5 Reasons Not to Take Adrian Peterson No. 1

The overall consensus around the fantasy football world is that the first name uttered on draft day should be that of Minnesota Vikings’ running back, Adrian Peterson. In fact, I don’t know if I’ve seen this many people agree on something since the “one urinal of space between men” rule. Thus, it seems the perfect time to play a little devil’s advocate.

 

1. No. 3 in 2008

It does seem a bit strange that Peterson appears to be a unanimous choice for that first overall pick, despite the fact that he finished third in fantasy points among running backs last season. I mean, you’d at least think that Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams would be in the debate, as Williams outscored Peterson by 39 points and Turner by 32. Heck, why aren’t we talking about Matt Forte as the No. 1 selection? After all, the rookie finished just eight points behind Peterson in 2008 and now has a quarterback in Jay Cutler that should help keep defenses a bit more honest.

 

2. 363 Carries

One of the main arguments to passing on Turner with the No. 1 pick is that the Falcons’ back carried the ball 377 times during the regular season, yet no one seems to be concerned about Peterson’s 363 rushes in 2008. I know there have been studies that have shown that few backs do well following a season in which they’ve rushed the ball 370+ times, but really, did the Vikings save Peterson’s 2009 season by not giving him seven more carries? And, if that’s the case, where do the 20 carries he got in the playoffs factor in? Do those not count? All I’m saying is that if Turner’s durability is going to be questioned because of his 2008 workload, then Peterson’s needs to be to, especially because Peterson had 167 more carries than Turner in 2007.

 

3. Birk bolted for Baltimore

So, the Vikings have faith in center John Sullivan. That’s great; however, it doesn’t negate the fact that they just let a six-time Pro-Bowler go to replace him with a sixth-round pick. Birk’s departure this offseason is something that’s being overlooked, but it could play a large role in Peterson falling short of the expectations that come with being the No. 1 pick.

 

4. All Day is All Legs

One of the things that made LT such a fantasy stud was his ability to get points both on the ground and through the air. Peterson, though, is a bit more one-dimensional as the back has just 40 receptions in his two years in the league. Granted, defenses have yet to figure out a way to stop that one-dimension, but it is at least worth thinking about.

 

5. The Favre Factor

While he refuses to announce his return, everyone and their mothers expect Brett Favre to be wearing the purple and gold of the Vikings next season. Everyone is also assuming the move should help Peterson as teams are more likely to respect the Vikings’ passing game with Favre, rather than Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels, under center.

But, the addition could also have a negative impact on the Vikings’ stud running back. Yes, Favre will be more of a game manager than game changer, but with the future Hall of Famer taking snaps, the Vikings may be tempted to air things out a bit more than they have in Peterson’s first two years. Add to that the fact that Favre turns the ball over quite a bit (22 INTs in 2008), and Favre’s arrival could lead to fewer opportunities in the long run for Peterson.

 

Wait, did I just talk myself out of taking Peterson if I’m so lucky as to secure the first pick of any of my league’s drafts? The answer is no.

Yes, the choice isn’t so cut and dry as many would like to make it, but if given the opportunity I’m going with “All Day,” well, all day. Sure, he has question marks, but what running back in the NFL doesn’t?

For more fantasy football insight and advice, click the link below...

Bruno Boys Fantasy Football