Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts have gotten back on track to even their record following an 0-2 start and will host a Baltimore Ravens team on Sunday that they have dominated over the years. The Colts have gone 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings with the Ravens, who are also just 3-9 vs. the line in their past 12 visits to AFC South teams.

Point spread: Colts opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.9-24.0 Colts

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore has won three straight games since suffering a 23-16 home loss to the unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals in the season opener. While one of those wins was a two-point road victory against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, the other two over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers were decided by a combined 48 points and covered the spread easily.

The Ravens also won the last meeting between the teams 24-9 in the playoffs two years ago en route to winning the Super Bowl. In that game, they held Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck in check to end an eight-game skid ATS in the series that included seven straight-up wins by the Colts.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy has not held back in beating its last two opponents, which just so happen to be within the same division. The Colts outscored the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans 85-34 and have also gone 5-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites, the exception being a 30-27 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.

Luck leads the NFL in passing yards (1,305) and touchdowns (13) and could make a serious run at league MVP if he continues to play at this level and his team ends up winning the division for the second year in a row. Playing at home will be the difference for Indianapolis.

Smart Pick

The Colts got off to a rough 0-2 start this year, but they also played two tough opponents in the Denver Broncos and Eagles, who have lost just two games between them so far. Now that they have turned their season around, they will get a good test here against another quality opponent.

Indy is 6-2 ATS in its past eight home games against AFC North opponents and will remember that playoff loss at Baltimore. Luck has matured to become one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and will outplay former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco in a game the Colts win by at least a touchdown.

Trends

• Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games when playing Indianapolis
• Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last six games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.