College Football Picks Week 3: Odds to Avoid from Top 25 Slate
Parity seems to be sweeping the world of college football by the year.
It sure isn't in the Vegas odds department.
No, college lines are as difficult to figure out as the ludicrous, thankfully extinct BCS system. It applies to most games in most weeks, but this week seems to be worse than most thanks to the big schools of the Top 25 choosing to beat up on the little guys.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
For those who straight-up pick games, it's an easy affair. For those who bet spreads and have to deal with the eye-popping margins, it can be an exercise in patience and stress management.
Below, let's nail down a few games to ignore outright after a look at the entire weekend lineup.
2014 College Football Week 3 Top 25 Odds
| 1 | Florida State Seminoles (38) | -- | -- | -- |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks (16) | Wyoming | ORE -43 | ORE, 50-10 |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide (1) | Southern Miss | ALA -49 | ALA, 58-20 |
| 4 | Oklahoma Sooners (2) | Tennessee | OU -21 | OU, 42-23 |
| 5 | Auburn Tigers | -- | -- | -- |
| 6 | Georgia Bulldogs (1) | at No. 24 South Carolina | UGA -3 | UGA, 45-35 |
| 7 | Texas A&M Aggies (2) | Rice | A&M -30 | TAM, 63-7 |
| 8 | Baylor Bears | at Buffalo | BAY -27 | BAY, 52-3 |
| 9 | USC Trojans | at Boston College | USC -20 | USC, 38-21 |
| 10 | LSU Tigers | Louisiana-Monroe | LSU -28 | LSU, 46-16 |
| 11 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Purdue | ND -29.5 | ND, 35-28 |
| 12 | UCLA Bruins | at Texas | UCLA -6 | UCLA, 34-20 |
| 13 | Michigan State Spartans | -- | -- | -- |
| 14 | Mississippi Rebels | Louisiana-Lafayette | -- | MISS, 42-15 |
| 15 | Stanford Cardinal | Army | SU -27.5 | SU, 38-20 |
| 16 | Arizona State Sun Devils | at Colorado | ASU -13.5 | ASU, 24-13 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech Hokies | East Carolina | VT -11.5 | VT, 28-21 |
| 18 | Wisconsin Badgers | -- | -- | -- |
| 19 | Kansas State Wildcats | -- | -- | -- |
| 20 | Missouri Tigers | Central Florida | MIZZ -9 | MIZZ, 42-23 |
| 21 | Louisville Cardinals | at Virginia | LU -10 | LU, 30-24 |
| 21 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Kent State | OSU -26.5 | OSU, 31-23 |
| 23 | Clemson Tigers | -- | -- | -- |
| 25 | BYU Cougars | Houston | BYU -14 | FINAL -- Thursday, Sept. 11 -- BYU 33, Houston 25 |
Note: All odds, updated as of 8 p.m. ET on Sept. 12, are courtesy of Odds Shark. AP poll via The Associated Press.
Odds to Avoid
No. 9 USC Trojans (-20) vs. Boston College
The Steve Sarkisian era is underway in full force after the USC Trojans did what most figured they couldn't last week by rolling into The Farm and taking down the then-ranked No. 13 Stanford Cardinal, 13-10—essentially beating David Shaw at his own game.
For bettors who have been around the block, alarm bells just went off in a major way. Why? A couple of reasons:
- Letdown potential after a season-defining win.
- A first-year coach just nailed that season-defining win and has to stay the course in the aftermath.
- All of that taken into consideration, trips across the country are never easy.
Feel free to add in the fact that Boston College is not that horrible.
Sure, Matt Ryan isn't under center, but the Eagles have the firepower to hang around if Sarkisian's widely heralded attack made famous at Washington slips up.
Dual-threat quarterback Tyler Murphy threw for 173 yards and a touchdown in a 30-7 win over Massachusetts to start the season but added another 118 yards and a score on the ground. It was much of the same in a 30-20 loss to Pittsburgh, as Murphy went for 134 yards and a score through the air and 92 yards and a score on the ground.
As Michael Lev of OCRegister.com notes, Sarkisian is all about containing Murphy this week:
Of course, the schools before him attempted to plan against Murphy as well, and it clearly didn't work out so hot.
Look, nobody is suggesting USC is going to lose outright, but a wealth of factors say a borderline three-touchdown spread is a bit much. For at least one week, steer clear of the Trojans when it comes to the spread—even if they made a certain segment of fans a large amount of coin last week via an upset.
Prediction: USC 38, Boston College 21
No. 21 Louisville (-10) vs. Virginia
On one hand, this seems to be a perfect spread.
Sans Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville still has a pretty potent offense that put up 66 points against Murray State (for what it's worth) and took down Miami (Fla.) to start the season, 31-13.
In that contest, quarterback Will Gardner misfired just eight times and threw for 206 yards and pair of scores. Running back Dominique Brown, otherwise known as a superb workhorse, took 33 totes for 143 yards and a score.
But be careful to not simply dismiss Virginia, especially at home.
The Cavaliers are known for strong defense, as always, and put that on full display against Richmond last week in a 45-13 drubbing (again, for what it's worth, although seven takeaways is mightily impressive). But what should really catch the eye of bettors is the job the defense did to start the season against then-ranked No. 7 UCLA.
In that game, Mike London's team held a prolific Bruins offense to 358 total yards and a 7-of-18 mark on third downs. Most impressive of all was the job done to Heisman contender Brett Hundley, who threw for just 242 yards and no scores.
Louisville coach Bobby Petrino is well aware of the problems the unit can cause.
"They have two really active defensive ends and a couple good guys inside that push the pocket, so most of their turnovers have come as a result of pressuring the quarterback and either the quarterback fumbling the ball or having to throw under pressure and have an interception," Petrino said, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com.
It's concerning, then, that Gardner remains a work in progress, as Jeff Greer of The Courier-Journal in Louisville illustrates:
"Like I said above, Gardner's had a couple of good-not-great performances so far. He hasn't thrown a pick, but he has missed a few throws. His inside-his-own-10 fumbles were cause for concern against Miami, and I'm not ready to declare Murray State anything other than a glorified practice, so his progress will be evident on Saturday.
"
So the Cardinals hit the road with a developing player under center and encounter a great defense. Again, it is not to suggest that Louisville will lose outright, but is the spread really worth a significant investment when gains in this sort of pursuit are based on smart risks?
Probably not.
Prediction: Louisville 30, Virginia 24
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
