car,” Earnhardt said during the ESPN broadcast. “We hadn’t been running great the last couple of weeks, but man, we came in here with a great attitude and great fast car. It’s the car we won Pocono with. Hopefully we didn’t hurt it too bad.”
Earnhardt is still a strong contender in the Chase, despite losing a lot of ground at Kansas. If crew chief Steve Letarte and company come back with a car this strong, Earnhardt will be just fine going forward.
Brad Keselowski
3 of 12
Favorite, 4-1
Current Place, 10th
Brad Keselowski, like a few Chase drivers at Kansas, found his way to the garage after blowing a right front tire.
Keseloswki, the 2012 Sprint Cup champion, had a very strong Challenger Round and was ranked No. 1 in the standings. During the ESPN broadcast he expressed concern that his team wouldn’t have a great run at Kansas (Kansas being a weaker track for the two).
BK and Team Penske are still a heavy favorite to reach the Eliminator Round, but another untimely effort like he had at Kansas and he could fall out of Chase contention.
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Kasey Kahne
4 of 12
Long Shot, 25-1
Current Place, ninth
Kasey Kahne was 18th after a late restart before finding the wall—the third Hendrick collision (the fourth if you count Gordon’s little tap on the wall early in the race).
Kahne, at times, has a top-five car, and he’s very capable of winning races, but winning the Chase? That’s out of the question for this long shot. The way some of the big fish went belly-up at Kansas has to give drivers such as Kahne hope they can outlast the rest of the field.
Kahne heads to Charlotte, a track where he’s won before, and a win there would seal a trip to the Eliminator Round. It’s still hard to vote heavily in his favor. He had just one win in the regular season, and he was all-out to qualify for the 12th spot in the Contender Round.
Jeff Gordon
5 of 12
Contender, 15-1
Current Place, eighth
Jeff Gordon, who finished 14th at Kansas, was never a factor and failed to parlay his win from Dover into a respectable showing at Kansas. His spotter tried to keep the sun shining by saying, “Gotta keep the challenge here,” during the ESPN broadcast.
Gordon isn’t exactly a favorite, but given the season he’s had to date, he’s not a dark horse either. He’s smack dab in the middle of "Contenderland" and has to be respected based on past performance.
"Today was a real survival day; we could've finished better than that," said Gordon during the ESPN broadcast.
Matt Kenseth
6 of 12
Long Shot, 25-1
Current Place, seventh
Matt Kenseth’s flat-soda season continues. At this point he simply feels like the person who hangs out too long at the party. He won seven races a year ago, but he hasn't won any in 2014.
Kansas again showed that 2014 is just not Kenseth's year. He drove well enough to get into the Chase on points alone, but he's done nothing to show he's capable of being one of the final four.
Right now he's in that top eight that will advance to the Eliminator Round, but it's a tenuous hold he has on that spot.
Kevin Harvick
7 of 12
Favorite: 6-1
Current Place, sixth
Kevin Harvick used his eighth pole of the year to finish 12th. Whatever he and the No. 4 team are doing they just need to keep the car straight and on the track.
He’s led several hundred laps this year but only has a couple of wins to show for it. So long as he stays this close to the top every week, he’ll be one of the final four drivers and the likely favorite to win the Chase.
Still, there has to be some worry in his camp. He starts many of these races strong, but he finds a way to fade late.
“I thought I had a flat tire and pitted because you see all the trouble going on,” Harvick said on ESPN after the race. “When I thought I had a flat, it got us behind. It didn’t turn.”
Denny Hamlin
8 of 12
Dark Horse, 24-1
Current Place, fifth
Denny Hamlin’s pit crew is the biggest X-factor in the Chase. If Hamlin’s chances come down to a race on pit road, then he’s got the best chances to hit the line first.
Hamlin is still a dark horse. He’s run well at times but never consistently enough near the top to be a serious threat. But if a race comes down to seconds in the pits, Hamlin has an edge.
“We didn’t think we were going to contend for a win, but we thought we could get a top five,” Hamlin said during the ESPN broadcast. “We don’t have the speed those guys [Johnson, Earnhardt, Keselowsk] have maybe if we get those guys out of this round, we’ll have a chance.”
Ryan Newman
9 of 12
Dark Horse, 22-1
Current Place, fourth
Ryan Newman drove hard at Kansas and reminded everyone he’s in the Chase for a reason. He didn’t win a race in the regular season, yet he still managed to squeeze into the Chase and into the Contender Round.
“I felt like we had a top three or four and obviously some other guys had some misfortunes, but that’s part of the game,” Newman said during the ESPN broadcast.
It should also be said that Brad Daugherty, ESPN's NASCAR analyst, said during the broadcast that Newman is "harder to pass than a kidney stone."
Newman can’t be considered a favorite, or even one of the contenders, but he’s definitely a sneaky pick and good bet at long odds.
Carl Edwards
10 of 12
Long Shot, 25-1
Current Place, third
Carl Edwards has been quiet in 2014. He notched two regular-season wins (at Sonoma and Bristol) and here we see him in third place in the Chase standings and in control of his destiny heading to Charlotte.
Kansas, however, was his home track, and to expect a repeat effort the rest of the way may be too much to ask of Edwards. He drove to impress.
Edwards did finish fourth at Charlotte earlier this year; so if he can stay the course, he could make it to the Eliminator Round, but he's hard to back to win the Chase.
Kyle Busch
11 of 12
Dark Horse, 20-1
Current Place, second
Kyle Busch, like Newman, raced his way to a respectable finish at Kansas. Busch has the capacity to do great things, and his third-place finish in the Hollywood Casino 400 proved that.
It ended up being a two-horse race with Logano and Larson running away from the field, but Busch managed to keep pace and remind everyone he must be respected. He’s a dark horse to win the Chase, especially if some of the big drivers rise from Kansas’ ashes.
“It says good things about us. It’s a matter of trying to keep piecing things like this together,” Busch said during the ESPN broadcast.
Joey Logano
12 of 12
Favorite, 3-1
Current Place, first
Team Penske’s Joey Logano had the best Challenger Round, finishing fourth, first and fourth in the three races. He led 122 laps at Kansas and got stronger as the race unfolded and won the Hollywood Casino 400.
He’s driving at a scary-good level, and now he can drive knowing he’s already qualified for the Eliminator Round. That’s confidence and peace of mind the No. 22 can’t put a price on.
“We’ve got a real shot at winning the championship, and I feel like we’re one of the teams to beat,” Logano said during the ESPN broadcast.
Yes, Logano is the car to beat going forward.
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