Canelo Alvarez's Return to HBO Spells Trouble for Showtime

Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is returning to HBO on a multi-fight deal announced by Golden Boy Promotions on Tuesday.

Dan Rafael of ESPN.com broke the news earlier in the day:

The official announcement of the agreement comes just one day after Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated reported that Canelo would be facing former welterweight contender Joshua Clottey in December:

Excitement for the fight is likely to be subdued, but it’s impossible to miss the larger message here.

Clottey is well past his best days, yes, but Canelo’s move back to HBO paves the way for a superfight next year with reigning middleweight champion Miguel Cotto, and it puts a pretty significant ding in Showtime’s future plans.

Stephen Espinoza, executive vice president of Showtime Sports and the man at the helm during the network’s recent boxing resurgence, didn’t take the news lightly, accusing Oscar De La Hoya of reneging on a verbal agreement to extend Canelo with the network:

But De La Hoya disputed that claim:

Espinoza's tone was noticeably different from August, when Bernard Hopkins shuffled his act back across the street to sign a light heavyweight unification showdown with Sergey Kovalev on November 8 in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Hopkins' move back to HBO was greeted with surprise by Espinoza, but he maintained that there would be no hard feelings and the network would welcome the legend back if the opportunity arose in the future.

At the time, Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times prognosticated that the move could be a precursor to De La Hoya bringing his golden goose back to his old stomping grounds, and it turns out he was spot on.

And the timing couldn’t be worse for Showtime.

The network has placed a ton of eggs into Canelo's basket as the sport’s next pound-for-pound superstar.

His good looks, in-ring skills and marketability make him the logical heir apparent as boxing’s next big-money star.

You don’t need to have any particular insight into the business workings of boxing to understand why Canelo is here and why this presents a slew of problems for Showtime.

Mannix summed it up pretty succinctly in one tweet:

Canelo vs. Cotto on Cinco de Mayo weekend would be the biggest fight in the sport, not Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.

It would suck in all the big-fight air in the room and likely force Mayweather—as speculated here last week—to skip his traditional May fight date.

With a lack of truly compelling opponents, he would have a heck of a hard time competing against that type of promotional might.

And Mayweather’s no fool.

Mexico vs. Puerto Rico on a huge Mexican holiday weekend?

That spells curtains.

And it could spell a tremendous amount of potential lost revenue for the man called Money and his benefactors.

Canelo’s move also comes at a time of possible turmoil in Mayweather’s business empire.

It’s entirely possible that he could’ve—as floated in the post-fight presser of his rematch with Marcos Maidana—skipped his next scheduled fight date anyway, but this could make the decision for him.

How long has it been since anyone but Mayweather dictated terms?

What makes Canelo unique is his exclusive status with Golden Boy.

Denis Poroy/Getty Images

He’s one of only two major fighters in De La Hoya’s stable—the other being Hopkins—who is only under contract with Golden Boy and not powerful adviser Al Haymon. And, we should expect, he'll be around longer than the seemingly ageless Hopkins.

Abner Mares was the third part of that group until he signed with Haymon in August.

Other young guns—including Danny Garcia and Adrien Broner—have mixed loyalties, leading to some uncertainty over their ultimate status once boxing’s current turmoil eventually shakes out.

With Haymon and Mayweather being close—Mayweather Promotions was recently awarded promoter’s licenses in Nevada and New York—some have speculated that De La Hoya’s fighters who are under contract with both could play out the string and move on from the company.

In comments to Ben Thompson of FightHype.com, Mayweather recently hinted at the possibility of splitting with longtime confidant and company CEO Leonard Ellerbe. At the same time, he emphasized that his relationship with Haymon remains strong.

Depending on how you look at that, it could be a sign of some serious rifts within the Mayweather empire, or it could be that the pound-for-pound king is gearing up for the next phase of his career and wants a more seasoned hand at the helm.

But, no matter how it all ends up, it’s the first serious sign of cracks in the usually pristine lens through which we’ve viewed the Mayweather enterprise. And that uncertainty doesn't do the pound-for-pound king or his network any favors.

Regardless of how all that jazz gets settled, none of it applies to Canelo.

He has zero uncertainty at the moment, and the big-fight possibilities are endless.

Canelo has shown throughout his young career that he’s willing to take on the tough fights and tricky challenges often avoided by fighters on the rise.

He earned his shot at Mayweather by dropping and beating Austin Trout—at the time one of boxing’s most-avoided fighters—and rebounded from that devastating loss by taking on dangerous slugger Alfredo Angulo.

In his most recent fight, Canelo took a close decision in an ugly fight from Erislandy Lara, an opponent his handlers likely preferred never to see him face.

So the reality of the Clottey fight is simple.

Canelo needs a somewhat soft opponent, because it’s the last one he’s likely to see for a while.

Clottey is still something of a name, and he’ll give the cinnamon-haired former champion an opportunity to look impressive on the road to a showdown with the Puerto Rican icon next year.

It’s a win-win for everyone involved.

Canelo, Cotto, HBO and even Clottey, who gets one more significant payday in a high-exposure fight.

And it’s a lose-lose for Showtime and Mayweather.

You can expect Canelo to do what he does best.

He’s bigger, fresher, stronger and faster than Clottey, and he should be able to blow right through him without much difficulty.

This fight is little more than a showcase, and in this particular situation, with big fights on the horizon, that’s just fine.

For Canelo and HBO, it’s all about what comes next.