Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

New Orleans is almost always favored when it plays at the Superdome, sometimes by big numbers.

And lately the Saints have been beating those expectations, winning eight straight and churning a 7-0-1 against-the-spread profit in their last eight home games. The Saints hope to extend that run, and pick up their first victory of the season, when they host the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Saints opened as 9.5-point favorites, but it was up to 11.5 points at some books by Wednesday; the total was 51. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.2-22.9 Saints

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

After opening this season with a win at St. Louis, the Vikes experienced a classic NFL letdown last week, getting drubbed at home by New England. But that's just life in the NFL: up one week, down the next.

Peterson will be out again, after going on the Exempt/Commissioner's Permission list as a result of his indictment. Minnesota, of course, missed him, garnering just 54 yards on the ground against the Patriots, 13 on one Matt Cassel scramble.

And, for some reason, the dangerous Cordarrelle Patterson had just four touches from scrimmage; that number should increase this week. Finally, the Vikes have a bit of history on their side (they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five visits to New Orleans).

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are 0-2, but both losses have come on field goals on the last play of the game. A couple of plays here and there and New Orleans could be 2-0. Last week, the Saints lost at Cleveland 26-24, even though they outgained the Browns 397-324 and outrushed them 174-122.

But one of Cleveland's scores came on a 62-yard interception return, which in the end made the difference. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is up to his old tricks, averaging 10 yards per completion so far this year, tight end Jimmy Graham has 18 catches for 200 yards already and the Saints' running game has accounted for 139 and 174 yards, respectively.

New Orleans has also beaten the Vikings three times in a row, most recently by a 42-20 score in 2011.

Smart Pick

The Saints are known for their aerial attack, but hidden within that scheme is the ability to control the ball and the clock. Last week, New Orleans won the time-of-possession battle against Cleveland, 32 minutes to 28. While the Saints lost the game, teams that won the possession battle went 10-6 ATS last week.

And even though New Orleans will be without running back Mark Ingram for the next month or so, it should still be able to move the ball on the ground Sunday. So the pick here is New Orleans, minus the points.

Trends

• Saints 10-1-1 ATS past 12 home games (including 7-0-1)
• OVER 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five games as road underdog

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.