College Football Picks Week 4: Odds and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams

If last week showed bettors anything, it is that even the seemingly easiest of weeks in the college football realm can morph into a disaster.

Last week seemed easy enough. National heavyweights booked opponents they were sure to use as one final practice run before conference play began. It was easy coin for bettors before the season got tricky.

Then the upsets happened.

This week seems easy enough, too. Conference heavyweights mostly open up against perceived cannon fodder before taking on schools in their weight class. It seems easy coin for bettors before the difficulty is turned up a notch. 

If only things were so simple. Thank the spreading parity for the early hurdles. Here is a look at the Week 4 Top 25 slate.

2014 College Football Week 4 Top 25 Odds

Home	Away	Odds	Prediction
No. 1 Florida State	No. 22 Clemson	FSU (-20.5)	FSU, 35-14
No. 2 Oregon	Washington State	ORE (-19.5)	ORE, 42-14
No. 3 Alabama	Florida	ALA (-16)	ALA, 30-10
West Virginia	No. 4 Oklahoma	OU (-11)	WV, 38-35
No. 20 Kansas State	No. 5 Auburn	AU (-6.5)	AU, 23-14
SMU	No. 6 Texas A&M	TAM (-28)	TAM, 56-7
No. 8 LSU	Mississippi State	LSU (-7)	LSU, 24-20
No. 11 Michigan State	Eastern Michigan	MSU (-45)	MSU, 35-9
No. 13 Georgia	Troy	UGA (-35.5)	UGA, 40-10
Vanderbilt	No. 14 South Carolina	SC (-20.5)	SC, 35-18
No. 18 Missouri	Indiana	MIZZ (-16)	MIZZ, 35-28
No. 19 Wisconsin	Bowling Green	WIS (-17)	WIS, 38-20
No. 21 BYU	Virginia	BYU (-13.5)	BYU, 27-23
No. 24 Nebraska	Miami	NEB (-8)	MIA, 34-27

Note: All odds, updated as of 8 p.m. ET on Sept. 18, are courtesy of Odds Shark. AP poll via The Associated Press.

Odds to Avoid 

Mississippi State vs. No. 8 LSU (-7)

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Look, the spread is relatively small here as is, and for good reason. Take a look at some of the factoids compiled by ESPN CollegeFootball:

As one can glean, LSU has been dominant in its past two contests, although it is important to point out that the opposition was minuscule in the form of Sam Houston State and Louisiana-Monroe.

More telling in regards to the 2014 Tigers is the season-opening clash with then-ranked No. 14 Wisconsin, where Les Miles' team hardly squeaked out a four-point win and got help in the form of two Badgers turnovers.

One thing the Badgers do well that flustered LSU? Run the ball. The team gouged the Tigers defense at home to the tune of 268 yards—140 yards and a score came from Melvin Gordon.

That happens to be an issue, as the Bulldogs can be quite potent on the ground. Junior back Josh Robinson currently averages 6.3 yards per carry and has 288 yards and three scores. Quarterback Dak Prescott, another junior, has rushed 40 times for 273 yards and two scores.

Prescott is of particular concern for LSU Saturday. He can beat teams through the air, too, as he has shown with 696 yards and nine touchdowns to two interceptions.

"Dak Prescott is as good a player as there is at his position in our conference," Miles said, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "He's a guy that stands back in the pocket and knows what he's looking at. He makes the throws and he has the ability to pull it down. He runs with strength."

Thanks to a strong rush defense, LSU will need to lean on sophomore quarterback Anthony Jennings for critical production at one point or another, and while he continues to improve as the starter, it's a scary proposition for those who want to bet that the Tigers can cover the spread.

Even at home, this one has the feel of a tricky encounter and, while the Bulldogs record in the past decade and change against LSU is horrific, that just makes it seem even worse as an overdue upset.

Stay away, just in case.

Prediction: Tigers 24, Bulldogs 20

Virginia vs. No. 21 BYU (-13.5)

Chris Covatta/Getty Images

Do bettors really want to go down this path again?

Virginia burnt boatloads of bettors just one week ago in an upset of then-ranked No. 21 Louisville.

Now BYU is No. 21. For bettors with strong memories, the Cavaliers also burnt the Cougars last season—one of their two wins on the year came against BYU.

These Cavaliers are no joke thanks to a strong defense, as seemingly always. An eight-point loss to start the season against UCLA hurt, but a 23-21 win over the Cardinals in which Mike London's team controlled the clock, gave up just 282 total yards and allowed just four third-down conversions on 14 attempts bodes well against BYU.

Then again, the Cougars are 3-0 and led by junior dual-threat quarterback Taysom Hill, who already has 689 yards and four scores through the air, with another 356 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.

Running wild on UConn, Texas and Houston is impressive in a way, but Hill has yet to be truly tested. As former NFL player David Nixon points out, he may have little room to operate if his line loses the battle in the trenches:

"

BYU's O Line will have their hands full next week with Valles and this D Line from Virginia. Pure athletes.

— David Nixon (@D_Nixon) September 13, 2014"

To be frank, the spread here is entirely too large against a Virginia team known for its defense. The Cavaliers held Heisman contender Brett Hundley in check without a touchdown pass and lost by eight, before embarrassing a Louisville team known for its offense.

On the flip side, Hill's eye-popping individual numbers still only led to an eight-point win over a 1-2 Houston team.

Feel confident in a traditional defense keeping things close Saturday.

Prediction: Cougars 27, Cavaliers 23

Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.