Can Anyone Spoil Spain's Run to the FIBA World Cup Final?
Much about the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup is considered a formality. Upsets, Cinderella stories and general surprises are ancillary storylines capable of only temporarily delaying the inevitable World Cup final matchup that pits Team USA against Spain.
But is it that simple? Is the outcome that predetermined and mindless and inviolable?
For Team USA, it most certainly is. Coach Mike Krzyzewski's crew has yet to put forth an even performance, but while that's normally a red flag and cause for concern, Team USA hasn't needed to play with gilt-edged consistency and precision.
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Nor will it have to.
Two victories separate Team USA and a World Cup final appearance—two wins that must come against clearly inferior opponents. Spain's run is more complicated. Its bracket is lined with competitors that pose legitimate tests.
Are any of those tests enough to torpedo the inevitable, or will each of Spain's next two opponents peak as steppingstones to the unavoidable?
France
Next up for Spain is France, whom it dispatched without much resistance during group play.
Spain took down France 88-64 in that contest on the backs of Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol and Serge Ibaka. The forthcoming matchup doesn't figure to end any differently.
France lacks the physical size to combat Spain's frightening front line. Rudy Gobert is its best line of defense against the Gasol brothers and Ibaka for his sheer size and physicality, but he's used sparingly—14.3 minutes per contest—and doesn't have the quickness to keep pace with mobile bigs.
In its most recent victory over Senegal, Spain's terrifying trio combined for 10 blocks. France has a problem scoring as it is; its 74.2 points per game rank outside the top half of participating teams. Scoring 69 points—as it did in a win over Croatia—won't cut it against Spain's second-ranked offense.
Not having Tony Parker really hurts France's chances overall, let alone against the tournament's second-best team. As someone who can put points on the board and break down interior defenses with his incisive dribble penetration and high-arcing floaters, Parker has the chops to render this clash competitive.
Led by Nicolas Batum, Thomas Heurtel and Boris Diaw in Parker's absence, France doesn't have the size, defense, firepower or requisite offensive structure (ball movement) to unseat Spain's well-rounded attack.
Serbia
There's something about Serbia.
Aesthetically, you can't quite put your finger on it. Statistically, you shouldn't be overwhelmed or impressed. Nothing about this team incites fear. It shouldn't even have made it this far.
And yet here Serbia is, one win over Brazil away from shocking the world—literally—and meeting Spain.
Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nenad Krstic played like stars off the bench in Serbia's 90-72 victory over Greece, combining for 31 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Miroslav Raduljica continued his interior assault as well, recording 16 points on a scorching 7-of-12 shooting to go along with six rebounds. Even Nikola Kalinic joined the festivities, throwing down a pair of energizing poster dunks.
Three-point shooting has helped Serbia a great deal to this point. Economical shot selection—only 18 long-ball attempts per game—has kept its efficiency in check, giving Serbia the third-best conversion rate from deep of any participating team.
Unflappable resiliency has, however, been the team's best quality by far. Serbia's roster isn't the most talented, and there are undoubtedly those willing to attribute recent success to good luck, but this squad is always fighting. It was Serbia, in fact, that handed Spain its toughest test thus far.
"There were even plenty of positive moments against Spain," Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal writes. "No one has really kept things close for long against the host country, but Serbia at least played the Spaniards closer than anyone else."
The scoreboard—89-73 in Spain's favor—won't reflect such triumph, but that deficit is a moral victory by itself. Spain's six wins have come by an average of 26.2 points per contest; Serbia's 16-point loss is the closest matchup the Spaniards have been forced to navigate.
That comes as little comfort when assessing the likelihood of an upset, though. Serbia—like France, along with pretty much every other team—cannot rival Spain's front line, nor does it have an answer for the constantly moving Ricky Rubio and moderately used, still-effective Jose Calderon.
In the event Brazil falls on Wednesday, Spain will firmly hold the upper hand, leaving Serbia with little to no hope of advancing any further.
Brazil
Look no further than Brazil to find Spain's biggest threat.
Brazil must first take down Serbia before planning for Spain, but it's safe to assume the team fresh off dismantling Argentina makes it that far.
The combination of Nene, Anderson Varejao and Tiago Splitter is what you'll want to watch here. They don't exceed the potency of Spain's Big Three, but there's enough talent to keep this relatively close. Like SB Nation's Mike Prada explained leading into Brazil's win over Argentina, the backcourt also stands to be an enormous X-factor in any game.
"The offense hasn't always been smooth," he writes, "but the wizardry of point guard Marcelo Huertas, the speed of Leandro Barbosa and the three-man tandem of Anderson Varejao, Tiago Splitter and Nene inside has been enough."
Depth has served Brazil well, too. It has two studs coming off the bench in Nene—assuming he stays there—and the volume-scoring Raul Neto. Where most teams—with the exception of Team USA—build attacks around three, four or five guys, Brazil's dependency stretches seven deep.
All of which is remarkable...and potentially irrelevant.
Spain upended Brazil during group play like it was no more than a fading blip on an expansive radar. Pau Gasol torched Brazil's front line for 26 points, and it was hard-pressed to find offense outside Varejao and Barbosa.
Repeating such stagnancy—40.6 percent shooting—guarantees another double-digit loss.
Scarier still, Brazil could play top-notch basketball on both ends and still walk away with heads hung low and shoulders sagged, their hands completely empty.
Embracing the Inevitable
Assumptions exist for a reason: Spain is playing incredible basketball.
"Spain is a very, very good team," Ukraine coach Mike Fratello said, per The Associated Press (via USA Today). "They're very good. They're big, they've played together for so long, the majority of the team, and they do things that you have to do. They pass well, they're skilled."
Banking on Spain meeting Team USA in the final isn't presumptuous, obnoxious or premature in nature. It's the most accurate guesstimate there is.
Spain is considered Team USA's biggest threat—subscribing to the theory it has one, of course—and while its path to the final round isn't paved in pushovers, it's too talented for any remaining opponent other than Team USA to contend with.
This squad can do everything. Playmakers are everywhere. Creating open looks is second nature. So, too, is knocking them down. Protecting the rim comes easy. Spain has almost every area covered. Its performance is intimidating, even for Team USA, the Goliath of international play.
And if Team USA has reason to think twice about Spain, the idea that France, Serbia or even Brazil can do more than offer a surmountable test is wishful—and whimsical—thinking.
*Stats courtesy of FIBA.com unless otherwise noted.
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