Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Green Bay has owned the rivalry with Detroit for quite a while now, winning 15 of the last 17 meetings, going 13-4 against the spread.

But the Lions are getting tired of it, as they showed in blowing out the Packers last Thanksgiving. Detroit seeks a similar result when the teams meet Sunday afternoon at Ford Field, and they are getting more than a little respect from oddsmakers and predictions computers alike.

Point spread: Lions opened as two-point favorites; the total was 52. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 24.6-17.2 Lions

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are coming off their first victory of the season, a 31-24 decision over the Jets. Green Bay fell behind 21-3 early in the second quarter, then scored 28 of the last 31 points of the game. The Packers eschewed the running game Sunday, as they played from behind, but got another winning performance from quarterback Aaron Rodgers, with three touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Jordy Nelson caught nine balls for a career-high 209 yards, scoring the winning touchdown on an 80-yard catch-and-run. Green Bay is already dangerous offensively, but when it gets its running game going it will really be a handful.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions won their season opener in convincing fashion over the Giants, then took a tough 24-7 loss last week at Carolina. Detroit actually outgained and outrushed the Panthers, but committed three turnovers.

The Lions swept their divisional home games last year both SU and ATS, and that includes that 40-10 romp over the Packers, although Green Bay was without Rodgers that day.

If Detroit can run the ball a little against a Packers defense that just gave up 146 yards on the ground to the Jets, and limit what has been a poor Green Bay ground game, it stands a good chance of extending its winning streak against the Pack to two and its streak of divisional home victories to five.

Smart Pick

This one is liable to turn into a shootout. So, who's got more weapons? Even though they haven't shown it yet this year, the Packers run the ball a little better than the Lions, and they're a little deeper in their receiving corps.

So, for a game in which both teams might score 30 points, the pick is with Green Bay. And the over 52.

Trends:

• Green Bay 2-8-2 ATS last 12 games
• Packers 5-2 SU and ATS last seven road games vs. NFC North
• Lions 4-0 ATS last four home games vs. NFC North

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.