Mayweather vs. Maidana 2: Storylines to Watch in Saturday's Rematch
Some labeled it luck for the underdog, Marcos Maidana. Others declared it the gradual demise of Floyd Mayweather.
Saturday, both schools of thought will be put to the test in the biggest fight of the year, a rematch that made too much sense to not book.
The first bout between Mayweather and Maidana was met with little fanfare. Many surely opted to skip out on the costly pay-per-view; after all, Money's opponent was just another number that would fall en route to his assuredly safe 50-0 mark.
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Maidana didn't play along, though, and employed a quantity-over-quality approach to great dramatic flair that caused an uproar and assured him a rematch, not to mention a bigger individual purse now that he is billed as a serious threat.
Is he? Saturday's rematch will reveal all, for better or worse. Beforehand, let's take a look at some of the biggest storylines the bout has to offer fans.
Mayweather's Aggressiveness
Fans know the deal with Mayweather. He sits back, chooses his spots and makes the judges decide in his favor. For casual fans, it surely makes for a boring affair.
But has the revelation that he isn't bulletproof forced Mayweather's hand?
There is an outside shot that fans will get to see a rare, aggressive Mayweather Saturday night. Not one who continually plows forward but one who takes any and every opportunity to counterpunch with as much force as possible—one who peppers in an extra swing into those deadly retaliation counters.
He might not have a choice.
Public perception is a heck of a thing. After Maidana threw 858 punches to Mayweather's 426, not to mention seeing Money actually on the ropes for the first time in a long time, controversy arose when Mayweather still won.
As Golden Boy Promotions notes, a win is not enough for Money:
With pressure on judges thanks to the so-called "controversy" of the last result, the gap may need to be much closer for Mayweather to win. This is a slippery slope for him, though, as he expects Maidana to fight dirty once again.
"I can't really say how the fight is going to play out, but I'm pretty sure he's going to be once again extremely dirty and wild," he said, per Eurosport, via Yahoo.com. "My job is to keep everything under control the best way that I can."
He's not wrong, either, as Maidana threw a couple headbutts and seemed to even attempt a low blow at one point during the first match. The first cut of Mayweather's career came after a headbutt in Round 4.
So while it is understandable to focus on Maidana's offense, keep a close eye as to what Mayweather's approach will be. Provided both men stay upright and go the distance, it will be the decisive factor Saturday night.
Changes From Maidana
The burden of the most significant changes in a rematch always falls on the loser.
Maidana didn't seem to get that memo.
“This time around I’m not going to get tired. I’m going to be on him from the opening bell, for the entire fight. And I think that’s going to force him to fight,” he said, as per Bleacher Report's Kevin McRae.
Of those 858 punches the first time around, Maidana landed 221 of them, which is the highest total landed against Mayweather in the 38 bouts that CompuBox has tallied. So in theory, it makes sense for Maidana to keep the pedal to the floor.
But against one of the greatest of all time, charging head first with the exact same strategy is bound to cause issues. Mayweather is sure to adapt, and really, we can never be sure just how much of the last fight was for entertainment purposes on Money's end—it's not like any future fight was more attractive than a rematch with someone who gave him a scare.
Besides, if Maidana wants to mix in some dirty tactics this time around, the officials have learned from the first fight, too. Referee Kenny Bayless is the man in charge this time, and he has penalized Maidana in the past for infractions.
The point is, if Maidana does not change up his approach, it is a rather massive tactical blunder that will make the job of the judges—should it get that far—entirely too easy.
Prediction
Mayweather isn't losing this fight.
Maidana's admirable showing the first time around deserves plenty of credit, but that was his chance. With the one-dimensional approach that he brings to the ring, that was his one chance to surprise Mayweather and pull off the historic upset.
He had his opportunity. Maidana is not a versatile fighter. To ask him to drastically change now would result in a massacre, and the lack of change against Mayweather, now that he knows how to approach the fight, means this one will turn out as most figured the first fight would.
Last time, Maidana almost whiffed on 75 percent of his punches. Now that Mayweather has a blueprint and little can change from his opponent, a unanimous decision is to be expected.
Stats per CompuBox, via ESPN.com's Dan Rafael.
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