Jhonny Gonzalez vs. Jorge Arce: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
Two of the fiercest Mexican ring warriors of this generation face off Saturday night in Los Mochis, Sinaloa, when WBC featherweight champion Jhonny Gonzalez defends against former four-division world champion Jorge Arce.
Both of these two men are probably past their prime, but their skill and pride could make this one a potential Fight of the Year regardless.
This one will have limited broadcast in the United States, which is a lamentable shame.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Jhonny Gonzalez | Jorge Arce |
| Record: | 56-8, 47 KOs | 64-7-2, 49 KOs |
| Height: | 5'6.5" | 5'4.5" |
| Reach: | 69" | 66" |
| Weight: | 126 lbs | 126 lbs |
| Age: | 33 | 35 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Mexico City, Distrito Federal | Los Mochis, Sinaloa |
| Rounds: | 313 | 426 |
Between the two of them, Jhonny Gonzalez and Jorge Arce have 137 fights, 96 KOs and close to 750 professional rounds in the ring. These are two of the most experienced and hardest-hitting lower-weight fighters on the planet.
Gonzalez is the bigger man, though. He's got a two-inch height advantage and a three-inch edge when it comes to reach. He's fought the best years of his career at 126 pounds, while Arce started out as a world champion all the way down at 108.
Main Storylines
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I have started to call 2014 "The Year of the Mismatch," and despite the big-name recognition of both fighters in this bout, Jhonny Gonzalez vs. Jorge Arce has the potential to be another one of those fights that fits the pattern.
Jorge Arce is one of the most decorated active boxers in the sport. He's held world titles at light flyweight, super flyweight, bantamweight and super bantamweight, making him one of just three Mexican boxers to hold world titles in four divisions. He was also an interim champion at flyweight.
But Arce has looked increasingly vulnerable as he has aged and climbed weight classes. He was pounded by Nonito Donaire at 122 pounds in December 2012 and officially retired following that bout.
Like so many great champions, he couldn't stay away for long. He's returned to record three stoppages of lower-level opponents.
At 33, champion Jhonny Gonzalez has probably seen his best days at well. But as he proved when winning the belt against Abner Mares, Gonzalez remains a crafty and dangerous puncher. His left hook is a brutal punch.
In most cases I would criticize this fight as poor matchmaking, but Arce's resume earns him a pass other fighters don't deserve. He's a legend, and if he wants to take one last crack at being the first Mexican to win titles in five divisions, there will be no shortage of fans willing to pay to watch.
This one is happening in Arce's hometown of Los Mochis. If nothing else, it will be a fitting setting for this longtime gunslinger's last hurrah.
For Gonzalez, it is a chance for a relatively safe and substantial payday before he risks the belt against some of the division's more dangerous stalking horses.
Strengths
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Jhonny Gonzalez is a power-punching featherweight. His left hook is a fight-ending shot when it lands solid, as he demonstrated against Abner Mares. Gonzalez has fought a long time at the world-class level and is a savvy tactician.
At the same time, he's got the heart and durability to go to war.
Jorge Arce is a dogged and relentless fighter. He is very good at setting and controlling tempo and fearless in the pocket. He's a strong combination puncher with good head movement.
He's been a world-championship-level fighter for over a decade, and on Saturday he'll be facing probably his last big break in front of his hometown crowd. It should give him a valuable emotional boost.
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Weaknesses
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Jhonny Gonzalez is a hittable fighter. He's been in some rugged fights over the year and has a lot of miles on his 33-year-old tires. Gonzalez has a questionable chin for an aggressive fighter.
Jorge Arce saw his best days between 108 and 115 pounds. He's a small featherweight, with most of his added size in the upper body instead of the crucial quads and hamstrings.
Arce is a shopworn 35 who fights with an aggressive style, facing a bigger champion who has knockout power. That's a dangerous combination of factors.
Jhonny Gonzalez Will Win If...
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Jhonny Gonzalez has the same height and reach advantage in this fight that he had against Abner Mares, when he won the WBC title last year. In that victory, he was able to exploit his reach, keep Mares on the outside and catch him with a huge left hook.
He should look to do more of the same against Jorge Arce on Saturday. I think he needs to be even more active with his jab than he was against Mares, though. He needs to employ a stiff, piston-like jab to slow down Arce's attempts to work his way inside.
Arce will be likely to lunge and leap forward, leading with his head. Gonzalez has a history of bad cuts and needs to watch out for the accidental clash that could cause problems for him.
Again, that comes down to maintaining his range and punishing Arce when he moves aggressively. Gonzalez should jab to control distance and then drop the hammer with his straight right and left hook.
Jorge Arce Will Win If...
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Against Nonito Donaire in 2012, Jorge Arce looked like he was banking everything on landing the big punch. The result was a sloppy, lunging effort that saw him get battered and ultimately stopped in three rounds.
I'd like to see Arce show a bit more restraint against Jhonny Gonzalez this weekend. He's got to get inside, but he should do it behind some head movement and a double and triple jab. He should make very limited and selective use of his leaping hook and overhand right.
Still, ultimately he needs to be ready to sellout and go for the big punch at some point. This fight is a risk for a guy like Arce, and he's not winning it without taking more risks. He just has to be smart about when to gamble.
Gonzalez is probably an easier opponent for him to do this against than Donaire, who is a dangerous counterpuncher.
Prediction
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Jorge Arce looked like a completely different fighter against Nonito Donaire in 2012 than he was in his glory days at 118 pounds and below. At one time, he was a quick, crisp offensive fighter.
But he seems slower since moving up and without the same dangerous power.
I thought it was a smart move for him to retire after losing to Donaire, and I don't think he has a great chance against Jhonny Gonzalez here. Gonzalez is a big puncher, and Arce is not a terribly hard guy to hit.
I expect an all-out war for the first three to four rounds. But Arce won't be able to hurt Gonzalez the way the champion will hurt him.
By Round 5 it might turn ugly. If Arce escapes the middle rounds I'd be surprised. Gonzalez will retain the title by stoppage.
I'm not convinced Gonzalez is one of the very best at 126, and there are a number of good young fighters I'd like to see him face. A unification fight with IBF champion Evgeny Gradovich would be meaningful, as would fights with WBO champ Vasyl Lomachenko or the winner of Nonito Donaire vs. Nicholas Waters.
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