Ryder Cup 2014: Early Vegas Odds for USA vs. Europe
The 2014 Ryder Cup is quite the lopsided event on paper, meaning bettors should take full advantage of the Vegas odds.
Team USA enters the 40th edition of the event at the Gleneagles Hotel a gigantic underdog, and not just because Tiger Woods is missing in action. Captain Tom Watson has to hope that his top veteran, Phil Mickelson, returns to form in a hurry, while rookies Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth do not fold under the immense pressure.
Meanwhile, European captain Paul McGinley gets to lean on red-hot names such as world No. 1 Rory McIlroy and can feel comfortable on home soil as Europe has won five of the last six encounters, minus 2008 and the epic showdown in 1999.
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Suffice it to say, the underdogs are just that for good reason. Here is how Vegas views things a few days out from the competition, with some analysis after the jump.
Ryder Cup Betting Lines
| Winner | -185 | +175 | +1100 |
| To Lift The Trophy | -225 | +175 | - |
Odds via OddsShark.com
Roster Breakdown
| Player | Age | Ryder Cup Record | Appearances ** |
| Rickie Fowler | 25 | 0-1-2 | 2 |
| Jim Furyk | 44 | 9-17-4 | 9 |
| Zach Johnson | 38 | 6-4-1 | 4 |
| Matt Kuchar | 36 | 3-2-2 | 3 |
| Phil Mickelson | 44 | 14-18-6 | 10 |
| Patrick Reed | 24 | 0-0-0 | 1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 21 | 0-0-0 | 1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 35 | 0-0-0 | 1 |
| Bubba Watson | 35 | 3-5-0 | 3 |
| Keegan Bradley* | 28 | 3-1-0 | 2 |
| Hunter Mahan* | 32 | 3-2-3 | 3 |
| Webb Simpson* | 29 | 2-2-0 | 2 |
| Player | Age | Ryder Cup Record | Appearances ** |
| Thomas Bjorn | 43 | 3-2-1 | 3 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 38 | 0-0-0 | 1 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 24 | 0-0-0 | 1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 34 | 16-8-4 | 7 |
| Martin Kaymer | 29 | 3-2-0 | 3 |
| Graeme McDowell | 35 | 5-5-2 | 4 |
| Rory McIlroy | 25 | 4-3-2 | 3 |
| Justin Rose | 34 | 6-3-0 | 3 |
| Henrik Stenson | 38 | 2-3-2 | 3 |
| Stephen Gallacher* | 40 | 0-0-0 | 1 |
| Ian Poulter* | 38 | 12-3-0 | 5 |
| Lee Westwood* | 41 | 18-13-6 | 9 |
*Captain's selection.
**Appearances include 2014.
The roster sheds a bit more light on why the Americans are so far behind in the minds of most.
Perhaps the first thing that jumps off the page is the alarming experience Mickelson brings to the table. Fourteen wins in 38 career matches is nothing to scoff at, but there is one problem—the 44-year-old star simply has not been that great this year.
Lefty went winless in 2014, the first time it has occurred since 2003. The course at Gleneagles requires some serious putting expertise, yet Mickelson ranks a miserable 159th in putting from inside five feet, per PGATour.com.
The veteran took some time off recently to prepare for the Ryder Cup, and many will point out that he scored three wins in as many tries while paired with Keegan Bradley in 2012. But Mickelson has been off his game all year and a lengthy trip for an encounter against a stacked European squad downright does not bode well for his chances.
There are reasons for hope, though. Rickie Fowler is as hot as any name on the planet at this point and has the talent to lift the team in the opening days. He finished in the top five at all four majors and in the top 10 in six of his last seven overall.
Veteran Jim Furyk is right there with him, having not missed a cut in a superb 29 events and placing in the top 10 a total of 11 times. Even better, he was the man who took down Sergio Garcia on Day 3 of the epic Team USA upset back in 1999.
Of course, the Europeans have Garcia once more, along with strong players such as Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Justin Rose.
Plus McIlroy.
For the top player in the world, the pressure of coming in with such a label is a welcomed challenge, as he told Coleman McDowell of GOLF Magazine:
"I know I will have a target on my back but I love that and I am going to play up to it as much as I can. It’s a massive compliment whenever the opposition are talking about you. I know what a huge fillip it would be for them if I lose, but it is up to me to make sure it doesn’t happen. I’m a double major champion this year, and it’s important that I embrace that and step up and take on the responsibility.
"
McIlory has won three tournaments with as many top-10 finishes in his last seven starts. His putting game, a key factor in such a tournament, has been great all year long:
| Putting from Inside 5' | 96.31% | 103 |
| Putting from 5-10' | 59.38% | 28 |
| Putting from - 10-15' | 30.43% | 83 |
| Putting from - 15-20' | 21.59% | 34 |
| Putting from - 20-25' | 8.45% | 155 |
| Putting from - > 25' | 11.70% | 1 |
| Putting from 5-15' | 47.27% | 57 |
| Putting from 15-25' | 15.72% | 76 |
On its own, McIlory's presence should provide a morale boost to a seasoned roster that did not necessarily need it in the first place.
His play, which should stay in form in front of a friendly audience, simply puts things over the top.
Prediction
Despite the overwhelming factors that seem to favor the Europeans, this one has experts divided.
For example, Alan Shipnuck of Sports Illustrated, via Golf.com, argues that Team USA has an advantage in two underrated areas:
"U.S. 14.5-13.5. It's a risk-reward course and the U.S. side collectively is significantly longer and in better form. I think Watson will out-captain McGinley. And playing at home as heavy favorites adds another layer of pressure for Europe."
On the other hand, though, the table above clearly demonstrates that the veterans on the European side have found significantly more success at the tournament than those on the Team USA roster.
Those veterans will make the difference in the end. The top five are clear and in good form, whereas casual observers would be hard pressed to even name Team USA's top five with any air of certainty at this point.
Team USA feels outgunned because it is. The Europeans field four of the top six golfers in the world with proven track records on a friendly course. Watson's side will have its moments, but a depleted roster will not be able to keep up over the course of the three days.
Prediction: Europe wins, 15-13
All info courtesy of RyderCup.com unless otherwise specified. Stats via PGATour.com.
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