Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start this season, but they will be tested for the first time on Saturday when they visit an LSU Tigers team that has beaten them 14 straight times.

LSU has covered the spread in the last four meetings between the SEC schools, including a 59-26 rout in 2013 as a seven-point road favorite.

Point Spread: The Tigers opened as seven-point favorites at Tiger Stadium, but the spread was bet to nearly 10 points by Wednesday. The total sits at roughly 49.5.

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: LSU 48, Mississippi State 41

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs Can Cover the Spread

This is a better Mississippi State team than last year, one that has covered the spread twice in three games and is led by a dangerous dual-threat quarterback in Dak Prescott.

In last season’s meeting, Prescott rushed for 103 yards and one touchdown on 12 carries while sharing the signal-calling responsibilities with then-senior Tyler Russell.

The 6'2", 230-pound junior has thrown for more than 200 yards and rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last two games for the Bulldogs, who have covered their last four games in conference play along with seven of their past eight overall.

Why the LSU Tigers Can Cover the Spread

The Tigers have blanked their last two opponents by a combined score of 87-0 to improve to 3-0 against the spread this season. The latest win was 31-0 against Louisiana-Monroe, with heralded freshman running back Leonard Fournette totaling 52 yards and one touchdown on 10 carries and one touchdown.

Fournette now has 144 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries in the last two games and figures to get a heavier workload as the season progresses.

LSU is also 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite and could take advantage of Mississippi State’s recent woes away from home. The Bulldogs are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight as road underdogs.

Smart Pick

Mississippi State may be better, but the Tigers defense looks outstanding through three games. LSU has not surrendered one point since the 12:24 mark of the third quarter of the team’s 28-24 season-opening win against Wisconsin—a span of nearly 10 quarters.

The Bulldogs have struggled to score in their last two visits to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, scoring just three touchdowns and one field goal.

In the last meeting there, the Tigers sealed a 37-17 victory with a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown with 1:13 remaining.

This is one of those rivalries where one team is in the other’s head before the first snap. Look for LSU to shut down Mississippi State again in another double-digit home win.

Trends:

• The total has gone under in eight of Mississippi State's last 11 games.
• LSU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games when playing at home against Mississippi State.

All point spreads and lines courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates.