Stanford Cardinal vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds: Analysis and Prediction

Notre Dame is only 1-3 against the spread in its last four games against the Pac-12 and 1-3 ATS in its last four contests against Stanford. The 4-0 Irish, rolling once again with Everett Golson back at quarterback, will try to reverse those trends when they host the Cardinal Saturday afternoon in South Bend.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em at Notre Dame Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 32.1-22.1 Cardinal

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

The Cardinal are 3-1 and coming off a tough 20-13 road victory over conference rival Washington, although they couldn't quite cover the spread at -8. Stanford rushed for 186 yards, held the Huskies to 179 total yards and won the time-of-possession battle by a 32-28 margin. But the Cardinal gave up a Washington defensive score, which cost them the cover.

The Cardinal's only loss so far came three weeks ago against USC, a 13-10 decision in which they outgained the Trojans 413-291 but had what might have been the game-winning touchdown nullified by a questionable chop-block penalty.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish are off to a 4-0 straight up, 3-1 ATS start following a 31-15 victory at Syracuse last week in which Golson at one point completed 25 passes in a row. Notre Dame is now 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in games Golson has started. The Irish racked up more than 500 yards of offense against the Orange but committed five turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

If not for those turnovers, Notre Dame would have won that game much more comfortably. As it was, the Irish still covered the spread at -10. Golson owns an 11-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season and is one of four Notre Dame backs with at least 100 rushing yards already.

Smart Pick

Stanford leads the nation in total defense, allowing just 198 yards per game, and in scoring defense, pitching two shutouts already, giving up just two offensive touchdowns. But Notre Dame seems to have rediscovered a little of the mojo that got it to the national championship game two seasons ago. So in what should be another good, tough, perhaps sloppy affair, the pick here goes with the Golden Domers.

Trends

• The total has gone under in four of Stanford's last five games when playing Notre Dame.
• Notre Dame is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Stanford.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds-tracker app.