Fantasy Football Studs, Duds and Sleepers for Week 4

Week 4 of the 2014 fantasy football season presents more questions than answers. Rushing is up, passing is down and big names slipped from starting lineups all over the league. Tony Romo and Philip Rivers’ owners will enjoy a reversal in that trend, while Andrew Luck’s will have to wait until next week.

Late September tends to be a pivotal time for fantasy owners as offenses settle into their schemes and defenses jell. Week 4 reveals whether early observations about teams and players are trends or anomalies.  

The bye-week labyrinth kicks of this week as well. Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, St. Louis and Seattle all take a break this weekend. You’ll want to be sure the following players are—or aren’t—in your lineup as you prepare to weather the shuffle.  

Stud, Dud or Sleeper?

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Just what exactly defines a fantasy stud, dud or sleeper?

A stud is a top-10 (15-20 for running backs and wide receivers), high-end player that is virtually an automatic start from week to week. That being said, some have better matchups than others, and those players earn the spotlight here.

A dud is also a top-10 to 20 starter who would normally merit plug-and-play status except for bad matchups and/or injury concerns.

A sleeper is a player that is started in no greater than 50 percent of ESPN Fantasy leagues with an irresistible matchup.

Tight End Sleeper: Delanie Walker at Indianapolis

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Walker leads the sleeper tight ends because he’s been effective where the rest of the Tennessee Titans offense has struggled.

He is the only Titan highlighted green in Pro Football Focus’ passing category (subscription required), logging a respectable positive-2.0 grade. This shouldn’t be a surprise given Ken Whisenhunt’s track record utilizing TEs successfully like Heath Miller in Pittsburgh and Antonio Gates in San Diego.

The Colts shut out Jacksonville’s tight ends last week, yet still rank fifth in points allowed to the position, according to Fantasy Pros. Most of the damage came in Week 1 when Julius Thomas tasted pay dirt three times, rubbing it in with 104 yards receiving. Indianapolis held Zach Ertz outside the goal line in Week 2, but he still racked up 86 yards.

The only factor obstructing Walker from must-start status in the shoulder injury that finds him listed as questionable, per The Tennessean's John Glennon: 

"

Walker has shoulder injury, per Whiz. He will offer updates this week. Locker has wrist issue, Thompson knee.

— John Glennon (@glennonsports) September 22, 2014 "

Monitor his injury status closely later in the week. If he’s upgraded, Walker should be in your lineup.

Honorable mention: Owen Daniels, Baltimore, vs. Carolina; Garrett Graham, Houston, vs. Buffalo

Tight End Dud: Greg Olsen at Baltimore

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Olsen entered the season as Carolina’s only returning starter in a totally revamped receiving corps.

He’s proved it doesn’t matter who’s throwing him the ball, tallying 224 yards and two touchdowns with Cam Newton and Derek Anderson splitting time behind center.

Unfortunately for Olsen, the Ravens proved it doesn’t matter which tight end they’ve faced so far, holding Jermaine Gresham, Heath Miller and a gimpy Jordan Cameron to a combined seven receptions for 74 yards and zero touchdowns. In fact, Baltimore boasts the second-toughest points against total at 3.0 per game.  

This doesn’t mean Olsen should be benched against Baltimore, it just means expectations ought to be tempered this week.

Dishonorable mention: Jason Witten, Dallas, vs. New Orleans; Martellus Bennett, Chicago, vs. Green Bay

Tight End Stud: Jimmy Graham at Dallas

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Graham’s 5.4-point Week 3 outing against Minnesota disappointed owners who took the elite TE ninth overall, according to Fantasy Pros’ average draft position.

Fear not, for the Dallas Cowboys and their putrid 17.7 points-allowed-per-game average are here to rescue those lofty expectations.

Graham is the lone constant in Sean Payton’s shape-shifting offense, appearing in 86 percent of plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Drew Brees has targeted Graham on 26 percent of his 117 pass attempts, maintaining the All-Pro’s status as his prolific quarterback’s favorite option.

This matchup has the potential to top his 23.8-point season high against Cleveland in Week 2.

Honorable mention:  Rob Gronkowski, New England, at Kansas City; Antonio Gates, San Diego, vs. Jacksonville

Wide Receiver Sleeper: Jeremy Maclin at San Francisco

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Maclin rewarded owners’ faith in his fully-recovered knee with 23 percent of Nick Foles’ targets, per PFF, through three explosive weeks.

Technically he soared over “sleeper” status as of this article’s posting, gracing the starting lineups of 56.6 percent of ESPN.com leagues. That’ll happen when you average 15.9 PPG.

But that’s still not high enough considering the momentum he’s carrying into a matchup against the league’s second-weakest defense in points allowed to WRs.

The 49ers defense carries a stifling reputation it no longer merits thanks to missing starters Glenn Dorsey, NaVorro Bowman, Tramaine Brock and Aldon Smith. San Francisco has already surrendered six WR touchdowns, meaning Maclin’s three-game scoring streak will likely continue.

Honorable mention: Michael Crabtree, San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia; Steve Smith, Baltimore, vs. Carolina

Wide Receiver Dud: Torrey Smith vs. Carolina

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Smith’s dud designation has less to do with this week’s matchup as it does with his diminished role since Steve Smith joined the Ravens.

Torrey Smith has half the targets (16 to 32), two-thirds the receptions (six to 18) and a fraction of the yardage (85 to 290) Steve Smith has logged his first three weeks in Baltimore. Somehow Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith fell out of sync—he’s dropped 25 percent of his targets compared to Steve Smith’s 10 percent drop rate.

Carolina boasts the eighth-strongest WR points-allowed average, surrendering only 18.4 PPG. If any Ravens wideout overcomes the stingy Panthers, it will be the former Panther with an attitude and something to prove.

Steve Smith told WFNZ’s Bustin’ Loose with Frank Garcia and Mark Yarbro (h/t Pro Football Talk’s Josh Alper):

"

I want to make sure that whatever team I go to, they’re going to get the best, in shape 35-year-old guy they can get. If that happens to run through Bank of America Stadium, put your goggles on cause there’s going to be blood and guts everywhere.

"

If either Smith garners Flacco’s attention this week it will be Steve, not Torrey.

Dishonorable mention: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis, vs. Tennessee; Julio Jones, Atlanta, at Minnesota

Wide Receiver Stud: Antonio Brown vs. Tampa Bay

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Brown—currently the league’s No. 2 fantasy WR with 48.6 points—is also its most underrated star. His No. 8 ADP among WRs will look foolish after he abuses the Buccaneers, the league’s worst defense in WR points allowed.

Tampa Bay kept it respectable against Derek Anderson (18.4 WR points) and Austin Davis (18.5 WR points) in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Then Matt Ryan and the Falcons absolutely torched them for 60 WR points without Roddy White.

Half the defenses in the league still haven’t yielded 60 WR points in three games, let alone one.

Tampa does have the luxury of a few extra days to recover from Thursday’s debacle, but Brown already victimized Cleveland and Carolina defenses boasting the 13th and eighth-ranked WR points-allowed averages, respectively.  

The Bucs don’t stand a chance and Brown owners will reap the rewards.

Honorable mention: Calvin Johnson, Detroit, at New York Jets; Dez Bryant, Dallas, vs. New Orleans; Pierre Garçon, Washington, vs. New York Giants

Running Back Sleeper: Donald Brown vs. Jacksonville

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Brown was not supposed to be San Diego’s bell-cow back, as general manager Tom Telesco told Darren Smith of The Mighty 1090 (h/t ESPN’s Eric D. Williams):

"

We know Ryan [Mathews] is our bell cow. He’s our No. 1 back. He had an excellent year last year. And we all know what Danny Woodhead can do in his role. We saw that for 16 games last year. And we think Donald can come in and add to that, too, and give us some different options. And a different style, too. The more weapons we can have for Philip Rivers, the better.

"

Then Mathews sprained his MCL in Week 2 before Woodhead broke his fibula in Week 3. Suddenly Brown is the lead back with the league’s worst defense in running back points allowed on the schedule.

The sixth-year veteran notched 8.9 points against the seventh-ranked Buffalo Bills defense starting in Mathews’ place last week. Rookie Branden Olivier is the only other healthy RB currently on the roster, affirming that Brown figures to shine against the toothless Jaguars.

Honorable mention: Matt Asiata, Minnesota, vs. Atlanta; Lamar Miller, Miami, at Oakland (in London)

Running Back Dud: Rashad Jennings at Washington

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It might be surprising to see Jennings’ name on the dud list considering his dominance against Houston in Week 3—34 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown (23.6 points).

But Washington owns the top spot in RB points allowed, begrudging just 6.2 PPG. Arian Foster ran for 103 on the Redskins in Week 1, but the run defense has stiffened since. LeSean McCoy managed just 22 yards on 19 carries in what turned out to be an aerial showdown between Washington and Philadelphia in Week 3.

Washington didn’t face passing threats from Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively, but Nick Foles and the Eagles put up 325 yards and three touchdowns on them in Week 3.

Tom Coughlin won’t soon forget the myriad of RB injuries the Giants endured in 2013, so expect New York to air it out on Thursday night and keep Jennings fresh for the rest of the season.

Dishonorable mention: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia, at San Francisco; Joique Bell, Detroit, at New York Jets

Running Back Stud: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay

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Forte currently ranks 72nd among all offensive players with 28.1 points. That’s not what owners bargained for when they drafted him fourth overall based on ADP.

Green Bay is the first soft run defense Forte will face this season after struggling against Buffalo, San Francisco and the Jets. The Packers rank fourth in RB points allowed, surrendering 25.5 PPG to Marshawn Lynch, Chris Ivory/Chris Johnson and Reggie Bush/Joique Bell.

Jay Cutler didn’t crack under the pressure of carrying the Bears to a 2-1 start. Marc Trestman would be wise to take the pressure off his franchise QB and fatigued WRs while Forte drives the offense for a change.

Honorable mention: Frank Gore, San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia; C.J. Spiller, Buffalo, at Houston

Quarterback Sleeper: Tony Romo vs. New Orleans

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It might be confusing to see a three-time Pro Bowler listed as a “sleeper,” but Romo’s only starting in 25.6 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues as of this posting.

Owners’ reluctance to start him is justified given his dubious one-touchdown, three-interception performance on opening weekend against San Francisco. But Romo settled in nicely for a mistake-free victory at Tennessee before leading the Cowboys from behind at St. Louis in Week 3.

This week Romo draws the Saints, the league’s seventh-ranked defense in QB points allowed. He has a nagging back injury that kept him out of practice until Thursday of last week, but he didn’t show any signs of discomfort in Sunday’s comeback.

Improving health, performance and favorable competition should make Romo a nice replacement for Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton owners looking for a capable bye-week replacement.

Honorable mention: Kirk Cousins, Washington, vs. New York Giants; Jake Locker, Tennessee, at Indianapolis

Quarterback Dud: Andrew Luck vs. Tennessee

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Luck is currently the top-ranked QB in fantasy, averaging 28.5 PPG.

That’s a nice stat, but it loses some credibility considering Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Denver are the three most generous defenses in QB points allowed.

Indianapolis travels to Tennessee this week facing the second-toughest defense in QB points allowed. The Titans held Alex Smith (11.6), Tony Romo (12.0) and Andy Dalton (14.1) each to their lowest fantasy scoring total of the season. Tennessee’s pass rush currently grades at fourth in the league, according to PFF.

The Colts ground game has totaled 367 yards, good for 14th in the league after three games. But Luck accounted for 54 of those yards.

Pep Hamilton’s offense must diversify the threat against the Titans pass defense if Luck’s hot streak is to continue.

Don’t count on it.

Dishonorable mention: Matt Ryan, Atlanta, at Minnesota; Cam Newton, Carolina, at Baltimore

Quarterback Stud: Philip Rivers vs. Jacksonville

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Rivers ranks fifth in the league with a 108.3 passer rating tallied against traditionally tough defenses in Arizona, Seattle and Buffalo.

Jacksonville has the league’s worst QB points allowed, averaging 23.2 PPG.

That sound you hear is Mike McCoy licking his chops.

Since the Chargers backfield is reduced to an injury-depleted mess, NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal explains Rivers’ new role:

"

San Diego opened the season with some of the best running back depth in the entire league. It only took three weeks for that to change. The Chargers will ultimately rise and fall on Philip Rivers' arm, but the loss of Woodhead makes the offense less dynamic.

"

A more one-dimensional offense might prove challenging in tougher matchups, but Rivers will dictate a winning outcome for fantasy owners against the shell-shocked Jaguars.

Honorable mention: Matthew Stafford, Detroit, at New York Jets; Tom Brady, New England, at Kansas City

Week 4 should go down as a trend definer. Pay close attention and reap the rewards as injuries and byes ravage fantasy lineups.

All points totals and statistics via ESPN standard-scoring leagues.