NFL Rookie Head Coaches: Making the Grade in 2009?

Last season saw the success of two franchises that had struggled in 2007, the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams ended their the 2008 seasons with an 11-5 record and came in second in their respective divisions.

Both teams earned a berth to the playoffs.

Both teams were also led by rookie head coaches.

Now in their second years, Falcons' head coach Mike Smith and Ravens' head coach John Harbaugh are headed in the right direction, and both can easily follow up last year’s success with yet another run at the postseason.

This season, many owners and general managers have taken a liking to the idea of fresh minds in the locker room—young blood motivating young blood.

Let’s take a look into all the new first-time head coaches that are being handed the reins of their respective teams and see how each hope to fare.

Just for the sake of discussion, I will be mentioning each coach’s win-loss average between their former team and their new team. The new coaches were all coordinators and played a heavy hand in the records of their team.

In the simplest of worlds, it would be apparent that the former team’s win-loss record combined with the win-loss record of the coach’s new team would indicate how successful the new team would be.

Since it’s obviously not so simple, I will follow each commentary with my prediction on how each coach will perform.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts.

Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis Colts)

As Caldwell’s team was the Colts last year, I am skipping the averages for him.

Caldwell has the enviable task of taking over a high-octane defense predicated on speed.

Oh, and he gets Peyton Manning. How could I almost forget?

After a shaky start to the 2008 season left the Colts with more questions than answers, Manning helped the team rise from the ashes to go on a nine-game winning streak and post a 12-4 record.

But how will the team respond now that holy man Tony Dungy has left the office?

Caldwell has been in the team’s coaching system for several years. He’s been the quarterbacks' coach since his arrival in 2002, and was the assistant coach last season. So, there’s not much that he needs to learn in terms of the team and the systems he’ll be running on offense.

One has to wonder though, if the offensive-minded Caldwell will know how to run the Colts' defense. The Tampa-2 scheme isn’t the easiest one to coach, especially to a defense as unique as the Colts, which is almost entirely predicated on speed.

My Prediction: While there may be another shaky start in the future for the Colts, I wouldn’t expect them to flounder any further than they did last year before getting in a rhythm and winning some ball games.

Can they overcome the loss of so many key coordinators, though? The very worst I expect from the Colts this coming season is 10-6. However, their ceiling isn’t as high as usual because of so many key departures, so at best I’d give them 12-4.

Average that out to 11-5, and there’s my prediction.

Todd Haley (Kansas City Chiefs)

From the Parcells coaching tree comes the offensive mastermind behind the Arizona Cardinals’ explosive attack last season.

He definitely got his coaching style from the Big Tuna—Haley’s disciples in Kansas City are already groaning about tough practices. Of course, any practice will seem tough when you’re used to Herm Edwards being the coach of brotherly love.

The Chiefs picked up former lifelong pine-rider Matt Cassel to do the job for them in Kansas City after last season’s impressive showing garnered him a franchise tag from his former team, the New England Patriots.

Although Haley doesn’t have the same plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal as he did in Arizona (and likewise can be said for Cassel and New England). On paper, this seems like a match made in heaven. The two can put their heads together to come up with some original ideas for what has been a lackluster offensive attack for the past few seasons.

As with Caldwell, it remains to be seen whether Haley’s mindset is in the right place to help run the defense. But the exodus of former Arizona coordinators also brought defensive-minded Clancy Pendergast to the fold, so the two are each working with someone they know and trust.

Needless to say, NFL fans will have their eye on the Chiefs this season.

My Prediction: As with any team that’s as abominable as the Chiefs were last season, it’s not always a given that there will be improvements. The performance of Matt Cassel is still a question mark, as he will be without several key weapons.

However, Todd Haley is a good coach with the right work-hard mentality for this team. I could see the Chiefs improving to 6-10 this season, but not too far beyond that. The rebuilding process of this team remains a work in progress.

Rex Ryan (New York Jets)

The former Baltimore Ravens coordinator used a stingy defense to help lead his team to an 11-5 record, and takes the reigns of a 9-7 team to bring his average to 10-6.

This guy’s got “New Yorker” written all over him.

The way he’s been talking, he clearly doesn’t care what other people think about him.

He also has a borderline-cocky confidence in his squad that has already instilled new hope for Jets fans whose trials and tribulations with the ho-hum Eric Mangini got them nowhere.

He’s seemingly reveled in ruffling feathers, but has the squad to back up his talk. Defensive All-Stars like Darrelle Revis, Kris Jenkins, Kerry Rhodes, Bart Scott, and even Vernon Gholston (who has caught flack as a “workout wonder”) all fit the hard-nosed mentality of the man who led one of the AFC North’s top defenses for nearly a decade.

With the Patriots and the ash-arisen Miami Dolphins providing plenty of competition, things won’t be easy for Rex Ryan, but you can guarantee that they’ll be interesting.

My Prediction: Rex Ryan has the right mentality for this team, which has been built to succeed on defense and in the running game. I could easily see the Jets posting a 10-6 record, scoring one more win than last season, and fighting for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs.

Josh McDaniels (Denver Broncos)

McDaniels’ record between his former team, the New England Patriots, and his new team, the Denver Broncos, stands at 10-6.

His past experience may not matter in the least, though. It’s safe to say that McDaniels may not have picked up the coaching prowess from Bill Belichick.

With such a powerful offense last season, it looked as though the cupboards had been left fully stocked with the proverbial “groceries” necessary for an offensive powerhouse.

McDaniels came in, and nearly turned the entire place upside down. Though he left the strongest point of the team—the offensive line—intact, the shipment of Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler didn’t come without its fair share of controversy.

Now, with his “franchise” quarterback in Kyle Orton and a future All-Star in Knowshon Moreno, the Broncos' offense will be under some adjustments, but could still prevail through the eye of the storm.

My Prediction: McDaniels is an offense guy, so it’s not surprising that he didn’t make any drastic changes to a defense that was dismal in every phase of the game last year. I would expect more of the same from the Broncos—a lot of points on both sides of the ball.

I foresee them either holding steady at 8-8, or dropping off slightly to 7-9 this coming year. McDaniels’ offense isn’t easy to grasp, and their defense hasn’t improved at all.

Steve Spagnuolo (St. Louis Rams)

Spagnuolo’s average win-loss record from his former team and his new team is 7-9. An NFC-best 12-4 record for the New York Giants is hampered by the 2-14 record of the second-worst team in the league, the St. Louis Rams.

Spagnuolo is a defensive-minded coach who comes into St. Louis with barely any defensive talent.

They have last year’s first-round pick, defensive end Chris Long. He only racked up four sacks last season, but Spagnuolo has experience in developing his pass rushers—look no further than Osi Umenyiora for a pass rushing product of Spagnuolo.

He also has something he lacked in New York—a consistent over-the-top coverage safety. OJ Atogwe has certainly established himself as a threat in the passing game, as noted in my breakdown of the NFC West’s top defensive players.

The former defensive coordinator brings his 4-3 “fire blitz” package to the Rams, who have been dull on defense to say the least. If Spagnuolo’s blitz packages can put enough pressure on the quarterback, Atogwe could even improve on his performances from the past three seasons.

A frenzy of improvement across the board isn’t out of the question for the Rams. It would be hard to do much worse, right?

My Prediction: Spagnuolo’s presence alone will improve the much-maligned defense, and with his strength on defense, he’ll want to pound the ball on offense. This formula has been the model of success for countless franchises over the years.

I’m going to be very bold here and say that the Rams could surprise people with a 9-7 record. They have scattered talent on offense, and Spagnuolo will know how to maximize his talent on defense.

Regardless of their record, expect a great deal of improvement from the Rams this year.

Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

It’s tough to say that any coach is an improvement over Jon Gruden, whose history for building championship teams is well documented.

Morris’ task is enviable, however, as he is handed quite the talented troop of players. His giant leap through the ranks of the coaching system should serve as a testament to the Glazer’s confidence in him as a leader.

He coached the secondary for two seasons before his promotion. They weren’t that impressive in 2007, collecting only 16 interceptions in a season that the second most interceptions league-wide this decade (534—the most was 538 in 2003). Last season, though, they collected 22 interceptions, good for the fifth ranking in the league in that category.

The Buccaneers drafted quarterback Josh Freeman, marking the first time they’ve drafted a quarterback in the first round since 1994, when they selected Trent Dilfer with the sixth overall pick.

Morris’ defensive mentality will be implemented to Monte Kiffin’s years-old scheme, which has proven successful for the Bucs since its inception. Although I expect to see a bit more of the same, the defense will definitely have Morris’ own personal twist to it, which may or may not be a good thing.

It will be interesting to see how Morris picks up from where Gruden left off, but the pieces are certainly in place for him to be a success.

My Prediction: With this being a huge step up for Morris, and likewise Josh Freeman’s first year, it’s tough to say where the Bucs will land with any sort of certainty, especially considering their December skid last year.

Expect 8-8 from the team that has failed to show much consistency over the past four years.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions)

The Titans’ league-leading 13-3 record was aided by the defensive genius of Schwartz, but the dismal 0-16 record of his new team drags his rounded average down to 7-9.

The sad bit of it is, even if Jim Schwartz leads the Lions to an 8-8 record this coming season, he could be up for Coach of the Year.

And there’s only one direction you can go from the ground—up.

With all that being said, there are just too many factors to Schwartz’s success to weigh them all together. The production he gets from the quarterback will be vital, as always, but the defense will have to ramp things up a bit. Under the tutelage of Schwartz, that seems more likelihood than just a possibility.

The selection of Brandon Pettigrew gives the Lions a tight end who is exceptional both as a pass-catcher and a run-blocker, both of which will be perfect for an offense that plans to be predicated on the run while incumbent franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford gets his legs under him from under center.

Of course, there is the looming presence of Megatron—Calvin Johnson, whose statistical production failed to decline at all last season, despite three different starting quarterbacks over the course of the season.

The presence of Johnson could put a damper on my “run-first” theory, but that may not be such a bad thing for Detroit, whose success on offense was largely predicated on the production of Johnson last season.

But this man is all about the defense, and he could maximize the Lions who are already built on a 4-3 scheme, which is what he built in Tennessee.

Dewayne White was the only excelling player on the defensive line last season. Cory Redding is capable of production, but simply failed to do anything.

The linebackers he has, which are extremely important in a 4-3 defense, all look to be efficient in all phases of the game. With returning youngster Ernie Sims, and the additions of veterans Julian Peterson (OLB, Seattle Seahawks) and Larry Foote (MLB, Pittsburgh Steelers) figure to pose a threat all season long if they can avoid injuries.

My Prediction: Although the Lions have floundered in futility for years on end, the Millen era is gone, and the Schwartz era has been ushered in. With that comes a fresh mentality of hard-nosed defense.

The Lions will improve this season (thank you, Captain Obvious) and should end up with a 6-10 record at the very least. A lot of their losses last season were by seven points or less, and I would not be surprised to see them break even at 8-8,

But, hey, if the 1-15 Dolphins can improve to 11-5 in just one season, nothing’s impossible.