2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Driver Rankings: Week 31 Chase Edition
The true magnitude of the new NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup elimination format really hit home last Sunday at Kansas Speedway, where three of the top contenders for this year's championship took major hits to their title hopes.
Really, nothing that transpired in the first 29 races of the season matters now for the 12 drivers left in the Chase.
All that matters is what happened at Kansas in the opening race of the Chase Contender Round and how they will deal with it—whether it was good or bad. Only race winner Joey Logano is currently guaranteed to move on to the Eliminator 8 Round that comes next. Four of the other 11 drivers left in the Chase will be eliminated after the next two races at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway.
"It makes Talladega a lot easier; that is for sure," Logano said (via Fox Sports). "To know we are onto the next round, we can focus on a few more races coming up, and we will keep trying to capitalize like we are doing."
Read on to see where Logano ranks at the moment based on momentum, chemistry with team and crew chief and what lies ahead, as well as where the other 11 drivers remaining stand heading into the next two all-important races.
10-12. Fighting for Chase Survival: The Hendrick Motorsports Trio
1 of 10
Previous Ranking: Jimmie Johnson (No. 4) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 6) were ranked, while Kasey Kahne was not in the top 10.
Why They're Here: All three Hendrick Motorsports drivers suffered miserable days in the Contender Round opener at Kansas that left them vulnerable to failing to make it to the next round of the Chase.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: Johnson was involved in a four-car wreck on Lap 85 of the race at Kansas and finished 40th, leaving him a whopping 44 points behind current Contender Round-standings leader Logano and 27 points out of eighth, which will be the last transfer spot out of this round.
Earnhardt didn't fare much better, having a tire go flat while he was leading and hitting the wall, leaving him with a 39th-place finish, 42 points behind Logano and 25 out of eighth.
Kahne also blew a tire and hit the wall on Lap 235 of last Sunday's race, but at least he salvaged a 22nd-place finish that leaves him 25 points off the lead but only eight out of eighth.
What's Next: Both Johnson and Kahne have strong career track records at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the next track up. They'll need to make a stand there by at least finishing ahead of most of the other Chasers, and they might even need to win to ensure advancement.
Earnhardt probably has a better chance of making his final Contender Round stand at Talladega, but he'll first need at least a respectable finish at Charlotte to make sure he doesn't go to 'Dega so desperate only a dangerous run at a win will do.
9. Matt Kenseth
2 of 10
Previous Ranking: 8
Why He's Here: Matt Kenseth may be in serious Chase-survival trouble, too, but he ranks slightly ahead of Johnson, Earnhardt Jr. and Kahne because he currently sits in a tie with Jeff Gordon for seventh in the Contender Round standings, 17 points out of the lead and eight to the good in front of the cutoff line to advance to the Eliminator 8 Round.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: Consistently the best finisher among the three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers for most of the year (despite having not yet won a race), Kenseth picked a bad time to be the worst-finishing JGR driver at Kansas, where he came home in 13th.
He has been known to get the finishes he needs when he needs them, though, so he still has a good shot of pulling off back-to-back results that could get him through to the next round.
What's Next: Kenseth owns two career wins at Charlotte and one at Talladega. His most recent win at Charlotte came in the fall race in 2011, but he's finished third in each of the last two races held at the track— including last year's fall race and this year's Coca-Cola 600 in May. His lone win at Talladega came in the fall of 2012, and like everyone else he's been wildly up-and-down at the unpredictable 2.66-mile superspeedway.
8. Ryan Newman
3 of 10
Previous Ranking: Not Ranked
Why He's Here: It's difficult to keep Ryan Newman down and rule him out of the Chase conversation after he opened the Contender Round with a strong sixth-place finish at Kansas that left him tied for third with Carl Edwards in the current Chase standings.
He would be ranked higher, but one great finish isn't quite enough to declare him a favorite to move on after a season in which he has had only two finishes better (third at Kentucky in June and fifth at New Hampshire just three weeks later).
Key 2014 Chase Moments: Not only did Newman finish sixth at Kansas, but he also led six laps. And while that might not sound like much, it was the second-highest total number of laps he's led all season (trailing only the total of 14 he led at Michigan in August). In fact, he's led laps in only five races all season.
What's Next: Originally, it was widely thought he was one of the drivers most likely to fall by the wayside in this round. Now he's suddenly in a very enviable position heading into Charlotte and Talladega.
It will take everything Newman and his No. 31 Richard Childress Racing team has to protect it well enough to advance, but now a pair of top-10 finishes over the next two races should be enough—and that's something he's been able to accomplish in four of the last six races.
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7. Carl Edwards
4 of 10
Previous Ranking: 9
Why He's Here: Edwards barely made it out of the first round, but you've got to hand it to him and crew chief Jimmy Fennig. Despite the fact that both already have said they're headed for new jobs after this season, they worked together to produce a fifth-place finish at Kansas that has the No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford team tied for third with Ryan Newman in the current Chase standings.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: Honestly, Edwards' strong run at Kansas came out of nowhere. His average finish over the previous four races was 17.5, yet he somehow made his way into the Contender Round. He's not fast enough to lead laps, having led in only two of the last 14 races for a total of four laps. But he's hanging around.
What's Next: Edwards has never won at either Charlotte or Talladega, but now a victory isn't likely necessary at either track for him to advance. He just needs to back up what he did at Kansas with similar runs at both places, or even just top-10 finishes, and it will be difficult for all those behind him to catch up and pass him in the Contender Round standings.
6. Denny Hamlin
5 of 10
Previous Ranking: 10
Why He's Here: Denny Hamlin finished seventh at Kansas after also nearly being eliminated in the first round. Now he's fifth in the Contender Round standings, only 11 points out of first and just two out of third.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: His key Chase moment was hustling to a 12th-place finish at Dover in the final race of the Challenger Round, which allowed him to overcome his 37th-place disaster a week earlier at New Hampshire when he and crew chief Darian Grubb exchanged hard words with each other over the team radio (via Fox Sports).
Hamlin later said (via Fox Sports) he didn't regret calling his team out, and truthfully it seems to have drawn everyone closer together for a focused run at advancing beyond the Contender Round.
What's Next: Hamlin's lone victory this season came in the spring at Talladega. Maybe that means something heading into this Talladega race and maybe it doesn't. But the fact is that with another strong run at Charlotte, where he has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last eight races, Hamlin won't have to worry about trying to run up front much at 'Dega.
He'll just need to make sure he finishes without wrecking, which is a tall enough order for all drivers at that chaotic track—but certainly easier than knowing you need to win to stay alive in the Chase.
5. Kyle Busch
6 of 10
Previous Ranking: 7
Why He's Here: Kyle Busch had never in his career registered a single top-five finish at Kansas Speedway, so it's understandable that, after finishing third in the opening race of the Chase Contender Round, he was ecstatic. In fact, he told reporters afterward (via Fox Sports) that it felt like a win, adding: "I just didn't get the champagne and a trophy."
Key 2014 Chase Moments: The pseudo-win at Kansas vaulted Busch into second behind Logano in the Contender Round standings, just six points out of the lead. And again, he moved into that position racing at what historically has been one of his worst tracks.
That bodes well for his chances of advancing to the next round, despite having only one victory this season, and according to Bob Pockrass of Sporting News, supposedly close to being on the outs with longtime crew chief Dave Rogers, who has been making the calls atop his pit box since 2010.
What's Next: Other than Logano, who is definitely locked into the next Chase round, Busch currently sits in the best position of any other driver. He just needs to stay out of trouble at Charlotte and Talladega, and he'll advance, so it will be interesting to see if he plays it more conservatively than he might normally.
4. Kevin Harvick
7 of 10
Previous Ranking: 3
Why He's Here: Kevin Harvick's No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet continues to be one of the fastest cars each week, with relatively little to show for it. Harvick started from the pole at Kansas and led 63 laps before being forced to settle for a 13th-place finish that leaves him sixth in the Contender Round standings, 15 behind leader Logano and only 10 in front of Kasey Kahne in ninth.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: The culprit this time in costing Harvick a better finish was, surprisingly, Chase conservatism.
With many of the other top cars at Kansas pushing the envelope so hard that they were done in by a rash of tire failures, Harvick elected to make a green-flag pit stop under green on Lap 215 when he thought he had a tire going down (via Fox Sports). It turned out all four of his tires were fine, but the green-flag stop took him out of contention for the win.
What's Next: The race at Kansas marked the ninth time since Harvick's last win at Darlington in April in which he had led 60 laps or more, yet failed to win. One of those races was the Coca-Cola 600 in May, when he led 100 laps but finished second.
He figures to be strong there again and can't afford to play it conservatively again—not unless he wants to go into Talladega the following week under a whole lot more pressure to advance out of the Contender Round.
3. Brad Keselowski
8 of 10
Previous Ranking: 1
Why He's Here: Yes, we know Brad Keselowski's currently 10th in the Contender Round standings, 39 behind leader and Team Penske teammate Joey Logano and 22 out of the all-important eighth spot. But he was running well at Kansas when he suffered a blown tire and was forced to the garage for repairs—and he still remains tied with Logano for the 2014 series lead in race victories with five.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: He won the Chase opener at Chicagoland and finished second to Gordon in the third Chase race at Dover. So don't ask him about the new format, which relegated those finishes meaningless as soon as all the points were reset for this Contender Round. After finishing 36th at Kansas, he's in trouble and knows it.
What's Next: Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe have been too good all season to panic now. "The good side of it is that you can still win your way out of it and we have two really good tracks for us ahead," Keselowski said (via Fox Sports).
2. Jeff Gordon
9 of 10
Previous Ranking: 5
Why He's Here: Again, yes, we know he's only eighth in the current Contender Round standings after struggling to a 14th-place finish that nonetheless was the best of the four Hendrick Motorsports teams at Kansas. But after winning the final race of the Challenger Round at Dover—his fourth victory of the season— there are many who continue to say the championship will have to run through Gordon.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: Dover was his finest Chase moment to date, obviously, but he's got his work cut out for him to stay within the top eight in this round. He will have to avoid the type of trouble he ran into in Kansas, where he hit the wall after contact with the car driven by Jamie McMurray at one point and his No. 24 Chevrolet team was penalized another time after the crew let a tire get loose on pit road.
What's Next: No one knows better than Gordon that now is when mistakes must be cut to the bare minimum. That didn't happen for him and his team at Kansas. But with the confidence that crew chief Alan Gustafson will put another fast race car underneath him at Charlotte and Talladega—two tracks where he has a combined 11 wins in his career—Gordon is in better shape than his current spot in the standings reflects.
1. Joey Logano
10 of 10
Previous Ranking: 2
Why He's Here: With two wins and two fourth-place finishes, Logano's average finish over the first four Chase races is a remarkable 2.2. His latest win at Kansas guaranteed him a spot in the Eliminator 8 and allows him to play spoiler, if he so chooses, over the next two Contender Round outings at Charlotte and Talladega.
Key 2014 Chase Moments: Logano also won the second race of the Chase at New Hampshire, which was sandwiched between fourth-place efforts in the opener at Chicagoland and in the final race of the Challenger Round at Dover. Overall this season, he's now tied with Team Penske teammate Brad Keselowski for the Sprint Cup Series lead in victories with five.
What's Next: For Logano, it's all about continuing to carry his monster momentum into the Eliminator 8 Round, so don't look for him to let up at all.
In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to see him win one of these next two races, as well as he's running and considering the chemistry and communication he's developed with crew chief Todd Gordon. You can't win a championship by letting off the gas now in the hopes of getting back on it in the next round.
Unless otherwise noted, all information was obtained firsthand.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as covering NASCAR as a writer and editor for FOXSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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