Mixed Outlook for Andy Murray After Shenzhen Title Win

It’s certainly been a gruelling 15 months for Andy Murray since he was on top of the world at Wimbledon in 2013.

After back surgery cut last season short, he has struggled immensely—both mentally and physically—to get anywhere near the kind of tennis he was producing to win his second Grand Slam title at SW19. Winning his first title since then in the ATP 250 event in Shenzhen will be a huge relief for the Scot, but his performances throughout the week do not leave much room for positivity, as he heads into more important tournaments in Beijing and Shanghai.

The Shenzhen final itself was simply remarkable. It was a perfect example of why we both love and hate watching Andy Murray play.

He made a horrific start, whipping up two double faults and two errors in the opening game to hand No. 4 seed Tommy Robredo the early break. After getting back on level terms, he was then crucially broken at 5-5 by the Spaniard, who subsequently took the opening set.

The second was just as inconsistent, and it eventually went into a tiebreak, where the two-time major winner was down 6-2, for four match points for Robredo. The words “minor miracle needed” were surely on the lips of many watching.

Stunningly, though, Murray showed why he’s a champion. Gone was the complete inconsistency in groundstrokes and the plethora of needless errors. He was now thinking clearly and, as the Briton said after the match, just “tried to get as many balls back in play as [he] could.” He saved all four match points and then a fifth at 7-6.

Murray eventually took the tiebreak 11-9 to force a deciding set, and by then the legs of the world No. 21 Robredo were gone. The Scot ran out a 6-1 winner in the third and was very emotional as he claimed the title.

The ups and downs of the final were typical of Murray’s 2014 season. One game he’d be crunching returns and playing with authority on the court. The next, it was a host of poor errors and uncertainty from both forehand and backhand swings.

This was a tournament that, looking at the draw beforehand and then with top seed David Ferrer losing in the second round, Murray should have won with ease. In reality, it was a monumental struggle to get over the line.

The semi-final against world No. 85 (as of 29 September) Juan Monaco was another roller-coaster performance. After trailing 2-6 3-3, he finally notched up a few gears and won nine straight games to claim the match. Against better-ranked players, that slow start would have killed him. He cannot afford to begin matches in that way over the next couple of weeks if he wants to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals in London, as his competition for the O2 Arena will be extremely motivated to make sure he doesn’t usurp them for a place.

His serving was average all week long, with only occasional bursts of powerful first serves. According to ATP.com, in the last four against Monaco, Murray only won 61 per cent of his first-serve points. That’s a long way below his 2014 average of 73 per cent. His first-serve percentage was below 60 in all four matches too.

The major positive for Murray, though, is that he has finally found a way to win a title, despite not playing anywhere close to his best tennis. These were very difficult, warm conditions in China’s Guangdong Province, and sweat was certainly pouring off the Scot’s body throughout the tournament. Despite saying to ATP.com “I’m enjoying myself here [in Shenzhen],” it actually seemed that, at times, he’d rather be anywhere else than playing on the court, as he looked unhappy and uncomfortable out there against players nowhere near his class.

The vile abuse directed at him by a bunch of bandwagon-joining non-tennis “fans” after a tweet supporting Scottish independence wouldn’t have helped his mood either though.

However, as Murray commented after reaching the final, “winning always helps.” Getting his hands on a trophy and rediscovering that winning feeling will give the British No. 1 some confidence for two more weeks of crucial competition in China.

How are his chances looking then to get back to the World Tour Finals? Well, those 250 points in Shenzhen have narrowed the gap on Tomas Berdych, who is currently at No. 8 in the Race to London. The gap is only 105 points now between the Czech and the No. 10 Briton, with 500 on offer to champions this week in Beijing and Tokyo.

Also, Murray’s London rival David Ferrer has fallen at the first hurdle of a second consecutive tournament, losing to compatriot Marcel Granollers in the Japanese capital. So, the door to the O2 Arena is well and truly open for Andy Murray, if he picks up decent points in the next two tournaments.

He’ll need to recover quickly from a sweaty and testing tournament in Shenzhen, though, where he made very hard work of a relatively straightforward field.

First up in Beijing, around a three-hour flight north of Shenzhen, is 6’8” Jerzy Janowicz, in a rematch of their Wimbledon 2013 semi-final. It’s been a disappointing year for the Pole, not managing to push on from that last-four appearance at SW19. His ranking has dropped from a year-ending No. 21 to No. 36, as of 29 September. He was actually outside the top 50, too, earlier this year.

World No. 35 Pablo Cuevas or qualifier Mikhail Kukushkin would await in the second round. Then, match difficulty would increase with Murray in U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic’s quarter and top seed Novak Djokovic’s half. Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych are the highest seeds in the opposite half of the draw.

Barring his battling qualities, pretty much all parts of Murray’s game need to be better in Beijing and Shanghai. After a trying season, where not much has worked out for him, he will surely be gunning to make the end of 2014 somewhat of a success by being in the top eight and playing in front of his home London crowd at the World Tour Finals.