Vanes Martirosyan vs. Willie Nelson: Preview and Prediction for Upcoming Bout
Vanes “Nightmare” Martirosyan returns to action on Saturday night at Foxwoods in Connecticut, taking on dangerous junior middleweight prospect Willie Nelson.
Martirosyan has only fought once since dropping a decision in his lone world-title challenge against Demetrius Andrade late last year. He’s a former U.S. Olympian with an awkward, sometimes ugly style, and he took a shutout decision over a low-level fighter in his last fight.
Nelson is or was considered a prospect—depending on who you ask—who has struggled to move his career past fringe-contender status through a combination of injuries and bad luck. The Cleveland native is tall and rangy, but he hasn’t been able to attract enough attention or interest to secure higher-profile fights.
This is a true crossroads battle between one fighter trying to regain and another trying to ascend to contender status. You can expect a spirited affair, and this is your complete preview and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
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| Vanes Martirosyan | Willie Nelson | |
| Record | 34-1-1, 21 KO | 23-1-1, 13 KO |
| Age | 28 | 27 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'3" |
| Weight | 154 (last fight) | 154.75 (last fight) |
| Reach | 73" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown | Abovyan, Armenia | Cleveland, Ohio |
| Rounds | 182 | 109 |
| Last Fight | UD 10 Mario Alberto Lozano (3/21/14) | UD 10 Luis Grajeda (8/8/14) |
All stats and information per BoxRec.com.
Main Storylines
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Martirosyan isn’t going to be winning any awards for excitement in the ring based on his last few performances.
He challenged for a world championship last year, dropping an absolute stinker to Andrade in a fight where he didn’t really manage to cobble together much offense. One of the official judges somehow managed to score the fight for him, but that doesn’t reflect the one-sided nature of the contest.
As he showed in a competitive technical draw against Erislandy Lara, Martirosyan can be a tricky, tough out for anyone when he’s able to fight his fight. A loss here would be devastating for him, sending him way back in the crowded junior middleweight pack.
Nelson has fallen off the radar of late after emerging as a pretty talented welterweight prospect. That’s been the result of some bad luck and injuries that have halted his progress.
He was originally scheduled to face veteran contender Matthew Macklin last December in a step-up bout but had to withdraw with a serious injury to his elbow which required surgery.
Nelson also saw a fight with Andy Lee fall through on the Miguel Cotto vs. Sergio Martinez pay-per-view undercard, settling for an untelevised blowout over little-known Darryl Cunningham. This is a big opportunity for him to shine, and he’ll be looking to cash it in.
Strengths
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Martirosyan is a boxer-puncher who is most comfortable with the fight at distance. He has decent hand speed, a solid jab and a highly underrated straight right hand that can end the night if he lands it cleanly.
Nightmare has shown that he can compete with elite fighters, giving Lara a difficult night in a fight that ended prematurely. Granted, there was nothing particularly pretty about that fight, but it showed he has the skills to at least scratch the upper levels.
Martirosyan never punches without moving. He circles in both directions after throwing shots, making it extremely difficult for an opponent to find range, close distance and land back. That, combined with his conditioning, makes him a very tricky fighter to attack.
Nelson is a freakish athlete.
At 6’3” and with an 81” reach, he’s a tall, rangy athlete with a body type that you don’t often see among junior middleweights. That’s possibly a blessing and a curse because Nelson rarely fights like a taller fighter and is most comfortable with the fight on the inside.
Nelson is very quick with his counters and has decent if not spectacular boxing skills and IQ.
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Weaknesses
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Martirosyan is nicknamed Nightmare, and sometimes he fights like one.
He’s been matched in an extremely conservative—protected—manner throughout his career, and his physical tools don’t exactly jump off the page at you. His boxing IQ is solid, yes, but his speed and defense are average.
Martirosyan’s biggest problem is his activity level, which is sometimes nonexistent. He settles into lulls—more than lulls really—where he hardly throws anything at all.
Nelson doesn’t fight like a man with his size.
When you’re a freakishly tall, freakishly long fighter in a neighborhood where those assets are uncommon, you should make the best use of them. Nelson doesn’t do that, often fighting like he’s a small rather than a big fighter.
Nelson’s boxing IQ is one of his biggest problems, and he sometimes doesn't seem to have a good feel for what he’s trying to accomplish in the ring.
Vanes Martirosyan Will Win If...
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Martirosyan needs to do his thing, and by that we mean keep the fight at distance, frustrate Nelson and make it as ugly as possible. That’s how he wins, and he’s not going to change the formula anytime soon.
When you look at a fighter like Nelson, with his physical advantages, you’d think that he would be built for Martirosyan.
That may look like a typo, but it’s not.
Nightmare always seems to do better when fighting against opponents who try to jab with him and walk him down. He’s tremendously skilled at creating awkward angles and using them to blunt his opponent’s offense.
But Nelson fights like a smaller man, and he likes the fight on the inside.
That’s not where Martirosyan wants to be, and so long as he can stay out of there he has an excellent chance at winning a decision by just being the smarter fighter.
Willie Nelson Will Win If...
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Nelson doesn’t fight like a big man, and that could actually prove to be a benefit in this particular fight.
Jabbing doesn’t work wonders against Martirosyan—unless you’re a superbly quick fighter like Andrade—and the way to attack would seem to be pressure. The question is whether Nelson has the skills to cut off the ring and make his foe uncomfortable.
What Nelson needs to do is be smart and adaptable.
He shouldn’t completely eschew his jab and long, straight right hand, using them to get off first and force Martirosyan back before he’s ready.
The Nightmare’s offense doesn’t work nearly as well when he’s not the guy dictating the terms.
Nelson should use those punches to make Martirosyan move back, make him sloppy and then pounce on him.
That’s his best chance of scoring the biggest win of his career.
And the Winner Will Be...
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This is one of those fights that has the potential for ugly written all over it but that you’re going to watch anyway just so you don’t miss out on something spectacular.
Or maybe not.
Martirosyan and Nelson are pretty evenly matched fighters.
Neither man has any glaring advantages—short of Willie’s height and reach which he rarely uses—and this could turn out to be an ugly, tricky fight to score.
Hopefully one guy steps up and just makes a statement, but you’d best not hold your breath waiting for that to happen.
This is a pure gut-instinct pick, but something seems to be lacking in Martirosyan. He just doesn’t have that fire and killer instinct necessary to go out there and take a fight.
Nelson hasn’t had the opportunity in a statement fight yet, but when Vanes had one he blew it without so much effort.
That raises some serious questions about his ability and willingness to get the job done under pressure.
Without anything in the way of serious confidence, Nelson will win this fight by an ugly, hard-to-score decision.
He will do just enough on the outside to keep Martirosyan off balance, and when he does get inside he’ll outwork him.
Prediction: Nelson MD 10 Martirosyan (96-94)
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