Five Key Games to Watch for Michigan in 2009

Now, we all know that every game is important in college football, regardless of who the team is playing. But every year, there are five key games that can be the deciding factor on how a team does over the course of the season.

Here are five key games that will impact Michigan this year.

Key Game No. 1: Sept. 13 vs. Notre Dame

This game could very well decide how Michigan's season goes.

If it's a win, then Michigan is in good shape. If it's a loss, them, well, let's not go there.

Last season, the Wolverines turned the ball over a season-high six times, and ND won 35-17. Jimmy Clausen had an OK day, as he was 10-for-21 for 147 yards, two touchdowns and two picks.

Overall, Notre Dame had 260 yards of offense against Michigan's 388. The Wolverines could have very well won this game but it was the turnovers—let me repeat myself, turnovers—that hurt Michigan.

Looking forward to this year, ND has virtually everyone back on offense, including Clausen, who should be a lot better than in years past.

Michigan has 10 starters returning, including all of the offensive lineman and running back Brandon Minor.

Although Michigan will have a freshmen at quarterback in Tate Forcier, he should do just fine because he has a talented group of receivers to throw to, including Greg Mathews and Martavious Odoms.

I expect that this will be a close game. In the end, playing in front of the home crowd will be the difference, and Michigan will win a close one 28-24 over ND.

Key Game No. 2: Oct. 11 vs. Iowa

This is a potential trap game for Michigan, as the Wolverines will be playing on the road at night in a very hostile environment.

Michigan hasn't played the Hawkeyes since 2006, when it won a close game 20-6. Now, I know the score isn't close, but Michigan didn't get moving until the fourth quarter.

If there's one thing Iowa is known for, it is good defense, as the Hawkeyes ranked in the top 10 nationally in run defense and fewest touchdowns allowed. Last season, the Hawkeyes also outscored there opponent 394-169.

Iowa also outgained its opponents 4,815 to 3,787 in terms of yards. Iowa lost its stud running back from last year, but quarterback Ricky Stanzi returns and is expected to carry a bigger load than last year.

For Michigan, this will be a tough game because it will be on the road against a good Iowa defense. Also, this will be Forcier's second start on the road.

I expect Michigan to struggle and fall to the Hawkeyes 38-17

Key Game No. 3: Oct. 24 vs. Penn State

Last season, Michigan led Penn State 17-10 at halftime, only to give up 38 unanswered points and lose 48-17.

Penn State had 482 yards of offense, and quarterback Daryll Clark went 18-for-31 with 171 yards and a touchdown. Running back Evan Royster also had 176 yards and two touchdowns.

Minor had a breakout first half for Michigan, finishing with 125 yards and two touchdowns.

Penn State returns Clark and Royster this year, and I expect them to put up some big numbers in this matchup.

Michigan will have Forcier, who should be well-adjusted to the offense, and Minor should provide some stability to take some of the pressure off of the true freshmen.

This will be like the Notre Dame game, as it will be close. But again, with the crowd in its favor at home, I have Michigan winning 28-21 over PSU.

Note: Michigan has won the last nine of the last 10 over Penn State

Key Game No. 4: Oct. 31 vs. Illinois

Last season, Illinois led 17-14 at the half, and Michigan had a good first half on offense.

But, eventually, the Illinois offense was too much for the Michigan defense.

Illinois won 45-20, led by Juice Williams' 446 total yards (310 pass, 136 rush). Arrelious Benn also had 147 total yards.

This season, Illinois returns Williams, Benn, and running back Danial Dufrane. Those three guys should put up big numbers in this game.

Minor had only 14 rushing yards in last year's contest, but I expect him to have a breakout game.

I believe that the Illinois' combination of Williamsn, Benn, and Dufrane will be too much for Michigan. Michigan will score points, don't get me wrong, but Illinois will win 42-24.

Key Game No. 5: Nov. 21 vs. Ohio State

The Buckeyes will come in to Ann Arbor having won the last five meetings, including the last two in The Big House.

Last year was a disaster for Michigan, as Ohio State destroyed the Wolverines 42-7. Ohio State had 416 total yards, including 232 of that on the ground.

This year, Michigan will once again be looking for revenge, and I believe they will succeed.

Terrelle Pryor will be back for Ohio State, along with running back Dan Herron. The great news is that there will be no Beanie Wells, as he completely destroyed Michigan's defense up the middle the past three seasons.

Overall, everything points to Ohio State. But I believe, in this crucial game, that Michigan will beat OSU for the first time since 2003 by a final score of 30-21.

Imagine how the fans and the team will feel to finally beat OSU.