Rances Barthelemy vs. Fernando Saucedo: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
Saturday night at the Foxwoods Resort Casino, undefeated IBF super featherweight champion Rances Barthelemy defends his belt against Argentine veteran Fernando Saucedo. The former amateur star from Cuba has flown relatively far under the radar compared to his countrymen like Guillermo Rigondeaux and Erislandy Lara.
But after some memorable moments on ESPN's Friday Night Fights, he's fighting on Showtime this weekend. His challenger is an experienced veteran, facing what could be his last big break.
Super featherweight is a wide-open division. The winner of this fight could line up a high-profile shot for next year.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7| Per Boxrec | Rances Barthelemy | Fernando Saucedo |
| Record: | 20-0, 12 KOs | 52-5-3, 8 KOs |
| Height: | 5'11" | 5'6" |
| Reach: | 73" | Unlisted |
| Weight: | 130 lbs | 130 lbs |
| Age: | 28 | 32 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Miami, Florida | Buenos Aires, Argentina |
| Rounds: | 87 | 373 |
Barthelemy is an extremely long super featherweight. That's a huge advantage in boxing, but it can also make him vulnerable to a stout fighter who can work his way inside.
Saucedo has the lowest KO percentages of any title challenger I can remember seeing. He's fought 60 fights and a ton of rounds but only a few times against high-level competition.
Main Storylines
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The emergence of former Cuban amateur stars into the professional ranks has been one of boxing's biggest stories in the past decade. Barthelemy has been a part of that story, though he hasn't garnered the attention of stars like Yuriorkis Gamboa, Rigondeaux and Lara.
Still, he's an undefeated world champion now and in perfect position to keep building up his name recognition.
Barthelemy has been a mainstay on the last couple seasons of ESPN's Friday Night Fights, and he's been involved in some controversy. His January 2013 unanimous-decision win over Arash Usmanee in Miami was frankly a gift.
In January of this year, he knocked out Argenis Mendez, appearing to capture the IBF super featherweight title. But the fight was later changed to no-contest, due to the final blow landing after the bell.
Barthelemy cruised to a unanimous-decision win in the rematch last July to finally capture the belt.
Saucedo is an extremely experienced veteran, but he's mostly failed when stepping up to world-class competition. Against Acelino Freitas in 2004 and Chris John in 2010, he was completely shut out on the cards.
Strengths
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Barthelemy has the smooth, technical skill one would expect to see in a former member of the Cuban national team. He has outstanding reach for a super featherweight and knows how to use it. He's able to generate dangerous, fight-ending power with his long, angular build.
Saucedo is an experienced, professional fighter with craft. He is good at staying on the outside and countering his opponent's aggression. He throws fluid combinations, attacking the body and shifting quickly upstairs.
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Weaknesses
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Barthelemy is very thin for a 130-pound fighter. Against Usmanee, I think he was flat-out muscled around and bullied and didn't deserve to win. An opponent who can work inside on him is a threat.
Saucedo is good at hanging just out of range, waiting to attack, but against a very long fighter with excellent footwork, like Barthelemy, that is a dangerous strategy. Saucedo tends to paw with his jab and leave himself very open for the counter right hand.
He looked fatigued late against Chris John.
Rances Barthelemy Will Win If...
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This fight should be a perfect opportunity for Barthelemy to shine. He's got a huge length advantage over Saucedo. Saucedo has limited world-class experience and a lack of punching power.
Barthelemy should find range with his jab, driving Saucedo onto his back foot, and then unload with the left hook and overhand right. With his footwork and power, he should be able to maintain range and keep Saucedo from working his way inside.
Barthelemy should be able to unload heavy artillery from a safe distance in this fight. As long as he can keep Saucedo on the outside, he should be able to hurt him badly early on and make this a relatively quick fight.
Fernando Saucedo Will Win If...
6 of 7Saucedo has his work cut out for him. From what I've seen of him, he's most comfortable on the outside, but that should be a recipe for disaster against Barthelemy.
Saucedo needs to work his way inside in this fight and attack Barthelemy's thin torso. To do that, he's going to need to tighten up his jab, pumping it crisply and carefully returning to a good defensive position to avoid a dangerous overhand counter right.
The key to winning this fight for Saucedo is going to be to take a lesson from what Usmanee did to Barthelemy in January 2013. He's got to stay in Barthelemy's face, throwing a ton of punches while making the champion extremely uncomfortable round after round.
This might be a dangerous game plan for a guy who has knocked out just eight opponents in 60 fights, but I don't see any other way for Saucedo to win.
Prediction
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After a lull in action following the Floyd Mayweather-Marcos Maidana pay-per-view earlier this month, boxing junkies will be tuning into Showtime Saturday night to watch Barthelemy headline a premium cable card. It's an important opportunity, and he needs to make the most of it.
I think he'll do just that. Saucedo is a perfectly selected opponent for Barthelemy to shine against. Saucedo is a credible challenger but not a dangerous one.
Barthelemy's length and power will be far too much for the light-hitting Saucedo. I don't think this one will see the start of Round 6.
With some momentum behind him, perhaps Barthelemy will be able to get some big unification fights. I think he'd be a very interesting opponent for either WBO champion Mikey Garcia or WBA champ Takashi Uchiyama. I'd definitely tune in to watch Barthelemy vs. fellow-unbeaten Francisco Vargas.
But first, I think Barthelemy owes Usmanee a rematch. I thought Usmanee deserved the nod over Barthelemy in January 2013, and I know I'm not alone. If the Afghanistan native is interested in dropping back down to 130 for a title shot, he should get it.
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