USA vs. Serbia: Early Preview and Predictions for 2014 FIBA Championship
Team USA's run to the 2014 FIBA World Cup championship has been as expected—blowing out opponents on the scoreboard, even amid some struggles against the tournament's better teams. As for their opposition, it has been anything but.
When Serbia advanced to Friday's semifinal, it expected to see Spain there. Instead, France upset the Spanish in the quarterfinals and allowed for the Serbians to defeat the French 90-85 and advance to face the Americans.
USA Basketball previewed the clash:
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Mike Krzyzewski's squad hasn't overlooked any of its competition thus far, but what was previously a slew of tune-ups to face the hosts Spain is now an affair with the tournament Cinderellas, who will again be confident of their chances.
Let's break down the gold medal clash almost nobody expected—USA and Serbia.
Team USA vs. Serbia: 2014 FIBA World Cup Final
When: Sunday, September 14, 2014
Where: Barclaycard Arena, Madrid, Spain
Start Time: 5 p.m. ET (9 p.m. GMT)
Preview
After playing eight games in the FIBA World Cup, it's safe to say the Americans know what type of team they are—even if they haven't completely figured it out.
Offensive contributions are largely being led by strong play in the backcourt and on the wings, with Kyrie Irving, James Harden and sixth-man Klay Thompson all scoring 16 or more points against Lithuania. Lobs are of the norm with Anthony Davis playing well, and burly forwards Kenneth Faried and DeMarcus Cousins are anchoring the post.
Coach K has also learned that he can go deep into his lineup with success, as Derrick Rose and Rudy Gay have stepped up to the task when their number has been called.
USA Today's Sam Amick added an interesting note on Gay:
But slow starts have plagued this team so far in Spain, especially when going up against a team that plays with fluidity and chemistry. And Serbia has certainly taken notice.
A group of players not mentioned in NBA circles have paved the way for the Serbians, with Milos Teodosic, Miroslav Raduljica and Stefan Markovic proving dangerous in the starting lineup. They shoot the ball extremely well from the outside, with a 39.9-percent clip for the tournament.
They also have Bogdan Bogdanovic, a first-round pick in this year's draft. His big fourth quarter against France helped prevent a late French comeback and was alluded to by his team, the Suns:
Team USA has impressed on the defensive side of the ball, buying in and respecting the abilities of their opponent. But getting off to another poor start could be detrimental against a team that has learned how to hold onto leads.
Predictions
Another Slow Start for Team USA
It may not be the clash with Spain that they expected, but the Americans will face their toughest foe yet in Serbia and it will reflect on the early parts of this one.
Team ball has been the way to success for the Serbians, who have been incredibly consistent with their approach ever since the tournament reached the elimination stage. They lost to Spain to close out the group stage, but afterward outscored opponents in 10 straight quarters before France mounted a late comeback in the second half Friday.
As for the Americans, they only led Slovenia by seven points at the half and followed that up with another slow start against Lithuania. Despite outmatching the opponent greatly, Team USA only led by eight at the halftime break.
Coach K is fortunate that his team is so talented and can rely on sheer skill to brisk past any opponent it faces, but he can't be encouraged by teams like Lithuania and others in the group stage who started strong against the Americans.
The Americans will figure out Serbia eventually, but it won't be immediate.
Americans Will Win Big
It might be inevitable that Serbia will start out strong and prove to be a bigger test than most anyone expected, but an eventual Team USA victory is all the more inevitable.
The Americans' third-quarter domination hasn't been a coincidence. While it can take some time for these guys to figure out their opponent, it's still a team with 12 notable NBA players—most of whom are stars. When coaching adjustments are made and the teams start to go deep into their rosters, it becomes a very lopsided affair when Team USA is playing.
Serbia will be the best team the U.S. has faced, but the Serbians aren't on the level that Spain is. Like Lithuania, Australia, Turkey and all the other impressive teams the USA has played, they have holes that Coach K will be quick to attack.
As The Associated Press' Tim Reynolds forecasts, the win might as well already be decided:
It will be tougher than expected for Harden, Steph Curry and company, but the Americans will repeat as FIBA world champions with a dominant second half.
Prediction: USA 94, Serbia 70
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