Duke Basketball: Predicting the Toughest Tests of Duke's 2014-15 Season

The Duke basketball program and its loaded 2014 recruiting class has its eyes set on the national title this season, but there are some difficult tests it must first navigate.

While the Blue Devils almost always get the opponent’s best shot, their ACC title hopes and seeding for the NCAA tournament will rest on the performances in these games. Duke doesn’t have to win every single contest on this list, but it cannot afford too many poor performances if it wants a conference crown and No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday. 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of Duke’s toughest tests for the 2014-15 campaign.

Stretch from Jan. 17-31

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Perhaps the biggest thing that separates the power conferences from the mid-majors is the grind of the middle of the conference schedule.

Sure, it’s easy to get up for a showdown with North Carolina, but when you play an extended stretch of games against difficult teams, there is bound to be the occasional poor performance. Duke will need to watch out for that when it plays five games, four of which are on the road, from Jan. 17-31.

The Blue Devils start that stretch with a trip to Louisville to take on the always tough Cardinals and then return home for a date with Pittsburgh. Following that, there are three straight road games against St. Johns in New York, at Notre Dame and at Virginia.

ANDREW SHURTLEFF/Associated Press

In a vacuum, Duke is capable of winning all of these games, but it will be somewhat early in the conference season for a young and freshmen-oriented squad. There may be some growing pains along the way.

That last game will be Duke’s only contest against the defending ACC regular-season and tournament champion Cavaliers. That means a date with the patient and frustrating style of play from Virginia. It will be important for the freshmen to avoid sloppy turnovers from pushing the pace too much to compensate for Virginia’s deliberate offense.

The other contest that jumps out is the showdown with Louisville and Montrezl Harrell.

Harrell could have been a lottery pick in this year’s draft but returned to school as a double-double force. Jahlil Okafor will have his hands full with one of the best players in the entire country in a raucous environment. 

Prediction: Duke finishes 4-1 in this stretch, with the lone loss coming at Louisville. It is simply asking too much to win all five in a row for a young team, but the Blue Devils will hold the talent advantage every time out and find a way to quiet the Virginia crowd early. The Cavaliers’ style is not suitable to coming from behind, and Duke will gradually pull away after a fast start.

At Wisconsin

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Duke plays a particularly difficult nonconference schedule this season thanks to dates with Michigan State and the defending champion Connecticut Huskies, among others, but the showdown at Wisconsin is the one that truly stands out.

The Badgers stand in stark contrast to the Blue Devils as a veteran-laden team that just made the Final Four last year. Duke is a young, freshman-dominated team that is coming off an incredibly disappointing showing in the NCAA tournament. 

Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan hinted at the type of atmosphere Duke will face in the Kohl Center, via UWBadgers.com:

"

We're excited to welcome Duke back to the Kohl Center. I've known Mike Krzyzewski for a long time and have a lot of respect for him and his program. Excuse the play on words, but this will be a challenging match-up for us. We always try to put together a tough non-conference schedule that will get us ready for Big Ten play, and this certainly fits that category. We have tremendous fans that fill the Kohl Center every game and it's exciting to be able to reward them with a big-time match-up like this.

"

Eric Gay/Associated Press

It is more than just the intimidating crowd, though, that makes this a difficult test. Frank Kaminsky will challenge Okafor by bringing the Duke big man outside of his comfort zone of the paint, while supporting pieces Sam Dekker, Traevon Jackson, Josh Gasser and Nigel Hayes will all test the other Blue Devils.

Yes, Duke has a golden opportunity to pick up a critical nonconference win against a potential top-five team, but the young Blue Devils won’t quite be up to the task this early in the season. There will be gradual improvement from the freshmen as they become more comfortable at the collegiate level, which will pay dividends in March, but Wisconsin is loaded with talented veterans who will be playing at a high level all year.

Perhaps it will be a different story if there is a rematch on a neutral court in the NCAA tournament. 

Prediction: The experience and crowd edge means Wisconsin will take this one for the Big Ten in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

North Carolina Games

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

The showdowns with archrival North Carolina are always difficult tests every year for Duke as the players attempt to tune out the outside hype and focus on beating a formidable opponent.

However, this is about more than just the rivalry this season. Both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils have ACC title aspirations and the personnel to do it, so head-to-head victories will be critical in the conference race.

The biggest individual matchup will feature Duke’s freshman point guard Tyus Jones and North Carolina’s playmaker Marcus Paige. Paige is arguably the best player in the ACC as a lethal scoring threat, pesky defender and heady point guard who is always ready to set up teammates with impressive passes. 

Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports believes Paige will take home the conference’s MVP honors:

Throw in other players like Kennedy Meeks, J.P. Tokoto, Theo Pinson, Joel Berry and Brice Johnson, and the Tar Heels are loaded with talent. Duke may not win at Chapel Hill, but it absolutely needs to defend home court to avoid dropping two against its rival.

The ACC title may depend on it. 

Prediction: Like last year, the home team will use the energy from the crowd and rally to victory in each game. The two rivals will split their regular-season meetings for the second straight year, which may set up an epic tiebreaker in the ACC tournament.

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