Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears renew the NFL’s longest rivalry Sunday when the two NFC North foes meet at Soldier Field.

The Bears are coming off consecutive wins and covers on the road in prime time after beating the New York Jets 27-19 on Monday Night Football, but they have struggled recently when they face the Packers, going 1-6 straight up and against the spread in the last seven meetings.

Point spread: The Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line quickly swung to favor the Packers by a point at most sportsbooks tracked by Odds Shark; the total was 49 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 23.7-20.0 Bears

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay has had its way with Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler, who is 1-9 lifetime against the Packers, including the 21-14 loss in the 2011 NFC Championship Game.

Cutler has thrown 18 interceptions for the Bears in those 10 games, including one in the last meeting at Chicago in Week 17 of 2013, which resulted in a 33-28 loss and gave Green Bay the division title.

While Cutler is off to a great start so far this year, he will have a lot to prove against the Packers in this spot as a home underdog. The oddsmakers have made the Bears dogs for a couple reasons, as Green Bay is playing in a desperate situation at 1-2 and has dominated its division rival recently.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago has bounced back nicely from a season-opening 23-20 loss at home in overtime to the Buffalo Bills. The Bears have won two games in a row since then both SU and ATS, and the offense is really rolling, while the defense has played better than last year, when they surrendered a franchise-worst 161.4 yards per game on the ground.

The only real concern in Chicago is injuries to its receiving corps and secondary, which still came through to help the team hold on for a win over the Jets Monday night. The Bears know how big of a game this is for them early in the season, especially since they will not be playing another divisional matchup until after their bye week.

They travel to Green Bay to start a stretch of three of four against NFC North opponents.

Smart pick

Unfortunately for Chicago fans, the numbers don’t lie. The Bears are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, including an 0-4 mark versus divisional foes. Until Cutler proves he can beat the Packers consistently, there is a big reason to doubt his team here.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will also look to take advantage of Chicago’s depleted secondary, just like he did against the Jets in a 31-24 home victory in Week 2. Rodgers has owned the Bears in his career with a 10-3 mark, including the playoff win and last year’s 27-20 home loss, when he got knocked out early with a broken collarbone.

This line is already on the move in favor of the Packers, so bet them as early as possible.

Trends

• The total has gone OVER in four of Green Bay's last five games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in four of Chicago's last six games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.