Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings: Updated Overview for All Positions

There are no certainties in fantasy football. The NFL would be pretty boring if we knew exactly what was going to happen, after all. I'd be thrilled if I predicted the Philadelphia Eagles to win every game by a 50-0 margin and it actually happened.

But I'd probably end up pretty bored, too.

So no, there are no certainties. Keeping that in mind while I do my weekly rankings, I decided it didn't make any sense to predict how many points a player might score. Instead, I wanted to determine how smart it might be to start that player based on several different factors, including his ability, matchup, offense and consistency.

I call it "startability." OK, OK, it's a dumb word, but it is a concept that should help you set the smartest lineup. So with that in mind, let's break down my rankings of the smartest starts for your fantasy team this week.

Notes: For a full explanation of the rankings, go here. Abridged version: "Ability" measures a player's overall talent, proficiency at his position and ability to produce fantasy numbers. "Offense" measures how much that team's offense improves his fantasy stock. The overall "startability" grade is weighted. All point totals and points-against statistics via ESPN standard scoring leagues. 

NFL Schedule

Thursday, Sept. 18	Time (ET)
Sunday, Sept. 21	Time (ET)
Monday, Sept. 22	Time (ET)
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	8:25 p.m.
Oakland at New England	1 p.m.
San Diego at Buffalo	1 p.m.
Dallas at St. Louis	1 p.m.
Washington at Philadelphia	1 p.m.
Houston at New York Giants	1 p.m.
Minnesota at New Orleans	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Cincinnati	1 p.m.
Baltimore at Cleveland	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Detroit	1 p.m.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	1 p.m.
San Francisco at Arizona	4:05 p.m.
Denver at Seattle	4:25 p.m.
Kansas City at Miami	4:25 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Carolina	8:30 p.m.
Chicago at New York Jets	8:30 PM

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
1	Andrew Luck	48	18	12	8	A+ (86)
2	Matt Stafford	48	15	13	8	A (84)
3	Drew Brees	49	11	14	9	A (83)
4	Jay Cutler	41	23	13	4	A (81)
5	Aaron Rodgers	49	7	14	9	A- (79)
6	Cam Newton	47	12	11	8	B+ (78)
7	Matt Ryan	46	13	11	7	B (77)
8	Russell Wilson	43	17	10	7	B (77)
9	Nick Foles	39	20	13	5	B (77)
10	Peyton Manning	50	1	15	10	B- (76)
11	Tony Romo	42	14	12	6	C+ (74)
12	Philip Rivers	42	13	9	6	C (70)
13	Tom Brady	45	15	5	5	C (70)
14	Colin Kaepernick	44	9	10	5	C (68)
15	Kirk Cousins	34	21	8	4	C- (67)
16	Ryan Tannehill	36	22	3	3	D+ (64)
17	Joe Flacco	39	14	5	3	D (61)
18	Ben Roethlisberger	41	8	7	4	D (60)
19	Andy Dalton	40	3	9	6	D (58)
20	Eli Manning	38	8	3	3	D- (52)

If ever there was a clear example of why I not only have an entire category in my rankings dedicated to a player's offense but also how much particular offenses can impact a player's fantasy value, Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles are that example. 

Foles was pretty dreadful for much of the game against the Indianapolis Colts. He missed open receivers, looked uneasy in the pocket and never seemed to get into a great rhythm, at least not early on. He looked like a player who threw for about 150 yards and no touchdowns.

But no, on Monday night, Foles threw for 331 yards and a score. How? 

Well, there's this little stat, from Football Perspective:

Yes, that means over two-thirds of Foles' yards on Monday were actually yards after the catch. But that's the system he plays in, folks—guys are given space to make plays, and Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy, for instance, are the type of players who will do big things with those opportunities.

Add in the fact that Foles had wide-open receivers all night long—and once Foles starts hitting them more consistently, his numbers will take a jump—and you can see why Eagles head coach Chip Kelly's offense virtually ensures Foles will continue to produce for fantasy owners.

As you can see, I love Jay Cutler this week. For starters, he faces a New York Jets defense that is giving up 20.5 points on average per week to opposing quarterbacks, 31st in the NFL. But Cutler has also been impressive in consecutive weeks from a fantasy perspective, throwing for 349 yards and two touchdowns (with two picks) in Week 1 and a whopping four touchdown passes against the San Francisco 49ers last week. 

That, along with a tasty matchup, has given me confidence in the oft-erratic Cutler. Perhaps Bears head coach Marc Trestman is working his magic on yet another quarterback.

And then there's Peyton Manning, a player I am completely torn about. On one hand, he's the safest quarterback in fantasy football and has excellent weapons at his disposal. On the other hand, he's playing the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle this week, where fantasy quarterbacks go to die. 

In their last nine home games during the regular season, the Seahawks have allowed double-digit fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks just once. That's an absolutely insane statistic. And while Manning threw for 280 yards an a touchdown on a neutral field, the Seahawks also forced four turnovers in that game, and they're even harder to deal with in Seattle. 

I think there is the chance that Manning and company could surprise us all and have a big game, gaining some revenge for the Super Bowl embarrassment in the process. And I'd rather take my chances on Manning than some of the players lower than him on these rankings. 

On the other hand, I think his ceiling is pretty darn low. If you think he's going to get 20 points this week, well, think again. If he hits the 15-17 range, it will have been a good afternoon. 

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
1	Marshawn Lynch	47	14	15	10	A+ (86)
2	Arian Foster	47	15	13	10	A+ (85)
3	LeSean McCoy	49	10	15	10	A (84)
4	Alfred Morris	43	14	13	9	A (79)
5	Reggie Bush	43	20	9	7	A (79)
6	DeMarco Murray	46	10	12	9	A (77)
7	Joique Bell	39	20	9	7	A (75)
8	Doug Martin	40	24	6	5	A (75)
9	Matt Forte	47	3	14	10	A- (74)
10	Knile Davis	40	12	14	8	A- (74)
11	Giovani Bernard	44	10	12	8	A- (74)
12	C.J. Spiller	43	15	9	6	B+ (73)
13	Eddie Lacy	44	7	12	7	B (70)
14	Montee Ball	42	8	12	8	B (70)
15	Bernard Pierce	35	20	10	5	B (70)
16	Darren Sproles	41	10	12	6	B (69)
17	Zac Stacy	37	9	8	5	B (69)
18	Le'Veon Bell	45	3	13	9	B (69)
19	Ahmad Bradshaw	36	23	6	4	B (69)
20	Stevan Ridley	36	21	7	4	B- (68)
21	Rashad Jennings	36	14	10	6	C+ (66)
22	Chris Johnson	39	15	7	5	C+ (66)
23	Frank Gore	42	2	13	9	C+ (66)
24	Shane Vereen	35	20	7	3	C+ (66)
25	Trent Richardson	34	23	6	3	C+ (66)
26	Matt Asiata	30	19	14	1	C (64)
27	Andre Ellington	41	3	11	6	C (62)
28	DeAngelo Williams*	34	17	6	4	C- (61)
29	Darren McFadden*	35	16	6	4	C- (61)
30	Toby Gerhart	35	18	5	3	C- (61)
31	Fred Jackson	36	15	6	4	C- (61)
32	Chris Ivory	31	15	7	5	D+ (58)
33	Lamar Miller	36	10	8	3	D (57)
34	Terrance West	36	5	10	6	D (57)
35	Donald Brown	33	10	9	5	D (57)
36	Khiry Robinson	33	12	7	4	D (56)
37	Pierre Thomas	36	12	4	3	D (55)
38	Danny Woodhead	33	10	6	3	D- (52)

At this time next week, I may concede that Joique Bell is the most valuable Lions running back for fantasy owners and not Reggie Bush. There are hints this has already happened; Bell has more carries (25 to 15), rushing yards (87 to 41), targets in the passing game (12 to nine) and receiving yards (66 to 55). Bush is considered the starter, but perhaps that's simply a cosmetic label at this point.

Perhaps. I still believe in Bush's talent and explosiveness, especially in a week when the Detroit Lions play a Green Bay Packers team that is giving up an average of 26 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs, 28th in the NFL. In my mind, that makes both Bell and Bush extremely safe options. Look for Bush to produce this week. 

In place of Jamaal Charles this week, Knile Davis makes his debut in the rankings. After last week's 22 rushes for 79 yards and a touchdown—and given Kansas City's dearth of weapons in the passing game—I think he's an extremely safe player to slide into your RB2 slot. He may be a backup, but given his talent and Kansas City's offense, he's an extremely smart start until Charles returns.

As you can see, sometimes matchups can really alter a player's value in a given week, for better or worse. This week, Bernard Pierce is on the side of the better, facing a Cleveland Browns team giving up 25 fantasy points on average per week to opposing running backs. 

Other players that could benefit from tasty matchups? Look out for Ahmad Bradshaw (he's better than Trent Richardson, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are just awful) and Stevan Ridley (after last week's 101-yard effort, he should terrorize an Oakland Raiders defense that has already given up 400 rushing yards this season if he can just hold onto the ball).

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
1	Brandon Marshall	48	23	14	10	A+ (95)
2	Calvin Johnson	50	17	14	10	A+ (91)
3	Dez Bryant	49	14	13	9	A (85)
4	Andre Johnson	46	22	9	8	A (85)
5	Vincent Jackson	45	22	9	6	A (82)
6	Julio Jones	49	14	13	6	A (82)
7	Alshon Jeffery*	44	23	10	5	A (82)
8	A.J. Green*	49	8	13	10	A- (80)
9	Jordy Nelson	48	10	14	8	A- (80)
10	DeSean Jackson	47	17	9	6	A- (79)
11	Percy Harvin	47	12	12	7	B+ (78)
12	Cordarrelle Patterson	42	20	10	5	B+ (77)
13	Randall Cobb	45	10	13	8	B+ (76)
14	Demaryius Thomas	48	3	15	9	B (75)
15	Jeremy Maclin	39	15	12	6	B (72)
16	Pierre Garcon	40	17	9	5	B (71)
17	Antonio Brown	46	5	11	9	B (71)
18	Roddy White	40	14	11	6	B (71)
19	Mike Wallace	30	20	6	5	B (71)
20	Victor Cruz	43	13	8	6	B- (70)
21	Reggie Wayne	40	12	10	7	C+ (69)
22	DeAndre Hopkins	36	22	7	4	C+ (69)
23	Larry Fitzgerald	43	15	5	6	B- (69)
24	Marques Colston	38	14	11	5	C (68)
25	Sammy Watkins	41	16	7	4	C (68)
26	Michael Floyd	41	15	5	5	C (66)
27	Golden Tate	35	17	8	5	C (65)
28	Julian Edelman	34	10	12	7	C- (63)
29	Emmanuel Sanders	37	3	15	7	C- (62)
30	Michael Crabtree	40	8	7	5	C- (60)
31	Eric Decker	37	10	6	6	D+ (59)
32	T.Y. Hilton	35	12	8	4	D+ (59)
33	Mike Evans	33	22	3	1	D+ (59)
34	Brandin Cooks	33	14	8	3	D (58)
35	Torrey Smith	38	10	5	4	D (57)
36	Kendall Wright	36	10	5	5	D (56)
37	Steve Smith	30	12	8	5	D (55)
38	Anquan Boldin	34	8	6	6	D (54)
39	Kelvin Benjamin	32	9	7	4	D- (52)
40	Terrance Williams	31	14	4	3	D- (52)

The Jets aren't going to have an answer for Brandon Marshall. I don't think much else needs to be said there.

I'd be shocked if Kirk Cousins and DeSean Jackson didn't hook up for a few big plays down the field. Jackson has yet to get unhinged this year, but you can bet he'd like nothing more than to torch his former team. If Allen Hurns can burn the Eagles deep, surely D-Jax can, too.

If Alshon Jeffery and A.J. Green are on the field, they belong in your starting lineup. End of story.

No, I don't trust Emmanuel Sanders this week, and I don't love Demaryius Thomas, either. I think if Manning is going to get after the Seattle defense through the air, he's more likely to beat them with Julius Thomas rather than challenging Richard Sherman and the corners by focusing on the wide receivers.

Players I think will continue building off to strong starts to the season for fantasy owners: Percy Harvin (the Broncos remember him all to well), Jeremy Maclin (the offense dictates so many opportunities for him) and Mike Wallace (two weeks of double-digit fantasy points in a row!).

Players I'm having a hard time trusting: Victor Cruz (what the hell has happened to Eli Manning?), Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd (Drew Stanton hurts Floyd more than Fitz, for what that's worth) and Sammy Watkins (I want to love him, I really do, but EJ Manuel gives me pause).

It's a bit harder to gain a grasp on wide receivers this early in the season. While we can generally get a feel for a quarterback's prospects a few weeks into the season and running backs often have value simply based on the work load they are getting, a receiver's production can wax and wane from week to week. It's an erratic position in general, which makes the Calvin Johnsons of the world so valuable. 

More times than not this early in the season, if you have a top receiver, you should trust him. Maybe you'll hit it big on a sleeper, but the chances are higher that you'll wish you'd settled for the eight or nine guaranteed points from your top guy when that sleeper selection inevitably has two catches for 29 yards and no touchdowns. 

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
Rank	Player	Ability (0/50)	Matchup (0/25)	Offense (0/15)	Consistency (0/10)	OVERALL GRADE (0/100)
1	Jimmy Graham	50	10	15	10	A+ (85)
2	Julius Thomas	46	15	14	9	A (84)
3	Vernon Davis	44	20	11	8	A (83)
4	Rob Gronkowski	47	10	13	9	B+ (79)
5	Zach Ertz	41	16	12	7	B (76)
6	Greg Olsen	39	18	7	7	B- (71)
7	Jason Witten	40	12	10	8	B- (70)
8	Antonio Gates	37	16	10	6	C+ (69)
9	Charles Clay	34	20	5	5	C (64)
10	Kyle Rudolph	35	17	5	6	C (63)
11	Jordan Cameron	42	5	9	7	C (63)
12	Martellus Bennett	38	4	10	6	C- (62)
13	Dennis Pitta	36	14	4	3	D+ (57)
14	Delanie Walker	33	7	7	4	D- (51)
15	Larry Donnell	30	9	6	3	D- (48)

Tight end is another position where you should almost always trust your big names since there are five or six truly consistent players at the position.

This week, the only surprises I found were that the rankings dropped Jordan Cameron out of the top 10 given a tough matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (they've allowed an average of 2.5 points per week to opposing tight ends, second in the NFL) and bumped Charles Clay up to No. 9 (the Chiefs were excellent against tight ends last year but have already given up 10 receptions for 104 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends this year).

Beyond that, it's business as usual. 

Defense

Rank	Defense
1	New England Patriots
2	Carolina Panthers
3	Cincinnati Bengals
4	Houston Texans
5	Baltimore Ravens
6	San Francisco 49ers
7	Arizona Cardinals
8	Dallas Cowboys
9	Kansas City Chiefs
10	Indianapolis Colts

Kickers

Rank	Kicker	Team
1	Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots
2	Cody Parkey	Philadelphia Eagles
3	Shayne Graham	New Orleans Saints
4	Dan Carpenter	Buffalo Bills
5	Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers
6	Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts
7	Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears
8	Steven Hauschka	Seattle Seahawks
9	Dan Bailey	Dallas Cowboys
10	Greg Zuerlein	St. Louis Rams

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy questions and make some corny jokes too. It's more fun than playing hot potato with James Jones.