NFL Picks Week 3: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

We say every year with the NFL that its impact is lost, but the unpredictable nature of this sport is a large part of what keeps us coming back. The difference between a win and a loss is so slim that winning a Super Bowl can come down to a fingertip. 

Imagine being an oddsmaker having to set betting lines for the NFL each week. It's impossible to do with any certainty because you have injuries and trends from previous games that influence your thinking, yet every Sunday oddsmakers are right more often than not. 

Analysts are also put in a no-win situation because everything is so reactionary. We don't look at the body of work anymore, but examine all that happened last week. Football is an evolving thing with peaks and valleys, so you can't get sucked into one bad performance. 

However, we are going to put the odds and expert predictions for this week's games under the microscope to see what they are saying and react to it. 

Matchup	Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)	Falcons, 31-27
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)	Chargers, 24-20
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)	Bengals, 27-17
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Pick 'Em)	Browns, 23-21
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)	Packers, 27-24
Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts, 31-13
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-15.5)	Patriots, 30-10
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-11.5)	Saints, 34-13
Houston Texans (-1) at New York Giants	Giants, 20-17
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	Washington, 24-23
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (Pick 'Em)	Cowboys, 24-16
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals	49ers, 23-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-4)	Dolphins, 28-24
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)	Broncos, 26-24
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3)	Panthers, 28-20
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5)	Bears, 20-16

Expert Predictions

Game of the Week: Broncos at Seahawks

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

If you're talking about Week 3 games, it starts with the Super Bowl rematch between the Broncos and Seahawks in Seattle. While the stakes are considerably lower this time around, Denver's got a lot to prove because its front office based the offseason around getting more physical to keep up with NFC teams. 

Watching the Broncos through two weeks, this hasn't been the same team as last year. They are still putting up points (55 through two games), but the second halves have been a struggle, with 10 total points scored. That won't work against the Seahawks. 

At the very least, this matchup should be closer than 43-8. Pete Prisco of CBS Sports predicts a three-point win for the Seahawks, factoring in the home-field advantage and the defense getting on Peyton Manning. 

"The Super Bowl rematch should be a fun one to watch," Prisco writes. "The Broncos want revenge, but it's hard to get in Seattle. The Seahawks are a different team at home. They will get after Peyton Manning again. Seahawks take it."

Manning has been spot-on through two games, with 511 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions and a completion percentage of 69.4. Those numbers did come against Indianapolis and Kansas City, not exactly pillars of the defensive movement. 

Vinnie Iyer of SportingNews.com made a point about the dynamic figure on offense and special teams the Broncos couldn't stop in the Super Bowl and who is even more prevalent for the Seahawks now:

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Linebacker Malcolm Smith was Super Bowl MVP, but Percy Harvin was a close second. He was a nightmare for the Broncos both flying out of the backfield and putting the game away on a kickoff return. Now healthy right away, the Seahawks are unleashing him to open up everything else.

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Harvin has 20 touches through two games between rushes, receptions and returns. He's averaging 140 all-purpose yards per game so far. Health has always been the knock against him, but right now there are no complaints about what he's doing. 

It's amazing how little faith there is in the Broncos winning at Seattle. While the list hasn't been completely filled out, none of ESPN's NFL analysts to throw in their predictions have Denver winning. 

While it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Seahawks win, especially coming off an ugly loss at San Diego, the Broncos have put too much on the line for this particular matchup to fall short. In a playoff scenario, the prediction might be different. For now, there's more urgency on Denver's part because of how the team is perceived after the February debacle. 

Upset of the Week: Washington over Philadelphia

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

This has more to do with the way Philadelphia is playing than an inherent belief in Kirk Cousins as the savior for all that was wrong with Washington's offense. After all, Cousins' dynamite 2014 debut came against Jacksonville. 

What the Eagles are doing, despite being 2-0, is fascinating. Nick Foles has regressed now that the league has more tape to watch. He's completing 58.5 percent of his passes, down from 64 last year, with two interceptions and three fumbles. The 25-year-old had two picks and two fumbles in all of 2013. 

Not helping matters is the lack of trust and explosiveness from the receiving corps. Last year, Foles had DeSean Jackson on the outside to take the top off defenses. Riley Cooper has gone from 17.8 yards per reception last year to 7.4 through two games this year. 

Foles' production to wide receivers has fallen precipitously, as evidenced by this stat halfway through the Monday night game against Indianapolis, via ESPN Stats & Info:

There's only so long Philadelphia's mistake-prone quarterback play can last. Darren Sproles, who's got 263 total yards and averages more than 10 yards per touch, has been a godsend for this offense because LeSean McCoy is averaging 3.7 yards per carry. 

You can see why analysts like Mike Florio and Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk are high on Philadelphia this week precisely because the Eagles are winning with so much room to improve.

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We’ll all have our eyes on Kirk Cousins getting the start and potentially playing well enough over the next few weeks to keep the job even after Robert Griffin III is ready to go. But I’m more interested in watching Nick Foles, who has made a lot of mental mistakes this year, the kind of mistakes he wasn’t making last year. Fortunately for the Eagles, they’ve managed to go 2-0 without Foles even playing very well. I think they should improve to 3-0 and Foles should have a better game than he’s played so far.

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However, we are underrating Washington's defense. Even with two games against Houston and Jacksonville—hardly standard bearers for moving the ball in the NFL—Jay Gruden's team ranks third in pass yards allowed and fourth in rushing yards allowed. 

The Jaguars are a common opponent for Philadelphia and Washington. Chad Henne had 266 passing yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, compared to 193 yards on 14-of-28 passing in Week 2. He was also sacked 10 times against Washington. 

Cousins is going to be the focus for Washington's offense coming off last week's 250-yard, two-touchdown performance. Jackson is intent on playing this week, reportedly telling McCoy that he would be on the field against his former team, per Dan Steinberg of The Washington Post.

There's something to be said for a player looking to prove his former employer wrong. The odds and experts may not like Washington, but they'll be sorry when the game ends. 

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