NCAA Football Rankings 2014: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 4
The 2014 college football season has occurred on a gradual incline, starting strong in Week 1 and getting better and better each weekend.
Week 4 did not deviate from that trend, beginning with a wild all-ranked affair between Kansas State and Auburn on Thursday and ending with a Hail Mary by Arizona to beat Cal in the desert. Everything that happened between constituted the best slate of games we've seen so far this season.
Reigning No. 1 Florida State held on to beat Clemson without Jameis Winston, but will that be enough to retain the top spot? Does it matter that, per to Dan Wolken of USA Today, Jimbo Fisher confirmed Winston would "be [the team's] quarterback on Monday"?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here's a stab at predicting the Week 5 Associated Press rankings:
| 1. Alabama | 4-0 | 3 | def. Florida, 42-21 |
| 2. Florida State | 3-0 | 1 | def. Clemson, 23-17 |
| 3. Oregon | 4-0 | 2 | def. Washington State, 38-31 |
| 4. Oklahoma | 4-0 | 4 | def. West Virginia, 45-33 |
| 5. Texas A&M | 4-0 | 6 | def. SMU, 58-6 |
| 6. Auburn | 4-0 | 5 | def. Kansas State, 20-14 |
| 7. Baylor | 3-0 | 7 | BYE |
| 8. Notre Dame | 3-0 | 9 | BYE |
| 9. Ole Miss | 3-0 | 10 | BYE |
| 10. Michigan State | 3-1 | 11 | def. Eastern Michigan, 73-14 |
| 11. UCLA | 3-0 | 12 | BYE |
| 12. Georgia | 2-1 | 13 | def. Troy, 66-0 |
| 13. Arizona State | 3-0 | 15 | BYE |
| 14. South Carolina | 3-1 | 14 | def. Vanderbilt, 48-34 |
| 15. Stanford | 2-1 | 16 | BYE |
| 16. Mississippi State | 4-0 | NR | def. LSU, 34-29 |
| 17. USC | 2-1 | 17 | BYE |
| 18. LSU | 2-1 | 8 | loss to Mississippi State, 34-29 |
| 19. BYU | 4-0 | 21 | def. Virginia, 41-33 |
| 20. Wisconsin | 3-1 | 19 | def. Bowling Green, 68-17 |
| 21. Nebraska | 4-0 | 24 | def. Miami, 41-31 |
| 22. East Carolina | 3-1 | NR | def. North Carolina, 70-41 |
| 23. Ohio State | 2-1 | 23 | BYE |
| 24. Oklahoma State | 2-1 | 25 | BYE |
| 25. Kansas State | 3-1 | 20 | loss to Auburn, 20-14 |
Fun Facts
•If Alabama indeed climbs to No. 1 in the poll—which is, of course, not certain—this would be the seventh consecutive season where the Crimson Tide have held that spot for at least one week.
•By contrast, East Carolina, which is projected to enter the AP top 25, would be doing so for the first time since 2008, when it started the year with wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Pirates have only been ranked in three seasons between 1984-2013.
Teams Rising
Mississippi State
Dak Prescott announced himself to the college football world last season.
He announced himself to the sporting world at large Saturday evening.
The built-like-a-tight-end quarterback played like a Heisman contender in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, leading Mississippi State to a 34-29 win over LSU. Head coach Dan Mullen orchestrated a masterpiece of playcalling, hitting LSU where it was weakest (up the middle) and mixing in some well-timed chances down the field.
A near-collapse in the fourth quarter is not enough to discredit that.
East Carolina
The Pirates' win at Virginia Tech looks a little worse now that the Hokies lost to Georgia Tech on the same field.
However, Ruffin McNeil's team took its ranking fate into its own hands, beating North Carolina 70-41. The Tar Heels were antsy for revenge after what they thought was an embarrassing margin of defeat—55-31—in 2013, but instead, they found even worse humiliation.
Like Central Florida last season, ECU lost a close road game at South Carolina but appears to be the best group-of-five team in the country. Marshall is neck-and-neck with it for that title, but the Thundering Herd are docked points for not having played anybody.
Nebraska
Nebraska wasn't perfect against Miami, but it was good enough to beat a viable opponent, which is all that matters in September.
Running back Ameer Abdullah put the Huskers on his back for the umpteenth time, rushing for 229 yards against an improved Hurricanes run defense. Alex Donno of 560 WQAM summed it up nicely, saying it "could be Abdullah's Heisman game."
As long as Nebraska has the active FBS yardage leader, it will always have a chance to win its game. In a down year for the Big Ten, that could mean a surprising run for Bo Pelini's team.
(It might even lose less than four games.)
Teams Falling
Missouri
Indiana beat Missouri on Missouri's home field, 31-27. A few hours earlier, Wisconsin beat Bowling Green, 68-17. Last weekend, Bowling Green beat Indiana, 48-45.
Do with that information what you please.
Missouri lost to a Hoosiers team that isn't altogether bad but definitely isn't good. It's excusable for a ranked team to struggle defending running back Tevin Coleman—it won't be long until a bunch of NFL defenses do the same—but it's not excusable for a ranked team to score 27 points against Indiana's putrid defense. It's just not.
Missouri has a lot of proving to do before it gets back into the poll.
LSU
Personnel attrition finally caught up to LSU, which got beat up and down the field—its home field—by Mississippi State.
The Tigers were dominated at the point of attack and had no answer for Prescott, who beat them with his arm and his legs equally. The defensive tackles did not look like they belonged in the SEC, and quarterback Anthony Jennings reverted to his Outback Bowl form.
LSU is a team with no passing offense or run defense, which does not seem to bode well in a stacked SEC West. It's more likely to play spoiler for one of its rivals than it is to compete for a spot in the CFP.
And no, that is not an overreaction.
Florida State
The fall won't be huge, but don't be surprised if Florida State checks in at No. 2 behind Alabama Monday morning.
Part of that has nothing to do with the Seminoles. It has to do with a dominant-looking Alabama team that outgained Florida by 400 in the first three quarters of a three-touchdown win. It overcame a trio of turnovers and thoroughly beat a viable team.
Florida State, meanwhile, somehow salvaged victory with Winston on the bench against Clemson. Its form can be forgiven (for not having the reigning Heisman Trophy winner), but the turmoil and distraction of Winston's situation might cede votes. That it's offensive line appears to have forgotten how to block doesn't help.
The Seminoles have not looked like the best team through four weeks.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
