Sprint Cup Chase 2014: What Drivers on the Bubble Must Do to Avoid Elimination

In its simplest form, the third race of the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup will come down to nine drivers playing musical chairs for just five spots in this Sunday's race at Dover International Speedway.

Sunday's race marks the end of the first round of the four-round Chase, after which four of the original 16 drivers in the Chase field will be eliminated. Four more will be eliminated after three more races and so on until we are left with the final four drivers to battle it out in a winner-takes-all race for the championship in the season finale at Homestead Miami Speedway.

Sunday's race has all the makings of a racing soap opera, with plenty of drama, anticipation, twists, turns—and maybe even a little bit of cutthroat racing.

After all, when you have just 12 points separating nine drivers for five spots, the drivers are going to come out swinging at Dover. They'll take chances they might not normally take and hope that the calculated risks of doing so wind up falling in their favor so that they can advance to the next round next week in Kansas.

Here's how the Chase shapes up points-wise right now:

• 1 Brad Keselowski
• 2 Joey Logano -1
• 3 Kevin Harvick -7
• 4 Jimmie Johnson -17
• 5 Kyle Busch -20
• 5 Dale Earnhardt Jr. -20
• 7 Jeff Gordon -27
• 8 Matt Kenseth -40
• 8 Carl Edwards -40
• 10 AJ Allmendinger -41
• 11 Kasey Kahne -42
• 11 Ryan Newman -42
• 13 Denny Hamlin -48
• 13 Greg Biffle -48
• 15 Kurt Busch -50
• 16 Aric Almirola -52

For the most part, everyone from Keselowski to Gordon is fairly safe of advancing to Round 2. However, nothing can be completely assured.

If Gordon loses another 20 points (or more) in the standings like he did after New Hampshire, his own hopes of completing the Drive For Five (his bid for a fifth career Cup championship) may suddenly be derailed.

But for the sake of argument, everyone from Matt Kenseth, who is tied for eighth with Carl Edwards, through Aric Almirola has a legitimate reason for concern.

Obviously, the last four in the standings—Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle and Almirola—are in the worst positions. But if any of these drivers from Kenseth down has a bad race at Dover, it's likely they will see their season end for all intents and purposes.

How do those nine drivers overcome adversity and potential trouble to assure that they'll advance to Round 2?

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The simple answer is to win Sunday's race, which automatically moves you on.

But as difficult as it has been to win in the first two races of the Chase, which have been claimed by Penske Racing teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, Sunday's race will be all the more so.

Dover International Speedway is the only all-concrete racetrack on the Sprint Cup surface, and funky things have been known to happen there.

Look at this year's spring race at DIS: A piece of that infamous concrete on the backstretch broke apart and penetrated the front end of Jamie McMurray's car.

While that part of the track has been repaired, drivers will also have to worry about other nuances of the track. Frankly, concrete just doesn't drive like asphalt does, and drivers will have to adjust their game plan and how they attack the racetrack accordingly.

Though Team Penske has seemed dominant as of late, finishing strong is not just about having the best car.

Your pit crew must be on the top of its game. Restarts after cautions must be fast and precise. And of course, staying out of trouble will also be key at Dover.

Last week at New Hampshire, eight of the 16 Chase drivers were involved in a caution-flag incident, including Jeff Gordon, whose disappointing 26th-place finish due to a tire issue that sent him crashing into the wall with 10 laps to go, means he will essentially have to start from scratch Sunday.

Gordon, who has four wins, 17 top-five and 24 top-10 finishes in 43 career starts at Dover, fell from second in the standings to seventh after Loudon. 

Ten laps. Five spots in the Chase standings. That's how tight this Chase is. And what happened to Gordon could happen to any driver at any time.

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Despite the tough racing that is sure to happen with so few guaranteed spots available, an argument  can be made that for many of the nine drivers who are already on the Chase elimination bubble, advancement will most easily come if they forget about winning and focus on securing a strong finish, perhaps a top-five or at the very least a top-10.

But with a mere 12 points separating those nine drivers, even a top-10 might not be enough to assure their move to Round 2. After all, they don't call Dover the "Monster Mile" for nothing.

So, essentially, for the nine drivers on the bubble, Sunday's race will come down to one thing: If they can't win, anything less than a top-five finish is walking the thin line between going hard and going home.

And from that point, they can only hope and pray that when the checkered flag falls at Dover, they'll have done just enough to move on.

Put yourself in their collective place: Would you want to go down in history as being the first four drivers to be eliminated in the first year of the new Chase format?

I didn't think so.

All statistics noted in this article came from NASCAR statisticians.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski