UFC 179 Preliminary Card Predictions
It has seemed like an eternity, but the UFC is back after a rare break. The promotion returns to pay-per-view in Brazil with UFC 179, which hosts a title fight and other key bouts.
Headlined by a rematch between Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes, UFC 179 is heavy on Brazilian talent and interesting up-and-comers. It boasts names like Glover Teixeira, Phil Davis and Fabio Maldonado, to name a few.
My last round of prelim picks were good to me. We look to keep it that way here, though some of the matchups are tough to call.
Without further ado, here are the prelim predictions for UFC 179.
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Tony Martin vs. Fabricio Camoes
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Kicking things off will be the lightweights, as Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Fabricio Camoes looks to hand Tony Martin his third loss in the UFC, as well as his walking papers.
Camoes, a grappler, has been working hard to tighten up his striking in recent times. This can be seen in his work with Black House, a noted striking camp.
Since his return to the UFC, Camoes has had ups and downs. He re-emerged with the company by choking out Tommy Hayden but has slipped up in his last two bouts against Melvin Guillard and Jim Miller.
He takes on a big, physical lightweight in Martin with good all-around ability. However, he has shown a shallow gas tank, which may have led to a downfall in his two UFC bouts.
Both bouts against Rashid Magomedov and Beneil Dariush saw Martin start off hot and fade late. Against Dariush, he succumbed to a submission, something that Camoes is very good at.
Expect Martin to start off aggressive and strong but eventually fade down the stretch. Camoes is a savvy vet who will use experience to weather the storm and succeed in the end.
Prediction: Camoes def. Martin via decision
Gilbert Burns vs. Christos Giagos
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Moving on, we stay in the lightweight division, as Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Gilbert Burns looks to stay unbeaten against debuting RFA champion Christos Giagos.
Burns is a Blackzilians member who has become a complete mixed martial artist. Though his ground game is his specialty, he has shown he can be successful on the feet as well.
His UFC debut saw him defeat Andreas Stahl, using his all-around superiority to take out the Swede. However, despite his ability to stand and bang, he should not over-rely on that skill, as his ground game is ferocious.
Giagos makes his UFC debut here, as the lightweight is thriving on a current four-fight win streak. In that time, the striker has defeated The Ultimate Fighter vets Sevak Magakian and Dakota Cochrane.
The Cochrane win was especially impressive. Giagos toasted the well-regarded fighter with a hellish flying knee and violently followed up to earn the stoppage.
The big difference in skills will be on the ground. Giagos has been submitted in both losses, and Burns is a wizard on the mat. That should be the deciding factor in this bout.
Prediction: Burns def. Giagos via submission
Felipe Arantes vs. Andre Fili
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Moving on, we head to the featherweight division, as Team Alpha Male rep Andre Fili looks to rebound from a recent loss by facing underrated Brazilian Felipe Arantes.
Fili is an all-around fighter who has a good ground game to go with his tight striking. He is looking to get back into the win column after his nine-fight win streak was broken last time out by Max Holloway.
Prior to that loss, fans were introduced to a top prospect with an exciting style. This was seen in his bout with Jeremy Larsen, where Fili tagged and bagged the veteran with precise, powerful striking.
Arantes is a striker who has failed to put together consecutive victories in the Octagon. In fact, the Brazilian is 3-2-1 since making the move to the UFC.
Despite hiccups against Iuri Alcantara (on late notice) and Kevin Souza, Arantes has looked very strong in all of his fights. His wins over Maximo Blanco, Antonio Carvalho and Godofredo Pepey all saw him use a mix of striking and ground skill to overwhelm the opposition.
This should be a great matchup. Both guys have a knack for competing in exciting bouts. However, Fili is superior with his wrestling and may be tougher on the feet, which could be the difference here.
Prediction: Fili def. Arantes via decision
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Scott Jorgensen vs. Wilson Reis
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Next up are the flyweights, as Scott Jorgensen looks to build on his most recent fight against surging Brazilian Wilson Reis.
Jorgensen found himself on the chopping block last fight against Danny Martinez, but he came through with a unanimous-decision victory that put him back in a positive light. That reversed a rough streak that saw him go 1-5 in his previous six fights.
He has good wrestling and an aggressive striking style. In fact, it's his striking that will likely be his advantage in this bout.
As for Reis, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has been on a tear since leaving Bellator. In fact, he has only lost one bout, which came on short notice at 135 pounds.
Reis owns UFC victories over Ivan Menjivar and Joby Sanchez; both were gritty performances that showed his toughness. Though he will be at a wrestling disadvantage, he needs to try and get the fight to the mat.
This is a tailor-made matchup for Jorgensen, who has the ability to stay off his back and outstrike the Brazilian. That will happen, making it two in a row for the former WEC title challenger.
Prediction: Jorgensen def. Reis via decision
Yan Cabral vs. Naoyuki Kotani
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Moving forward, we head to the lightweight division, as Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Yan Cabral drops from 170 to take on Japanese UFC vet Naoyuki Kotani.
Cabral is a submission grappler that has seen his up and down in the UFC already. He defeated David Mitchell in his debut via decision, but was then outpointed by Zak Cummings in his sophomore outing after getting outwrestled.
As for Kotani, this is his second stint with the UFC, and it hasn't gone to plan thus far. The Japanese grappler fell to Norman Parke in his return, a bout that saw him get pretty much dominated.
Both men are ground workers. However, Cabral is far more technical and submission savvy. That will earn him a win here.
Prediction: Cabral def. Kotani via decision
William Macario vs. Neil Magny
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Capping off the prelims are two surging welterweights, as Neil Magny looks to extend his winning streak against William Macario.
Magny is a grinder and gritty vet who has seen a near unemployment scenario turn into four-fight surge. In that time, he has earned wins over Gasan Umalatov, Tim Means, Rodrigo Goiana and Alex Garcia.
He takes on Macario, who has really become a dark horse at 170. After losing out on the second Brazilian season of TUF, Patolino used his quick, powerful striking to outpoint Strikeforce vet Bobby Voelker in an old-school butt kicking.
This should be an interesting matchup. Both guys can strike, but Magny can also grind out a win with clinch work and takedowns. Either way, the American should thrive in a close bout.
Prediction: Magny def. Macario via decision
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